I too have the third pick in my draft on Wednesday. I have been agonizing all week. I think that the third pick may be the most difficult this year.
I really think the debate comes down to MJD or Rice. Gore and Turner are solid options, however, I think they are just a notch below Rice and Mojo.
This injury speculation does not help MJD's case.
Yesterday, though, I finally came to a decision.
While I think MJD will have a fine season, his stats last year say to me that he may have reached his ceiling. Rice did what he did with limited touches and should see an increased workload this year.
If you look at McGahee's touches, alot of them were in garbage time in decided games after Rice had already gotten his.
Also, I think Rice has more potential to outshine last year's stats than MJD. I am trying to win the league, not do well. Rice is a bigger role of the dice, but that I've always been boom or bust in fantasy football and have some league championships to show for it as well as some less than desireable finishes, but at least I went with my gut and my gut tells me Rice.
This is coming from someone who did their college internship with the Jacksonville Jaguars, so while it is difficult to pass on MJD, this early injury stuff coupled with the fact that Rice is on a MUCH better team running behind arguably the best offensive line in footbal, makes me think Rice is the home run pick capable of being the number one fantasy back by year's end.
I've always been a gambler and this year will be no different.
Good luck with your pick.