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PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby RBManiac » Wed Sep 01, 2010 2:36 am

First off, excuse me, for this is the first article i am writing about fantasy, I have 15 years experience, so what I talk about
isnt just off the top of my head. I hope you all appreciate this article


PPT(Points Per Touch): Average fantasy points players produce everytime they touch the ball


Ive been using this system for a long time, and after 4 years of success with it, im 100% it is something to pay full attention to when selecting running backs on draft day, and being successfull on the waiver wire. Knowing PPT will give you that edge you have been looking for. PPT tells us alot more to whats going on than say...previous years YPC(Yards Per Carry), or Fantasy Points. Workload is just as important to know, but it doesnt tell us everything to expect from a Running Back going into a new season regardless of the hype or source you heard it from.

I personally never came across any article or person discussing PPT.
When ever I ask someone if they know a running backs PPT, they almost always they say...I Dont know?, whats that? and/or where can i find that out?. These arent just the average joes, some of these replies have been from people in my 15th year keeper league.


Below is a some very good examples of how PPT can give you that edge in your league.


DeAngelo Williams

After the selection of Stewart in 2008, many owners where skeptical about drafting Williams. In fact, most owners where avoiding him completely. Why?, DWill was averaging a solid 5.0YPC, and 0.94 PPT. All Williams needed was the touches, and thats exactly what he got...295 of them for a 1.02 PPT. DWill finished 2008 the NO.1 fantasy back. DWill caught alot of people where surprised. Not me, His PPT(0.94) was the reason I felt so excited to draft him after stewart was taken, and it paid off big time.


Jammal Charles

In 2008, he averaged 0.98 PPT, and 5.3YPC. WOW, and "why is this guy still on waivers?", I asked myself. It was easy to tell Larry Johnson was going down the tubes before the season started. I picked up charles in week 1 and left him on my bench because my PPT system told me it was the right thing to do. It was well worth the wait after he helped launch me into the playoffs in 2 of my leagues.

Pay attention to PPT.


If a feature running back continues to see a decline over the years in PPT, it is a strong indication that another
back on the team is ready to take over the work, but which one? Id bet its the one who has the strongest PPT. Im not talking running backs who carried the ball just a couple of times last season for a 1 yard TD. A player to qualify for PPT would have to at least gotten 45-50 touches during significant times, not when its a blow out the last game of the season and they put him in when the defense is completely worn down....Leave those guys out of PPT because there is simply not enough info to make an accurate prediction

If a running back is getting alot of hype to take over the starting role on his team, then knowing his PPT, and the
starters PPT will give you a better idea on how likely that is going to happen..

(See Chris Wells, and Tim Hightower below)

Will there be an even split?

Will he take over the starting role?



The following pages contain a list of 40 Running backs and their PPT's based on 1pt/PPR along with some notes to go with it.
Be sure to check out the FAQ at the very end of this article

Enjoy!







Sorted by team.


ARIZONA


Beanie Wells

2009 - 0.77


Tim Hightower

2008 - 0.88
2009 - 1.00

Wells's 0.77 is not that bad on a team made for passing, and Wells looks to improve off his rookie season, but im not
expecting him to put up RB1 numbers with Hightowers solid 1.0 still getting a chunk of the carries.

Hightower looks to improve too, this is one of reasons why Hightower is still listed as the starter. He is more effective,
and he is highly undervalued. Expect an even time share, or could we? I like Hightower being more productive this year
than wells. I know it is totally against everything that is being said, but it just seems this is not totally out of the
realm of being true. Hightower is more effective than wells in a number of ways... Pass Blocking, picking up the blitz,
recieving, and the nod for goaline carries. The coaches also continue to praise Hightowers Versitiliy over Wells.

All these signs are pointing in Hightowers direction, so why be 100% sure wells will be the guy this year? You really cant be.
Thats why im staying away from wells in drafts. To me, and my PPT system, his draft value is not worth the risk.
Id much rather grab hightower as my flex in the later rounds. Its better value with little risk from the spot
you are taking him.

On other note the cardinals are going to be running the ball more, and wells looks to improve his 0.77 PPT. These two can
very much cancel each other out in fantasy.


