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Arian Foster will be top 5

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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby Kareighuis » Mon Oct 04, 2010 1:27 am

(just saw this!)
LS2throwed wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:My concerns about him haven't changed since a discussion I had with another cafer 2 weeks ago-
"A) he still has fumbling issues, and Kubiak makes that a major issue;
"B) the Texans ranked bottom three in rushing last yr; [edit- they were 30th overall in y/g and 30th in yards per rush]
"C) their best lineman last yr, Pitts, joined Seattle,
"I see little reason for that kind of optimism.

Now, turning it on you- What is your reasoning for why you think he'll be a top-whatever you think?


LS2throwed wrote:I think your over thinking it K.

I've never been accused of that. :-D

LS2throwed wrote:He didn't fumble yesterday, and even if he does have fumbling issues they are not worse then Steve Slatons', and even if Foster did who is going to take over? Not Slaton. His leash isn't nearly as short because Tate is out, Slaton has shown he can't be that pounder they are looking for, and he also never had a performance like this.

My point was that Kubiak will pull guys for fumbling. I wasn't arguing that the replacement would be a more effective RB, or that the replacement wouldn't fumble. Simply that fumble mean no field time. Heck, with Hou's offense, they could go 3-4 wide.

LS2throwed wrote:why would you care what they were ranked in rushing LAST year? I don't get that. They were rolling with Slaton and a banged up RB core, Slaton is not a pounder and you can't rely on pounding the ball with him so it's understandable. I just really don't see any correlation between what they were ranked rushing the ball 1 year without using Foster at all and using Slaton, and trying to compare it to the year they have a big workhorse back.

That, to me, is relevant because it displays the coach's inclination. Whether because he thought the QB and passing offense was better than the RB and the running game, or that the line could pass-block better than run-block, I don't know. It's a weak reed to rely on, which is why I didn't base my entire argument on it.

LS2throwed wrote:Did it look like they missed Pitts yesterday? They were absolutely mauling people out there, yes it was the Colts but it's not like they didn't have Bob Sanders still, but that line was driving people off the line. The same line that was driving the Cowboys 5 yards off the ball that nearly put Foster at 85 yards in limited play week 3 of the pre-season.

If a bad line lost it's best player, that's important. If I had the time, I'd try to figure out how that line suddenly started blasting holes in opposing d-lines. I've seen game footage of it and the turnaround is surprising.
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby FFslacker » Mon Oct 04, 2010 2:45 am

joejlitz wrote:
Azrael wrote:No I do not expect him to rush near 33 times again. 20-25 touches a game will happen more often than it won't. Backs catch quite a few passes in Kubiak's offense so he'll catch is fair share when they throw. Just because you don't draft the guy in the first or 2nd round doesn't mean he can't be a huge player for you. Sometimes you land a Frank Gore 2006. Unless the guy gets hurt there just aren't many RBs that are going to outproduce the guy on a weekly basis. Seriously I would expect him to be atleast near 100 yards rushing or better more often than not.


I'm late to this sell-high thread, but I hope you guys got your money's worth. Dude is unbelievable. Unstoppable. Doesn't play the first quarter and still finishes with 125+ rushing yards, 50+ receiving yards, and 2 TDs. You don't need to touch the ball 20+ times per game when you can break one off for 74 yards! ;-D


And sadly he didn't play for much of the 2nd quarter either. :-b
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby Sex Panther » Mon Oct 04, 2010 10:49 am

Going back to last year's last 2 games (which he started), 6 game sample size...

124 carries, 753 yards, 6.1 YPC, 14 catches, 178 yards 12.7 YPR, 8 total TD, 1 Fumble Lost...

20.6 carries, 125.5 yards, 2.3 catches, 29.7 yards, 1.3 TD, .2 FL average... that's a sick 22.9 Standard scoring FFPPG average.

