M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Moderator: Football Moderators

M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby umma10 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:24 am

What do you guys think about Matt Forte's performance yesterday (9-12-10). Will this happen often or should owners sell him high?

Matt Forte (RB, CHI) - Week 1
50 yrds rushing
151 yrds receiving
2 TD
2 FUM (Lost 1)

Against Detroit Lions
umma10
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1146
(Past Year: 44)
Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Folsom CA

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:39 am

umma10 wrote:What do you guys think about Matt Forte's performance yesterday (9-12-10). Will this happen often or should owners sell him high?

Matt Forte (RB, CHI) - Week 1
50 yrds rushing
151 yrds receiving
2 TD
2 FUM (Lost 1)

Against Detroit Lions


key words
Dan Lambskin
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 7054
Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: being a fan of the worst franchise in the NFL

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby B3N1ZJAM1N » Mon Sep 13, 2010 9:49 am

Sell him high now. No way he repeats that against someone who has a defense better than an actual wooden fence
B3N1ZJAM1N
Head Coach
Head Coach

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2036
Joined: 23 Aug 2010
Home Cafe: Football

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby shawngee03 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:09 am

problem is with all "sell highs"...how much do you expect to get for him. he was drafted in a mid round...so no you are not going to get 1st round value for him. i woulndt assume anybody would give you more than the value you drafted him at...meaning its more valuable to you to keep him.

im confident he will provide the value throughtout the year that i drafted him at. no i dont expect 30 points every week...but im cool w about 10 each week. i play PPR...so he'll stay on my team more than likely
shawngee03
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator


Posts: 714
Joined: 6 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby SetYourselfFree » Mon Sep 13, 2010 10:36 am

I watched the Bears a lot last year as a Forte owner and I was always frustrated with the Bears o-line. This year Forte actually looks slightly quicker but it didn't make much of a difference on his runs because the o-line is still terrible. He's still valuable in PPR leagues where I would hold him but I would deal him ASAP in non-PPR formats.
SetYourselfFree
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 93
Joined: 2 Sep 2010
Home Cafe: Football

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby default01 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 11:15 am

shawngee03 wrote:problem is with all "sell highs"...how much do you expect to get for him. he was drafted in a mid round...so no you are not going to get 1st round value for him. i woulndt assume anybody would give you more than the value you drafted him at...meaning its more valuable to you to keep him.

im confident he will provide the value throughtout the year that i drafted him at. no i dont expect 30 points every week...but im cool w about 10 each week. i play PPR...so he'll stay on my team more than likely


Forte probably had his best game of the season and he is a "sell high" but I agree with this. I don't expect to be able to get "sell high" value for him. I really think he was undervalued heading into the year. Last year's terrible season was over-exaggerated because of how high he was drafted. He was still a top-20 RB and I expect him to at least match that or end up better this year but he was being drafted even later. I don't think one great game, where he did most of his damage receiving, against the Lions is enough to bump his value to where he is a "sell high". If I could get someone like Thomas or McCoy, I would do it, but I think someone like Stewart or Addai would be about a break even at best. I think the most interesting target for a Forte owner is Ryan Grant if you feel like gambling that he won't miss too much time or end up in a RBBC with Brandon Jackson when he does return. What does everyone else think about targeting Grant? Who else would be a good target as a Forte owner?

I think Foster has the same problem, where he had his best game of the season and is a "sell high" but you still won't be able to get what he's worth.
default01
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

Cafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 772
(Past Year: 71)
Joined: 25 Oct 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby FatFoot » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:33 pm

This was probably his best game of the season, BUT

In PPR I think he's going to be a monster. He's obviously a pass catching RB. He's obviously got good hands. This is a Mike Martz offense. You have to expect a significant drop off from a 200 yard 2 TD game when it's a Bears RB. But I don't know that the drop off brings him below RB1 in PPR.

I know he had a garbage year last season. But in non PPR I can still see him being between #16-10. In PPR, I suspect he's a top 10 RB this season.

Conventional leagues: sell high if you think you can really get someone of exceptional value in the process. Like, if he's the tipping point in a package that lands you a better pure RB, on a multiple player per team trade.
PPR: I don't see how you trade a successful catching RB in a Martz offense after a performance like that. I think that's a decision that routinely haunts an owner.

I haven't played in a league where there's even a CONCEPT of "Sell High" in the last several years. No one makes crazy moves after ONE WEEK around these parts anymore. But I think that means the league is more competitive and interesting.
FatFoot
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerEagle Eye
Posts: 3259
Joined: 28 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: In the Belly of the Beast

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby FatFoot » Mon Sep 13, 2010 1:35 pm

default01 wrote:I think Foster has the same problem, where he had his best game of the season and is a "sell high" but you still won't be able to get what he's worth.


No, I think Foster will get you just about anything you ask for, right now... maybe short of Chris Johnson and ADP. I don't think he's a "sell high." I think he's got all the potential to be a "sell if you're out of your mind and don't like money."
FatFoot
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe RankerEagle Eye
Posts: 3259
Joined: 28 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: In the Belly of the Beast

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby CBMGreatOne » Mon Sep 13, 2010 4:56 pm

I think Forte is in for a very good season for where he was drafted and while I still slightly prefer Pierre Thomas, there is no way I'd trade him for a significantly injured Ryan Grant. Before the injury, I liked Grant slightly more, but there is way too much risk involved in trading for a player who could miss 4 weeks or more especially considering you don't know if he'll even return to 100%. For all we know Brandon Jackson will rush for 150 yards next week and McCarthy is talking 50/50 split by week 3.

The Lions took steps to address the defensive line in particular in the offseason and I'd expect their play against the run to be much improved from last year. Let's not forget that Forte is just one season removed from a better season than Ryan Grant had a year ago.
CBMGreatOne
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1845
(Past Year: 10)
Joined: 30 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: M. Forte - Sell High or Ride Him Out

Postby tah161 » Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:06 pm

I am going to hang onto him. He is my best RB option.

Yeah last year he had a down year compared to his rookie year but I read that he battled a sprained ankle among other injuries all year long. Anyone who watches or plays football knows how much a bum ankle can effect your speed and cuts.

Second, he was quoted saying he feels better and healthier than he did in his rookie year. WHich is always a good sign.

I will hang onto him because he is my best option, i am in a ppr league, and he is a great recieving RB, and we will get a lot of catches in this offense.
tah161
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 122
Joined: 27 Mar 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 11:34 hours
(and 35 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact