Arian Foster will be top 5

[Azrael]

You're just stupid if you are trying to compare the guy to MJD.

[Azrael]

Who doesn't like reliving old threads where you look like a genius?

[Kareighuis]

I'd prefer you revive an old thread where both you and I were right...

Foster lovers- any of you concerned about Kubiak job security if they don't make the playoffs?

[Cuffs]

On this subject, I traded Arian Foster, Johnny Knox and the Seahawks D for Chris Johnson and Tony Gonzales two weeks ago (before the Houston/NYJets game). Foster's schedule was only getting tougher (NYJ, Tenn, Phi, Bal, Denver-the easy one), and CJ's end of the season schedule looks easy (houston twice, Indy twice, Jax & KC). The concensus among fellow league members was that this was a good deal for me.

As everyone can imagine, this has worked out horribly. Johnson has had games of 0.7 and 6.7 pts, while Foster has had 2 games of 21+ pts. I'm still in the playoffs and hoping Johnson can blow up against the Indy and Houston matchups to make this trade, at best, a wash. But right now it's been a bad deal.

Moral of the story: never listen to anyone, ever, about anything.

[Sex Panther]

I'd prefer you revive an old thread where both you and I were right...

Foster lovers- any of you concerned about Kubiak job security if they don't make the playoffs?

Depends on what kind of over haul they pull if they get rid of him (Kubiak), obviously Foster has excelled in the scheme Kubiak runs. I love me my Foster, I wished I owned him in every league I play in - I'm lucky enough to own him in 2 of 4. But, I won't lie, I love him as possibly me greatest 5th round pick of all tim, not sure how much I will love him next year with a 1st round price tag - regardless of who's calling the shots in Houston.

IMO it is NOT realistic to depend on Foster duplicating 2010 in 2011 - he is in the midst of an all time great fantasy season for a RB...

He's on pace to finsih the season w/ 328 carries, 67 catches (395 touches), 2278 YFS (1640 rushing, 638 rec), and 20 TD.

That projects to -

347.8 standard pts (not accounting for fumbles).
414.8 full PPR pts (again, not accounting for fumbles).

Chris Johnson 2009 -

348.9 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
398.9 full PPR

DeAngelo Williams 2008 -

285.6 standard (he didn't fumble - amazing stat)
307.6 full PPR

Ladanian Tomlinson 2007 -

302.9 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
362.9 full PPR

Ladanian Tomlinson 2006 -

418.3 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
474.3 full PPR

Shaun Alexander 2005 -

363.8 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
378.8 full PPR

Shaun Alexander 2004 -

306.6 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
329.6 full PPR

Priest Holmes 2003 -

373 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
447 full PPR

Ladanian Tomlinson 2003 -

339 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
439 full PPR (100 catches)

Priest Holmes 2002 -

372.7 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
442.7 full PPR

Marshall Faulk 2001 -

340.7 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
423.7 full PPR

Marshall Faulk 2000 -

374.9 standard (not accounting for fumbles)
455.9 full PPR

Since the 2000 season, Foster is on pace to finish w/ the 6th best standard scoring RB season in the last 11 seasons, 7th best PPR season scoring RB season.

That is INSANE, especially considering the fact he was an undrafted free agent coming out of college, and 2010 mat not have happened if Tate didn't get hurt.

Foster and Holmes were both undrafted free agents - hopefully Foster can have a run like Priest (hopefully longer, Priest didn't get going until well into his career when he landed in KC & benefitted from a HC who loved his RB's - Vermeil), everybody else on that list was a 1st round draft pick...

[Kareighuis]

Wow, Sex Panther. That helps put everything into perspective. Foster just went onto my "don't draft" list for next year.

It would also be interesting to see how each of the players listed did in the following season.

[LMack]

Have a lot of repeat number 1 FF backs. Faulk (00-01) Holmes (02-03) Alexander (04-05) LT (06-07)
I wonder if Foster finds his way into that group, but I'm tempted to say he doesn't.

[Sex Panther]

Wow, Sex Panther. That helps put everything into perspective. Foster just went onto my "don't draft" list for next year.

It would also be interesting to see how each of the players listed did in the following season.

There's typically a drop off - as fantasy footballer's, as much as we try to avoid it, all too often we chase past numbers...

IMO it IS realistic to project Foster's 2011 at about a 20% fall off from 2010... (that translates to 1300ish rushing yards, 500ish rec. yards, 50ish catches, 16ish TD) 280ish standard, 330ish full PPR regardless of a coaching change. Still RB1 numbers, but IMO NOT 1st overall pick numbers.

Chris Johnson was the consensus #1 overall pick this year - he was coming off a 2509 (2006 rushing, 503 rec.) YFS, 16 TD, 50 catch season (408 touces)...

This year he's had a good season, but it's not 2009, he projects to around 1600 (1400ish rushing, 200ish rec.) YFS, 11 TD, and 42 catches (around 320 total touches), a far cry form his monster 2009 season - I'm sure there are plenty of CJ4.24 owners out there who don't believe that they got what they paid for on draft day. Still a rock solid RB1, but not #1 overall pick numbers. If you look at last year's stats, Johnson had such an incredible tear from week 6 on...

WK 6 - 128 rush - 12.8/12.8
WK 8 - 228 rush, 2 TD, 2 catches, 11 yards - 35.9/37.9
WK 9 - 135 rush, 2 TD, 3 catches, 25 yards - 28.0/31.0
WK 10 - 132 rush, 2 TD, 9 catches, 100 yards - 35.2/44.2
WK 11 - 151 rush - 15.1/15.1
WK 12 - 154 rush, 1 TD, 3 catches, 32 yards - 24.6/27.6
WK 13 - 113 rush, 6 catches, 28 yards - 14.1/20.1
WK 14 - 117 rush, 2 TD, 3 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD - 36.6/39.6
WK 15 - 104 rush, 2 catches, 55 yards - 15.9/17.9
WK 16 - 142 rush, 1 TD, 3 catches, 37 yards - 23.9/26.9
WK 17 - 134 rush, 2 TD, 3 catches, 20 yards - 27.4/30.4

Those are absolutely insane sustained numbers over a 11 game stretch.

Chris Johnson's start to the 2009 is erriely similar to his entire 2010 season - flashes of absolute fantasy dominance, but no real consistency...

WK 1 - 57 rush, 1 catch, 11 yards - 6.8/7.8
WK 2 - 197 rush, 2 TD, 9 catches, 87 yards - 46.4/55.4
WK 3 - 97 rush, 1 catch, 8 yards - 10.5/11.5
WK 4 - 83 rush, 3 catches, 11 yards - 9.4/12.4
WK 5 - 34 rush, 2 catches, 9 yards - 4.3/6.3

Johnson basically turned matchup proof when Vince Young was named starting QB.

This year, Foster has been remarkably consistent - he's had 1 dud game through 12 games...

WK 1 - 231 rush, 3 TD, 1 catch, 7 yards - 41.8/42.8
WK 2 - 69 rush, 3 catches, 69 yards - 13.8/16.8
WK 3 - 106 rush, 4 catches, 20 yards - 12.6/16.6
WK 4 - 133 rush, 1 TD, 3 catches, 56 yards, 1 TD - 30.9/33.9
WK 5 - 25 rush, 2 catches, 2 yards - 2.7/4.7 (His 1 dud)
WK 6 - 71 rush, 2 TD, 6 catches, 26 yards - 21.7/27.7
WK 8 - 102 rush, 1 TD, 9 catches, 65 yards - 22.7/31.7
WK 9 - 127 rush, 2 TD, 4 caches, 70 yards - 31.7/35.7
WK 10 - 56 rush, 1 TD, 1 catch, 4 yards - 12.0/13.0
WK 11 - 84 rush, 2 TD, 6 catches, 59 yards - 26.3/32.3
WK 12 - 143 rush, 9 catches, 75 yards - 21.8/30.8
WK 13 - 83 rush, 1 TD, 2 catches, 26 yards, 1 TD - 22.9/24.9

It is amazing how consistently dominant he's been, he's averaging 103 rush, 1.3 TD, 4.2 catches, 40 yards per game for the season - 22.1/26.3

By comparison...

Emmit Smith, Marshall Faulk, Terrel Davis, Shaun Alexander, Priest Homes, and LT have to be considered among the best fantasy RB's of all time (or at lest went on stretches where they put out some of the best fantasy seasons)...

During their 'hay-days' & truly "amazing" seasons - here are some PPG averages - standard/PPR (rounded up for simplicites sake & not accounting for fumbles - I'm supposed to be working mind you)...

Arian Foster (through 13 weeks/12 games) -

2010 - 103 rush, 1.3 TD, 4.2 catches, 40 yards - 22.1/26.3

Emmit Smith -

1992 - 107 rush, 1.2 TD, 3.7 catches, 21 yards - 20.0/23.7 - Foster has it beat
1994 - 99 rush, 1.4 TD, 3.1 catches, 21 yards - 20.4/23.5 - Foster has it beat
1995 - 111 rush, 1.6 TD, 3.9 catches, 23 yards - 23/26.9 - Emmit tops Foster (barely)

Terrell Davis -

1997 - 117 rush, 1 TD, 2.8 catches, 19 yards - 19.6/22.4 - Foster has it beat
1998 - 126 rush, 1.4 TD, 1.6 catches, 14 yards - 22.4/24.0 - adavantage Davis standard (by .3), PPR Foster has it beat

Marsahll Faulk -

1999 - 86 rush, .75 TD, 5.4 catches, 66 yards - 19.7/25.1 - Foster has it beat
2000 - 97 rush, 1.9 TD, 5.8 catches, 59 yards - 27.0/32.8 - Marshall, Marshall, Marshall
2001 - 99 rush, 1.5 TD, 5.9 catches, 55 yards - 24.4/30.3 - Go on with your bad self Mr. Faulk

Priest Holmes -

2002 - 115 rush, 1.7 TD, 5 catches, 48 yards - 26.5/31.5 - Priest = Beast
2003 - 89 rush, 1.7 TD, 4.6 catches, 43 yards - 23.4/28.0 - 2 years running, shame he got hurt in 2004

Shaun Alexander -

2004 - 106 rush, 1.3 TD, 1.4 catches, 11 yards - 19.5/20.9 - Foster has it beat
2005 - 118 rush, 1.8 TD, .9 catches, 5 yards - 23.1/24.0 - adavantage Alexander standard, PPR Foster has it beat

LaDanian Tomlinson -

2002 - 105 rush, .9 TD, 4.9 catches, 31 yards - 19.0/23.9 - Foster has it beat
2003 - 103 rush, 1.1 TD, 6.3 catches, 45 yards - 21.4/27.7 - Standard, Foster has it beat, PPR LT - 100 catch season
2004 - 89 rush, 1.2 TD, 3.5 catches, 29 yards - 19.0/22.5 - Foster has it beat
2005 - 91 rush, 1.3 TD, 3.2 catches, 23 yards - 19.2/22.4 - Foster has it beat
2006 - 113 rush, 1.9 TD, 3.5 catches, 32 yards - 25.9/29.4 - The year's of LT being a beast hit it's peak in 2006
2007 - 92 rush, 1.1 TD, 3.8 catches, 30 yards - 18.8/22.6 - Foster has it beat

Emmit, Marshall, and Tomlinson are HoF'ers, and the only guys on this list who sustained uber-ness for any real amount of time, I didn't list a majority of Faulk's or Smith's careers - just their "banner" seasons, LT is a different story - his run this decade is the benchmark for sustained greatness - that said, if Foster mantains his current average, there is only 1 season in LT's illustrious career that has been "better" than Foster's magical 2010 thus far in both PPR & standard formats, & 1 other in which LT had a better PPR season...

Now, I'm not saying to avoid Arian on draft day 2011, but I'm not endorsing him as an all time great RB, 1st ballot HoF'er, no-brainer lock as the #1 overall selection, etc & so on. All I'm saying is buyer beware... And, I'll say it again, I REALLY LOVE MY FOSTER

[bostonsoxandy]

How long did that take you sex panther?!?!? That's pretty ridicolous stats....especially when by now your arguing with yourself..no one is oging to disagree foster is an abosolute beast this year

[Sex Panther]

How long did that take you sex panther?!?!? That's pretty ridicolous stats....especially when by now your arguing with yourself..no one is oging to disagree foster is an abosolute beast this year

Awhile, Saturday mornings blow at work.

Not arguing with myself, screw top 5, I'd be shocked if he's not the #1 RB in 2010.

I guess all I'm saying is that it's not a given, and I don't know if I'd be willing to bet, that Foster will be top 5 in 2011 (even more dicey if Kubiak & that scheme is elsewhere next season).

And, while having the #1 RB in fantasy on your roster is definately a real good thing, Foster's most valuable fantasy trait in 2010 may not be his actual stats, but the insanely cheap draft day price those stats were had for... something that will definately not duplicate itself in 2011 w/ Mr. Foster & his very likely top 2 or 3 pick status.

And again, I really love my Foster.