Giants

Brandon Jacobs
2007 - 0.76
2008 - 0.91
2009 - 0.63


Armad Bradshaw

2008 - 0.77
2009 - 0.85

Impressive PPT for a linebacker build if you dont count in last season.
Knee Injury a factor, but on the other hand...

Bradshaw showed an improvment with bad feet during the season, the predictions are about right as
he has been nothing short of impressive this preseason, however jacobs has shown us some flashes, and all
signs point to his knee being 100%. Jacobs has also shown he is the much better back for tuff yards, and goaline looks as
bradshaw continues to struggle in that area. Expect about an even time share with jacobs getting the nod for goaline carries.

Both backs have their ups and downs. Jacobs is the better goaline back, and pass blocker while Bradshaw is the better reciever
and playmaker. Passing down duties should be split as well.



Vikings

Adrian Peterson

2007 - 1.01
2008 - 0.69
2009 - 0.91

For some reason Peterson had a horrible PPT in 2008 coming off a record breaking rookie season.
Im not sure what really happened there, but he still finished the NO2 overall back that year in
PPR. He had a very heavy workload that masked his poor production, but it looks like he bounced
back with an impressive 0.91 last year to finish as the No 2 overall back once again.



Titans

Chris Johnson

2008 - 0.85
2009 - 0.96

0.96 as a bell cow is very impressive. I have no doubts in selecting him the First Pick. Draft with confidence,
but be sure to hancuff Javon Ringer



Ravens

Ray Rice

2008 - 0.74
2009 - 1.00

Mcgahee

2007 0.68
2008 0.75
2009 1.29

Rice will continue to see a full workload although I would like to see them use Mcgahee more often than they are, im a big fan of McGahee
outside of fantasy. I know Rice owners dont want to hear that nonsense, but Mcgahee has steadily improved his per touch every year.
The reason for his 1.29 last year might be because he vultured so many TDs inside the 5 yard line.
McGahee is one of the more vaulable handcuffs.


Jaguars

MJD

2006 - 0.94
2007 - 1.03
2008 - 1.08
2009 - 0.88

There is a significant decline in PPT, but ive noticed players who recieve a full workload the following year almost always have a lower PPT
than the previous year, and thats only common sense, same with YPC, but this can also let you know if running backs are ready to do it again
the next year. Jaguars drafted the Freakishly athletic Deji Karim in hopes of him spelling MJD on few series a game. Jaguars dont want to
overwork their precious back. Expect a decline from last years numbers, but not by much...MJD is a lock to be a top 10 overall player.

There still really isnt a clear handcuff for MJD although Jennings has been given the nod, and that might change, but if you really must
grab a handcuff to MJD this early, you might as well put jennings and Karims name on paper, and just blindly pick one out of a hat.
I say wait some time untill you get more info. His backup will most likely be available of waivers. I see no reason people should be
owning one of those backs if they dont own MJD.


49ers

Frank Gore

2005 - 0.72
2006 - 0.87
2007 - 0.76
2008 - 0.80
2009 - 0.99

Frank Gore is coming off a career high in PPT, he is fully ready to be the workhorse once again. Draft with confidence the first round.


Falcons

Michael Turner

2004 - 0.63
2005 - 0.90
2006 - 0.84
2007 - 0.54
2008 - 0.72
2009 - 0.75


Jason Snelling

2009- 0.84

You see an obvious decline as the years pass with turner. Lets face it, the Burner is getting a bit slower, and older.
We still like him in the first round in PPR, his workload will force him into the TOP 10 RBs.

Jason Snelling's 0.84 means he is a very fine backup. He has already proven that he can be just as effective when he takes over
after an injury.

Rams

Steven Jackson

2006 - 0.94
2007 - 0.74
2008 - 0.76
2009 - 0.65

Another back on a steady decline, and bradford looks far from ready to play
in the NFL. Nothing is really improving in St louis.

Once again its jackson who will be carrying his team.
How much longer can this poor man hold up before he gets injured?
I really really disagree with anyone who takes jackson the first round, i say it every year, he is not worth a first round in PPR.

A first round pick to me is someone who will most likely finish in the top 15 overall players.
When has Steven Jackson ever finished the top 15 overall? 2006, it was the last and only year Jackson entered the TOP 15 overall players.

Top 10 fantasy RB? Yes, i cant argue with that one, thats why he is worth a 2nd round pick. Unless your one of the last picks in
a 20 team league, there might be better options the first round.


