Will the Real Steve Smith Please Stand Up?

[u_fig_eater]

Is Steve Smith (NYG) a rising star? Or is he a one-year wonder?

Projections from experts, shown below, are sending mixed messages.
ESPN: 98 receptions, 1188 yards, 6 TDs.
fftoolbox: 95+ receptions, 1100+ yards, 7+ TDs
CBS: 96 receptions, 1135 yards, 6 TDs
fftoday: 83 receptions, 1,089 yards, 6 TDs.
Yahoo: 90 receptions, 968 yards, 4 TDs.

Everyone is projecting a decline. Awarding 1 point per 10 yards and 6 points per TD, the highest projection is 155 points (ESPN), and the lowest is 121 (Yahoo). This is a 28% discrepancy.

In 2009, Steve Smith set the New York Giants' franchise record for receptions (107) while collecting 1220 yards and 7 TDs. The Giants are redeploying all of their skill position players (and, as far as I can tell, their entire O-line) for the 2010 season. Smith appears poised for another great year. Why is there such a spread in the projections, and why is everyone predicting a down year?

[liono123]

I think it's a two-part answer, at least as far as projections go:

1. The emergence of Hakeem Nicks. Towards the end of last season, Nicks showed that he's the most talented receiver in that bunch. Eli loves the guy. 16.8 yards per catch will make any QB take notice.

2. Transition to a more run-oriented offense. That's the idea, at least, but I don't buy it. With Jacobs being as much of a bum as he is, I still see Eli throwing a whole lot.

I think Smith will have a fine year, a slight downturn from last year, but not too much. Nicks is going to do very nicely.

[bagobonez]

I think it's a two-part answer, at least as far as projections go:

1. The emergence of Hakeem Nicks. Towards the end of last season, Nicks showed that he's the most talented receiver in that bunch. Eli loves the guy. 16.8 yards per catch will make any QB take notice.

2. Transition to a more run-oriented offense. That's the idea, at least, but I don't buy it. With Jacobs being as much of a bum as he is, I still see Eli throwing a whole lot.

I think Smith will have a fine year, a slight downturn from last year, but not too much. Nicks is going to do very nicely.

This. Though I still think Smith will lead the team in receptions and yardage, Nicks is going to be the big play WR.