Extrapolated over a 16 game span, that projects to an INSANE 330 carries, 2008 rushing yards, 37 catches, 475 rec. yards, 21 total TD, 3 FL....

He's ahead of that pace in 2010...

21.3 carries, 134.3 yards, 6.3 YPC, 2.8 rec, 38 YPG, 1.25 TD per, .25 FL... 24.2 stanadrd scoring FFPPG.

341 carries, 2149 rushing yards, 45 catches, 608 rec. yards, 20 total TD, 4 FL... 387.7 standard scoring FF total pts.

The guy is an absolute BEAST on an explosive offense.

I think the most telling game he's had was the Dallas game - guy averaged over 6 YPC vs a good D & went over the 100 yard mark on only 17 carries. With the weapons around him, the QB behind center, a line that often gets overlooked as one of the better lines in the NFL, a pretty juicy schedule, and the divison they play in; at this point I think it's pretty safe to say it will be a suprise if he DOESN'T finish top 5.
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby Icemanzdoinwork » Mon Oct 04, 2010 1:08 pm

So who sold "high" and didn't get near enough in return after week 4? I was offered mjd str8 up and stood by Arian.

My 3 backs gore/foster/Bradshaw (flex). 2 top 7 backs and at least a top 15?
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby LMack » Mon Oct 04, 2010 5:37 pm

Texans have a pretty neutral schedule the rest of the the way, and Foster seems to shred that.
Foster seems to be the type of back to make the first guy miss.

The 2010 Scouting Report from Scouts Inc.
Foster is a good-sized ball carrier with adequate speed and above-average foot quickness and agility. He has a tendency to dance around in the backfield too much and needs to learn to just lower his shoulder and get what he can. He is a good receiver out of the backfield, but not much of a factor in downfield routes.


NFLDraftScout.com
Isn't the sum of his parts. Lacks elite top-end speed to challenge deep and the explosiveness out of his breaks to consistently gain separation. Inconsistent hands. Allows too many balls into his chest, resulting in some ugly drops. Struggled with a knee injury late in the year and had to leave the Senior Bowl practices early as the pain flared up again. Knee requires a medical check.


Good lateral movement, accelerates quickly, deceptively shifty. Everyone was down on Foster as far as pure speed goes. The lists go on, but the rest is pretty much the same.
Maybe he's come into this year physically changed. Maybe the Houston offense and it's passing threat and O-line helped his situation greatly. But it seems that a lot of his runs he is getting the matchup that he works best at, 1 on 1 on the outside. He makes one move, runs by a defender and gets wrapped up down field. Whatever it is, he's been electric.
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby joejlitz » Wed Oct 06, 2010 7:13 am

Icemanzdoinwork wrote:So who sold "high" and didn't get near enough in return after week 4? I was offered mjd str8 up and stood by Arian.

My 3 backs gore/foster/Bradshaw (flex). 2 top 7 backs and at least a top 15?

I just traded him for Miles Austin. Didn't want to, but had a dire need at WR. That's about as much value as I expected
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby shawngee03 » Wed Oct 06, 2010 8:47 am

i just offered randy moss and mccoy and got shot down pretty quickly. i was pretty sure that was going to work...but wow does he have about as much value as anybody right now
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby thejusman1 » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:11 pm

I don't see why you'd sell-high right now. Just ride him to the end.
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby LMack » Thu Oct 07, 2010 5:08 pm

thejusman1 wrote:I don't see why you'd sell-high right now. Just ride him to the end.


Agreed. Everyone is so skeptical of buy low, sell high when it comes to fantasy football. (moreso than in any other fantasy sport it seems)
Unless you need talent at another position, your best bet with Foster is riding the wave.
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Re: Arian Foster will be top 5

Postby joejlitz » Tue Oct 12, 2010 8:39 pm

Foster had first first non-superman week and Miles Austin was superb, so my trade worked for at least one week.

But I'm not naive enough to think that this will be the norm for Foster or that Austin won't have his down weeks.
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