Panthers


DeAngelo Williams

2006 - 0.80
2007 - 0.94
2008 - 1.03
2009 - 0.84

Johnathan Stewart

2008 - 0.80
2009 - 0.87

DeAngelo saw a major decline per touch in 2009(0.84).
stewart was a little bit more effective, but not by much (0.87), and its also worth a note
that Stewart was less effective than Dwill against some tuff run defenses. Another thing to
pay attention to is that most of stewarts effectiveness came after a change of pace when Dwill had
already wore down the defense. While Dwill was injured, Stewart had a cake matchup week 17
against a pour Saints run defense who was also resting most of their starters. You can tell the
saints took a break, stewart had his highest YPC of the season that game(7.8 YPC).

Does this say Dwill will be the better back this year?, no. Does this mean Dwill is the better
all around back?, Yes, but we already know this. If both stay healthy, expect an even time share,
and Dwill is going to be slightly more productive. Dwill is the back to own, but stewarts draft
value is better, but We already know this =)

KC

Jammal Charles

2008 - 0.98
2009 - 1.00

Very solid numbers for someone slated for a full workload this year, charles also had
9.3, and 7.6 YPC in his first 2 preseason games. Draft Charles in the late first - to early
second round with confidence.


JETS

Shonne Greene

2009 - 0.57

Shonne Greene, had the absolute worst Points Per Touch among all the top
RBs last season, even compared with the other RBs rookie seasons. On top of that
30% of all Greene's yards and all of his TDs where against a piss pour raiders run defense.
In fact, the only time greene was effective was against bad run defenses, but like we saw
with Petersons 2008 per touch (0.69), a heavy workload can mask all of this, but the 0.57 per touch
is too hard to ignore, especially since he is not a reciever, im staying away from Greene
in all PPR formats along with standard, not because im calling in the bust label, but because
it will cost me a high draft pick to get him. This is something to keep in mind come draft day,
and if you already drafted Greene, i would suggest trading. A handfull of people on this site
know im anti-greene, but the numbers dont lie, and his Strengh Of schedule is even more frightning...
the first 6 games have nightmare matchups againsts the run including Ravens, Patriots, and Vikings,
and after bye week 7, they face the packers. If that doesnt send greene owners a chill or two down
their spine, greenes playoff matchups are also hell starting with 2 tuff divisional weeks 13(patriots),
and 14(dolphins) which is the weeks most owners need a win to claw their way into a playoff spot,
followed by Playoff weeks 15, and 16 Steelers, and the Bears who have Julious Peppers now to spice
things up. These last 4 teams will most likely be fighting for playoff spots to add to the horror,
but like i said, a heavy workload can mask this somewhat, but dont
fully expect greene to be a Top 10 back this year.

IM not too much worried about LT as he was a solid 1.01 in 2007, but he continues to see rapid
declines in per touch 2008(0.8), and 2009(0.73), still LT2 continues to be very effective on passing downs,
which is strong indication he will see most of the time as the 3rd down back.

Saints

Pierre Thomas

2007 - 1.14
2008 - 1.20
2009 - 1.04

Reggie Bush

2006 - 1.11
2007 - 1.18
2008 - 1.24
2009 - 1.41

Pierre Thomas and Reggie bush are the best backs in the league on a per touch basis.
Are Defenses that terrified of the pass that they cant help but to give
up good runs, or is the Crusier really that good? The Crusier is really that good.
If this was the case of elite QB play, then how do we explain Mike bells poor per touch (0.55)?
Not the best example, For 2 years, PT has been predicted a top 10 RB in PPR.
Now you really see why, if PT can get the touches he desevers, he will indeed finish as a TOP RB
in PPR. He is great value in the 3rd. Most of the people reading this article know his value, but
consider this reassurance.

Reggie Bush has eye popping numbers on a per touch basis, this is mainly do to his open field
playmaking ability, and his return TDs, but he has a poor rushing YPC the first 3 years because
he danced to much and hesitated to hit the hole, Reggie is 25 now, and finished off 2009
with a 5.6 YPC, what changed in 2009? His running style between the tackles and he also
finishes off all his runs, He doesnt hesitate anymore and he fights for yards after contact.
Bush has finally matured into an all around NFL RB. Like his YPC matters in fantasy...
had 208 points in 2008 with only 10 games...WOW. Bell, and Hamilton are out of the picture,
i love Reggie as a mid RB2 this year with RB1 upside barring injury. If he
is sitting around round 6-7 like he has been falling too in some 10 team ppr drafts,
you would be crazy not to take him.

