Solak wrote:1. Eddie Royal is available. Since I don't have to play a tight end would it be wise to pick him up and drop Tony Gonzalez? Asside from better numbers, Tony is my 6th player with a week 8 bye. Eddie is off week 9
Even though I said in general WR > TE for scoring, both Gonzalez and Celek are likely to score more points than either of the DEN WRs. So I wouldn't drop them. And at the start of the season, I always prefer to accumulate the most talented players I can (rather than take a lesser player because of looking ahead to bye weeks). A lot can happen by the time your bye weeks roll around.
Solak wrote:2. Who looks better? Eddie Royal or Jabar Gaffney? Is it either/or?
No one really knows. If you remember, Eddie Royal had a terrific rookie year in 2008. But he was awful last year. Gaffney has never been more than a journeyman WR. Though with Brandon Marshall out at the end of last year, he clicked tremendously with Orton (21 catches, 280 yds, 2 TDs in 2 games). I had the choice between the two in a PPR league and went Gaffney myself. Most rankings I've seen rank Gaffney higher. But both should be starters. Maybe both will be good ... or both might suck. That's what you get when picking guys at the end of the draft.
Solak wrote:3. Is it worth trying to pickup the Miami Defence or will SD be enough?
I never start the season with 2 defenses (the same for kickers). Early on, I think it's critical to fill my bench spots with skill position guys. With your borderline roster spots, it usually takes a few weeks to figure out who stays on your team and who can be kicked to the curb for a better FA (just don't get crazy and drop someone good for a flash in the pan - everyone's capable of putting up good number for just one game).
You'll certainly want to cover the bye week when it rolls around. I usually just drop my worst player and pick up whoever has the best matchup that week (like whoever is playing the Rams, Raiders, Chiefs is a good bet to look good that week). I might just drop the DEF I drafted if I wasn't liking what I was seeing. Same thing with kickers. It's just a waste of a roster spot to carry more than one. Much better to take a chance on a sleeper skill position player (at least to start the season). Or a handcuff who is one injury away from vaulting to incredible value (like Sproles, Westbrook, Donald Brown, etc).
Solak wrote:4. The league is being hosted on Yahoo and they have "projected stats". How seriously should I take these. My first weeks matchup shows me at only a 4 point advantage. (I'd like more.) <grin>
Also it shows Jonathan Stewart's first week expectations to be rather low (10.35) compaired to LeSean (12.61). I also see wierd things like Eddie Royals projections being double those for Jabar Gaffney (who is down in the mid 6s every week.)
How seriously should I take Yahoos projections? is there a better source for projections out there?
Don't sweat the projections. With your roster, I find it hard to believe that you won't be favored most weeks anyway. They tend to overstate matchups (like you might find in a given week David Garrard is predicted to score more than Drew Brees). And they can be slow to pick up on changes (either in playing time or performance).
McCoy being favored over Stewart isn't a surprise. McCoy is expected to be the primary ball-carrier in Philly (and has a lot of receiving ability as well), while Stewart is on the wrong end of a RBBC with DWill. And as for Royal/Gaffney ... those projected numbers may change a lot. Yahoo isn't consistent. In their WR rankings, Yahoo ranks Gaffney ahead of Royal - so it makes no sense that Royal would be projected to score double. But that's how it is.
The Yahoo "experts" will give out rankings at each position prior to each weekends games. Those are much better than the numerical projections you're looking at. And there are many sites that will have their own rankings. This site has a nice Sit/Start feature that you can look at as well. Experts will inevitably disagree sometimes. And that's where your own opinion comes in. It's your team ... ultimately go with what you think, rather than blindly following any expert. But it's always good to hear other opinions, to better inform your own.
And finally, when it comes to making your starting decision - ALWAYS START YOUR STUDS!!! Barring injury or bye weeks, your first 6 draft picks should always be in your lineup. Don't overthink matchups with them (even if Yahoo projects someone else to do better). It's just a losing game. Of course it's possible for some players to truly drop in performance (or a bench guy to increase) ... but that takes several games to make a decision on.