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Jermichael finley= antonio gates!

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Re: Jermichael finley= antonio gates!

Postby Matthias » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:10 am

bagobonez wrote:I really like him too, and would be surprised if he doesn't finish top 3. Having said that, if I can get Brent Celek a full round or 2 later, I'm going to wait, which is what i did in my 12 team league. Celek had 900 and 8 TD's last year, and I expect him to duplicate or improve upon those numbers in 2010 with Kolb. I don't see Finley having a drastically better year than 900 and 8 TD's, so I can't justify taking him a round or 2 earlier than guys like Celek and Witten.

I think this is a mistake. Given their respective prominence in their offenses, I think Finley is extremely more likely to return value than Celek. Celek is much more likely to come back to the pack and even if he doesn't, I see Celek's upside as equal to Finley's downside with Finley's upside being WR1 numbers.

Passing on Finley only to draft Celek a round or two later is to be too clever by half IMO.
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Re: Jermichael finley= antonio gates!

Postby WeekSixteen » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:17 am

As a Wisconsin local I can see why there is hype around Finely. He is a great talent and poised to make the next step. However, he is at best the 3rd option and more realistically the 4th option for Rodgers behind Jennings, Driver, and Jones. To be a monster TE like Sharpe, Gonzalez, and Gates they have traditionally been the top passing option on their offense. I do like Finely more in non PPR leagues because he will get some TDs this year, maybe as high as 10. But I don't see the catches and yardage to justify him being one of the top guys.

I wrestled with trading Gates and Louis Murphy for Finely and Maclin but I just don't want to part with a guy in Gates that has been the man for a long time. I picked Gates as a breakout TE after his 1/3 season his rookie year and it worked out. Part of me wants to do that with Finely but I don't think people are being realistic which means he is being overvalued. Rodgers is as good as they come in fantasy but being the 3rd or 4th option on that offense... Top 12 yes, top 5, maybe...
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Re: Jermichael finley= antonio gates!

Postby DaShiz23 » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:45 am

I think this looks like the 'hype-train' doing it's best/worse. Depending on when your draft was, you were either able to get him as great value late, or are having to slightly overpay now. With people talking about 3rd or even 4rth round, he seperates himself from the pack even more, meaning you CAN draft guys like Celek more than just 2 rounds later. This is creating more value for the TEs ranked in the #4-8 range. Value-wise, I think 5th is about right, though I might even still pass (if I was drafting) because a TE at this spot can be counter-productive. You are going to have to pass on a decent RB2, WR2 or even a QB at this point to fill that TE spot.
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Re: Jermichael finley= antonio gates!

Postby Matthias » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:50 am

I guess I'd phrase it this way: I view Witten and Celek much closer to Shiancoe than I view them to Finley. If you're not buying the Finley hype and want to pass on him, I can see that. IMO he's going to finish as the #1 TE this year. But if you think otherwise, definitely justified. But what I wouldn't do is then say I'm going to pass on Finley and then scoop Celek. Rather I would pass on Finley and take Clark early or the bottom of the good, not great TEs late.
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Re: Jermichael finley= antonio gates!

Postby Azrael » Thu Sep 02, 2010 12:49 pm

I wouldn't really view Finley as the "3rd or 4th" option. I don't think that's necessarily how Rodgers goes through his progressions, first looking at his WR options and then looking to Finley if they aren't open. That could be the case in some plays but it seems there are quite a number of plays where he's the first or 2nd option, where they've used the WRs to spread everyone out and get him in a big mismatch with a LB and run him up the seam or something like that. If you just look at how Finley had been injected into the offense after he came back from injury the last 7 games you can see he's more than just a 55-65 catch guy. He's a huge weapon that they rely on, quite possibly one of their deadliest considering his size and agility and the defenders teams are forced to use to cover him.
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