If saints RBs still are not in your tastes, than consider this...

Pierre Thomas and reggie bush claim the highest team % of targets inside the (10yard) redzone
than any other RB in the league. Number 1, and 2. Lets just hope Sean Peyton doesnt screw things
up for us again this year, he is a value killer with his RBBC schemes, and he could have PT and
bush all over the field only to have someone like betts vulture 1yard TD runs.
But betts is old, and thankfully Hamilton is gone as well.

Colts

Joseph Addai

2006 - 0.80
2007 - 0.90
2008 - 0.73
2009 - 0.91

Steelers

Rashard Mendenhall

2009 - 0.77

Im not counting his 20 touch 2008 season due to his devestating injury,
and mendenhalls 2009(0.77) only looks to improve to 0.85-0.90 to say the least.
Add in, Big bens suspension, and you have a solid first round pick.

Packers

Ryan Grant

2007 - 0.85
2008 - 0.53
2009 - 0.76

Coming off a poor 2008 to a so so 2009(0.76), grant only looks to be
improving this year, as he was much more effective on a per touch basis in 2009.
I can easily see why grants value has risen, if you had any doubts of drafting
him as early as he is going, you dont anymore. We dont know what really happened
in 2008 especially coming off the 0.85, maybe it was O-line problems mixed in with
a nagging injury. Thats well in the past now, and Ryan Grant is safe to draft
as a high end RB2 in PPR.

Denver


K. Moreno

2009 - 0.70

I always give RBs the benefit of the doubt going into their second seasons
there is almost always an improvement in per touch, and i can easily see moreno heading for
an 0.80-0.85, he is a solid pick in PPR slated for a full workload.

Houston

Arian Foster

2009 - 0.99

Foster is the clear back to own in the texans backfield, and dont listen to anyone when they say tate. Foster can have monster year with a full workload. If he stays healthy...I can easily see top 5. He should be going in the late first round, but thats ok...dont draft him there if you dont believe me...i couldnt argue with you taking Rodgers over him.

Eagles

Shaddy Mccoy

2009 - 0.80


Not bad at all, and now he is the feature back. I wouldnt be worried about mike
bell, he averaged a lousy 0.55 PPT in the saints backfield with virtually the same amount of touches
Pierre Thomas had, and PT had 1.04. Mccoy is the guy, i fully expect Mccoy to finish this year at a
+ 9.0 , and having the bulk of the carries.

Dallas

Felix Jones

2008 - 1.87
2009 - 0.84

Thats a pretty major drop off between 2008 and 09
Thats what to expect with more than 100 extra touches, but not
that major, He should of been near the 1.00 at least.
This looks like it was more of a case of injuries, and we know felix is fragile.
Draft at your own risk

Still somewhat better than...

Marion Barber

2009 - 0.78

Maybe it was nagging injuries, I can see both in an even timeshare
despite what you hear elsewhere.

Choice

2009 - 1.01

Choice has shown to be the much better talent of the group showing a team leading 5.5YPC,
and the healthiest of the bunch also, why he is not the starter is beyond me, i bet its more of
the coaches dedication to the starters than talent. Choice has the build to be a bell cow
untill otherwise. He is worth a late round flier. You struck gold if Jones,
and barber have early season injuries. Unless your drafting Choice in the late rounds, i would stay
away from this backfield. I just dont trust it for fantasy.

Seahawks

Justin Forsett

2009 - 1.08

Thats very impressive as a rookie, but be carefull, leon washington is very
much in the picture with carries now that he is healthy, so exoect another RBBC here.



Bears

Matt Forte

2008 - 0.80
2009 - 0.68

Chester Taylor

2007 - 0.96
2008 - 1.10
2009 - 0.92

Forte's impressive 0.80 performance with nearly 400 touches was outstanding, and also
very upsetting to owners in 2009, but forte was dealing with a nagging knee injury along with
probly the worst o-line in the league. His 2010 outlook is much
better, Mike Martz will probly have defenses spread all over
the place like he usually does leaving some breathing room for for forte.
He is also much more healthier this year, so expect a bounce back
Forte should be drafted as an strong RB2 this year.


Chester taylor is 30 now, but he posses far better catching skills
than forte, and like Ricky Williams, chester doesnt have alot of miles.
IF you own Forte, Taylor is a must have handcuff, especially after
fortes poor 2009 performance.

Dolphins

Ronnie Brown

2007 - 1.05
2008 - 0.86
2009 - 0.86

After being fully recovered froma major injury, browns
1.05 dropped near a full 0.20, but still very impressive
as he finished out the whole 16 games. In 2009, brown
continued the same 0.86 clearly showing he lost a step
after the injury. Then, he does it again, has one more season ending injury.
I can only expect brown to decline on his per touch in 2010.

Ricky Williams

2008 - 0.75
2009 - 0.90

Ricky's NFL career as well as his fantasy outlook has been a big up
and down rollor coaster spawning from when he was first drafted by
the saints, hes old yes, but fresh, and he doesnt miss games with major
injuries like Brown does. Draft Williams this year as your high end RB3
with upside of a high end rb2. Only reason Im not calling him an RB2
is because of his age, and you never know what can happen with age.
Ricky williams is one strange running back.

Chargers

Darran Sproles

2007- 1.12
2008- 1.51
2009- 1.26

Just like reggie bush, the little rocket can fly and is very
dangerous everytime he touches the ball, and he will continue to
see the same touches this year. Draft Sproles as a low end to mid RB3/flex with upside.
But there could be better options than sproles. Still he is worth grabbing,
despite an impressive preseason from matthews, sproles is in the realm of getting
some more touches this year, and thats even better. he can very much come
close to 200pts in PPR



Tampa Bay

Caddilac Williams

2007 - 0.56
2008 - 0.54
2009 - 0.71

If a feature running back continues to see a decline over the years in PPT, it is a strong indication that another
back on the team is ready to take over the work, but which one?


Not impressive, darren sproles out produced him on
less than half the carries, and newly emerging Super Sleeper
Kareem Huggins is lurking as the new No2 RB. Kareem huggins is
a very dedicated and hard worker, the coaches love his
work ethic, and his blazing 4.28 speed only helps as he makes a
very strong statment with his preseason games averaging 6.1YPC
with the first team offense. If huggins can continue his impressive
work in the preseason, he might be headed for an even time share with
Williams, and if coaches are that confident in the kid to give him that
work, then its not totally out of the picture that he will emerge as the no1 by week 6.
Expect Clifton smith to handle return duties

Huggins was suppose to emerge as the No.2/3 last year, but an injury blew his
chance to show his stuff as he sat out all of preseason.
I wouldnt feel safe drafting Williams expecting him to emerge as my RB2. Hes not
coming close, he might be headed for an even bigger decline this year.
Draft him as an RB4, and dont expect anything else. keep a close eye on Huggins
in the meanwhile.

Browns

Jerome Harrison

2008 - 1.02
2009 - 0.80

With 350 touces, Harrison can easily finish off the season as a top 10RB so pay
atttention to the workload, But that is highly unlikey he will get that workload with hardesty lurking.
As of now harrison is the no1 back, and can be safly drafted as an low end rb2 with hardesty in the mix,
but i would be skeptical drafting harrison this year. Nothing is a sure thing with RBBCs.







UPDATE: I think your better off following predicitons based off PPT when it comes to drafting RBs, like others said below, its essentially a QB like rating, but for RBs.

Combine expected workload with this system, and you will be surprised how accurate it is...of course there are things that cant be seen..like sudden injuries, but if you look at Turners backup Snellings PPT, you will see that he is a must handcuff as we saw the last couple of weeks in the season.
Last edited by RBManiac on Thu Sep 30, 2010 2:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby RBManiac » Wed Sep 01, 2010 2:50 pm

FAQ:

How do I figure the PPT for the running backs based on my leagues settings?

If you want to figure out the PPT, then simple Divide the total fantasy points of a running back in your league by the number of touches he had(Rushing attemps and receptions). Yes receptions too, even though its not PPR, they still count as touches.

Does this system work for TE's and WR's?

Not really, Recievers should have a high PPT, and their totals are too shifty from year to year, for some reason this only works on RBs.



anymore questions or comments? Any flaws you might see in this system that i can help explain?
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby 2ksports » Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:25 pm

I would recommend that you make some bold picks for this year based on PPT and separate that out to a different section. For example "Based on past PPT, expect these players to explode this season: Player1, Player2, Player3"

I wonder what other people think about this metric as well. The fact that you were able to identify both DeAngelo and Charles ahead of time is impressive. I'm working on a tool right now to scrape and organize fantasy football data for metrics that are not often included on a basic player page, such as targets, and now thinking of adding PPT.
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby dgan » Wed Sep 01, 2010 8:02 pm

To me, this is kind of like QB Rating. You know how well a QB performed by looking at all the stats - the QB Rating should just be confirming what you already figured. Unfortunately, it can also be misleading. It can be useful in projecting known fantasy workloads, but I'm not buying that it can 'predict' who the good or breakout RBs are.

This is essentially YPcarry, YPcatch, and TD per touch combined. What it doesn't calculate are non-TD money yards and the "workhorse" factor. For example, a goal line back will have astronomical PPT because they will hardly touch the ball outside of the 2 yd line. It also won't take into consideration the sliding scale of a workhorse back, especially when differentiating between offensive schemes. Offenses that like to run a lot and play conservative are going to have a lot of 1 and 2 yd runs. This really reduces the RB PPT. However, they are getting a lot more opportunities. Other offenses will throw all the time and run draw plays which will really boost the PPT. If the QB gets sacked, then throws an incompletion, then they run a draw play for 12 yard gain and punt, the RB PPT takes a boost. Also, receiving RBs have the benefit of "targets" not counting against their PPT becaust they didn't touch the ball. It was incomplete for 0 yds. A back runs for 0 yds, and it kills their PPT.

The point is, goal line and 3rd down specialists always have better PPT because they aren't doing the yoeman's work getting the dirty yards in the middle of the field. Yet, those yoeman RBs are among the best VALUES in fantasy football. Take for example the Browns or Patriots - does anyone really care who has the best PPT there? Those offenses are going to rotate players no matter who is being more productive.

I think it is much easier and much more reliable to predict a RB workload than it is to predict a RB talent. Others disagree (see J. Charles and S. Green threads). Now, PPT can help predict workload - the Hightower/Wells info is very useful because it shows that the big name (Wells) has not shown anything that points to him being a workhorse back this year. He will still share with Hightower.

So I think it has some uses, but I would not recommend leaning on this as the edge you've been looking for. The eye test and simple understanding of the offensive scheme being employed for each player is still the best way to scope out fantasy prospects.
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby bagobonez » Wed Sep 01, 2010 8:36 pm

Interesting article, thank you for taking the time to post it. I tend to agree with dgan though, this is a useful tool as far as mixing it in with the other ways you estimate a RB's value, but should not be the sole predictor of fantasy points projected. If S.Greene gets only .6 PPT but has twice as many touches as someone averaging 1.2 PPT, then it's a wash. And when you factor in TD's or lack thereof, it really can distort the stats. For example Greene only had 2 TD's last year which is going to hurt his PPT, because Thomas Jones was the goal-line RB. That figures to change in 2010. But again, it's another tool I'll put in my tool belt when considering how I want to value players. Appreciate the post!
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby RBManiac » Wed Sep 01, 2010 10:10 pm

You guys are right, it can be misleading, but not as often as you think.


Here a clip of an article just posted recently on Yahoo in lkight of the Beanie wells/Hightower situation. It was Titled, Hightower isnt going away sorry Wells owners


More weenie than meanie, Beanie has grossly underachieved this preseason. Pesky gnat Tim Hightower has outplayed, outgained and outhustled the former top pick in nearly every facet of the game. His standout effort last Saturday in Chicago is a prime example (Watch highlights here). Though Wells has shown some improvements across the board, he continues to struggle executing the little things. Blitz recognition is still a work in progress.



I have argued this fact in my PPT system, I said I know its against everything that is said, but its not out the realm that hightower is going to outproduce wells this season.

