I gt him in the 4th round 6th pick in 12 team. I'm going to call that a steal. He's looked good, you only hear great things and he's on a great passing team. He could be the Ray rice of this season, but I wouldn't pencil that in just yet.
12 team ppr and I'm sold so far on what his production will mean to me. Top 10 rb # isn't out of the question.
I draft in a more competitive league next Sunday and I hope I can get him in the 4th again, but that is highly doubtful.
If we add Chris Brown, Foster, Slaton, and Moats stats together from last year this is the line you get from Houston's RBs...365 carries, 1,351 yards, 13 TDs, 81 catches, 690 yards, 5 TDs. So this year it is just Foster and Slaton basically. I think Foster will likely get 2/3 or better of the work this year. Small sample size for sure but Foster was much better rushing the ball than the other Texan backs last year. I can see the guy getting 1,200-1,300 yards rushing, 300-400 receiving and atleast a dozen TDs.
Azrael
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This is exactly why I don't draft this late, it's just way too easy for guys. Look at the value you probably got with Foster if you've drafted already, especially before Tate was injured. In our 2010 ppr mock draft here on the Cafe i got him at 8.12 which was held in mid July, even if it's a redraft I really hate to wait for all the pre-season games to play out.
I easily see him finishing top 10, it's a really explosive offense, he looks great, has been a bulldozer in the red zone, I think he's a steal even in the 3rd round because his numbers could rival most of the RB's taken in the 1st round. He should have plenty of games like the one previously vs Dallas. When I was doing most of my $$ league drafts a few weeks ago I was going WR/WR/WR/TE and he was available in the 5th round at most of those spots, he's one of the reasons i felt I could get away with that this year. If it was earlier in the summer I would have squeezed out a QB like Romo or Schaub in the 5th before taking him, and nearly every time I drafted him someone told me I reached for him.
Sucks for the people who haven't drafted yet, and there may be people in your fantasy league who really don't pay attention too much to what's going on and at this point Foster is an easy selection, even though diehard fantasy owners were pegging him as a sleeper last year in May the moment Houston & Kubiak gave him a shot.
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How much do I believe in him? I'm HOPING (big hope) that he drops to me in the end of the 4th. He reminds me of a Ray Rice except he has been getting more exposure these days. I'm HOPING that my money league will sleep on this guy but I watched him play and he reminds me of last year when I was watching Ray Rice. I took Rice in the early 4th and people were clamoring "too early". Proved them wrong. I am HOPING Foster comes to me at the end of the 4th.
I think he'll be one of the biggest stories of fantasy football this year, and I like the comparisons to Ray Rice, depending on when your drafts were this year and last their adp was probably very similiar and I see the final results ending up being the same.
Only difference is there is alot more reason to be excited about with Foster because even if you didn't think he was that talented there is noone to steal carries, hell Jeremiah Johnson(another guy I really really liked in Dynasty circles coming out) was getting more valuable carries then Slaton and looked better. Add to that Slaton has turf toe now, and JJ was barely in the game, Foster will get all the goal line attempts, he could really have a monster season.
I want to temper expectations, but with his situation, and how he looked vs Dallas, I don't see how top 10 isn't going to be easily attained.
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To me, this is absolutely a Ray Rice situation all over again. I was routinely getting Foster outside of the top 90 or so picks in my snake drafts, and for only 4-5 bucks in my auctions. Steadily, he's been climbing the ADP charts and by the time my main draft occurs over labor day weekend, I'm sure I'll be drafting him as an RB2 at something like a 4th round equivalent auction price. Last year, Rice was slipping to my RB4 all throughout July and most of August, then in a RB late draft approach I took him in round 4 as my RB1 in my main league. I certainly wasn't disappointed.
It's obviously a lot to ask of Arian to do anything close to what Rice did last year, but I believe in him just as much as I did Ray at this time last offseason. Everyone who drafted him in July absolutely got away with murder. I know I've taken him in every single mock I've done.