I drafted Rice in my fantasy league this year with big expectations. A rival has started talking about McGahee stealing goal-line carries again, and alot of 2 RB sets. I assumed McGahee would be kind of "LenDale White'd" out of Baltimore this year, receiving very little carries and work compared to last year.
Does anyone have the straight-dope on the situation?
I was a rice owner last year. Mcgahee scored 12 TDs last year, which was annoying, but it didn't prevent Rice from having an awesome season. it was always hard to tell exactly how much work mcgahee was going to get. at the beginning of the season it was like rbbc, with rice getting the lion's share of the split. then towards the middle, it seemed like the ravens forgot mcgahee was on the roster. try not to get too upset when mcgahee hawks a TD, cause rice will get his. posted mcgahee weekly stats from last yr. Wk Opp Att Yd TD F Pts 1 KC 10 44 1 19 2 @SD 15 79 2 20 3 Cle 7 67 2 16 4 @NE 5 11 0 8 5 Cin 1 -2 0 0 6 @Min 7 3 0 0 7 BYE - - - - 8 Den 2 -1 0 0 9 @Cin 0 0 0 0 10 @Cle 13 35 0 3 11 Ind 6 25 0 2 12 Pit 5 18 1 7 13 @GB 4 -4 1 6 14 Det 12 76 2 19 15 Chi 4 9 0 1 16 @Pit 2 17 0 1 17 @Oak16 167 3 34
In the past, guys like Tiki Barber and Willie Parker got royally hosed over for the goal line stuff. However, I think that Rice's youth will still get him his touchdowns from 10+ yards out from time to time. I wouldn't get too caught up in it, for every running back in the league will have some that get away from him due to fullbacks, goal line backs, change-of-pace backs and quarterback sneaks. Just bank on the talent and the points will be there.
As long as McGahee is on the roster, he will still vulture TDs from Rice. I don't think the problem will be any different this year. In fact, I can see BAL utilizing McGahee even more in their last year of having him on their roster.
I can still see Ray Rice scoring from anywhere on the field, so the goal-line carry problem doesn't really bother me. He is good enough and elusive enough to bounce it outside from inside the 5 and dive at the pylon.
I think the fact that only one of Ray Rice's TDs was from within the five is a GREAT thing for his value. Rice is improving and McGahee is getting older. If Rice's TD total doesn't double this year I'll be relatively shocked. I'm not going to lie, I see Rice breaking 20 total TDs this year and being tossed in the conversation as 2011's #1 pick.
His schedule isn't great but the other weapons on his team aren't great redzone targets either. Housh is big but nonathletic compared to the DBs in the league, Boldin's a stud but can't score 30 TDs. Rice is that sneaky little guy who comes out of the backfield up in the middle, off the edge, down the sideline, on a pitch, on a dumpoff, the man piles up yardage. 700+ REC yards in his first season as the starter! He broke 2000 rush/rec yards! His yardage was easily better than that of MJD, but he had half the TD total. I think he'll be overvalued in 2011 drafts unless they're PPR, cause then he will be the consensus #1, but in non-PPR I'm still a CJ4.24 or AD guy.
QB Orton/Flacco WR Calvin WR Nicks WR Crabtree/Dez/MW RB Rice RB Charles TE Finley/Zach Miller/Hernandez W/R McCoy W/R Blount/BJGE
McGahee getting that GL TD yesterday was definitely disheartening, but if you watch ten minutes of a Ravens game it's clear who the real RB1 on the roster is. Last night they had a slick playing surface and Rice was faced up against the best defense in football. He just missed breaking a couple of runs and slipped on another one where he could have easily tacked on ten extra yards. He's going to get his, and his schedule really isn't that difficult at all. It's not the easiest, but if Ray Rice ran Ryan Mathews schedule, I would have picked Rice over CJ.
Ray Rice will finish as the #2 RB this season.
QB Orton/Flacco WR Calvin WR Nicks WR Crabtree/Dez/MW RB Rice RB Charles TE Finley/Zach Miller/Hernandez W/R McCoy W/R Blount/BJGE