I say if you want a somewhat accurate prediction, combine all info you know about a back with his PPT. For example, i was reading alot of news about how the coaches love hightowers playing ability. Then i compared his PPT with wells, and said to my self..this guy is not going away, and worst case scenario besides injury...Hightower and wells will have an even split
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby RBManiac » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:04 am

Also, receiving RBs have the benefit of "targets" not counting against their PPT becaust they didn't touch the ball. It was incomplete for 0 yds. A back runs for 0 yds, and it kills their PPT.


The only way this would be true of Rollercoaster effects on PPT, you would have to only do the PPT of one or two games. This is why it must work for the whole season. If you notice, PPT is very accurate as to how far a back can go the next season. The only time you really see more than a 0.30 jump in PPT is when backs get more goaline runs. (Willis MgGahee)

But if you already know he is a goaline back, then you know he is not going to be a monster the next year. PPT averages for running backs really dont change much as the years go on. If there is big changes, its usually one of these things.

Major Increase in Goaline runs
Injury
going into the second year.


Forte and jacoobs saw big declines..this is cause they had nagging injuries..if they both can stay 100%, then expect a rebound season. Alot of people dont believe in Forte and Jacobs. IF you look at their PPT and what they are capable of , then you can expect a rebound. IF a running backs is coming back from an injury, and he has a career hihg PPT of only 0.75 in 3 years, then you know he is not going to do much. That will give you an idea of which backs to take a risk on in the mid rounds if their are no great choices left
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby CJ2KHimself » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:19 pm

Thank you for writing this article, i am new to this site, and the fact that it shows hightower isnt going away before the news hits is amazing. It is essentially what the other guy said. Its like a QB rating. My ppr draft is coming soon, and im going to use all of this info to help me make a more accurate selections of RBs

THANKS RB!
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby LMack » Thu Sep 02, 2010 3:59 pm

This is a useful tool. However, projecting opportunity is still the most important thing to keep in mind when calculating fantasy goodness. Goal line carries, RBBC's, the list goes on.
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Re: PPT(Points Per Touch) is important for drafting RBs

Postby RBManiac » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:09 pm

This is a useful tool. However, projecting opportunity is still the most important thing to keep in mind when calculating fantasy goodness. Goal line carries, RBBC's, the list goes on.


Exactly, combining workload and other known factors such as goaline opportunity(Tim Hightower) makes this a very strong system.

I would recommend that you make some bold picks for this year based on PPT and separate that out to a different section.


Well yeah...ill just make some bold predictions right now.

Tim hightower becomes an RB1..lol JK!

Beanie wells start the season off with a dead even split, and hightower will be the more effective fantasy back. Towards mid season...Beanie gets hurt and has to sit out 2 games. Hightower produces RB1 numbers during these weeks. Beanie gets back and is not as effective as before. not 100%. Tim hightower then continues to see the majority of the carries throughout the season and finshes off as a low end RB1.


^^^beanie was hurt, and did miss 2 games..lol, but its still possible they cancel eachother out, hightower still is the goaline and passing down back, and beanie does look to be injury prone

Shonne Greene turns into an early round bust putting up only low to mid RB2 numbers if that.

LT, turns into the biggest fantasy suprise, and puts up similar numbers to his 2007 season before getting injured during playoff weeks.

Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas finish in the Top 15 backs.


Jacobs gets a load of goaline carries all season turning him into his 2008 status, im just saying...jacobs can really push the pile when 100%, i mean the man runs over Linebacks like it was his hobby. Bradshaw simple cant do that.

Jammal Charles Finishes the No 3 overall fantasy back right ahead of reggie bush.

Steven Jackson doesnt break the top 20 backs unless Bradfords talent is truly flawless.

By week 4, the whole browns backfield becomes a fantasy nightmare with Harrison seeing the 50%, Davis and Hardesty will split the rest.


Forsett becomes a full time starter.


Kareem Huggins becomes a fantasy god after Williams gets injured.


Forte has a nice bounce back.

CJ Spiller Becomes the the Rookie of the year in front of Ryan Matthews and Mike williams.

Chris Johnson Gets hurt and Javon Ringer becomes the new CJ2k




Jacobs gets a load of goaline carries all season turning him into his 2008 status, im just saying...jacobs can really push the pile when 100%, i mean the man runs over Linebacks like it was his hobby. Bradshaw simple cant do that.



UMMMMMMMMMM NO!!!!!! I should of said he becomes droppable...lol
Last edited by RBManiac on Thu Sep 30, 2010 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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