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The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby brikz » Sat Oct 02, 2010 9:28 pm

While I apreciate your passion and you present enough "stats" to support your argument, I think it's completely ridiculous to call guys who run for over 1,000 yards busts. In the past 2 years, only 15 RB's have reached that mark each season. While some of those guys may not have had high TD counts, it's not really possible to estimate how many TD's a guy is going to get from year to year. If I can guarantee 1,000 yards from my RB's I'll be pretty happy every year.

Also, I decided to do some research. I looked at every Yahoo league I've been in beginning in 2002. I examined the draft results for the champion in each league. Out of a total of 26 leagues, 22 champions picked a RB in the 1st round (85%). Of the remaining 4 teams, 2 took a RB in the 2nd round, bringing the grand total of champions who took a RB in the first or second round to 24 (92%). I think what that basically says is that without a stud RB, you're chances of winning a championship are pretty slim. I'll continue to take the right RB's early and enjoy my success.
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby u_fig_eater » Sat Oct 02, 2010 10:44 pm

Agree with brikz 100%...and to add to dgan's post and to reiterate mine...I have to really question if these people who didn't touch a RB until round 4, 5, or 6 (remember the "don't draft a RB until round 6" thread?) have a viable third running back. That means you guessed right on three sleepers...
Last edited by u_fig_eater on Sat Oct 02, 2010 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby brikz » Sat Oct 02, 2010 11:01 pm

^I highly doubt it. I have crazy depth at RB in two leagues (Peterson, Foster, Best, Moreno in one and Peterson, Charles, Best, McFadden in the other) and even I had to go to the waiver wire this week and roll out Law Firm due to injuries/byes. If you're drafting guys in the 6th or later, your cieling is already low. Throw in an injury and you're probably starting Danny Woodhead most weeks.
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby brikz » Sat Oct 02, 2010 11:36 pm

bostonsoxandy wrote:
Well using to answer your question about lower tier RB picks and their prodcution, great post btw, is answered in Pro Football Forecast (published in June remember)...they give 10 RB's who are available in rounds 6-12 and have the potential to be fantasy difference makers, so heres this years list with their current rank next to them:
Thomas Jones-22nd RB
Arian Foster-2nd RB
Steve Slaton-66nd RB
Darren Sproles-50th RB
Donald Brown-36th RB + injury
Ricky Williams-50th RB
Ahmad Bradshaw-13th RB
Cadillac Williams-30th RB
LaDanian Tomlinson-18th RB
Laurence Maroney-62nd RB
Chester Taylor-62nd RB
Michael Bush-injury
Montario Hardesty-out for year
Clinton Portis-22nd RB
Willis McGahee-56nd RB

Maybe not stellar numbers right now but eventually a few of these guys will break out
Right now in their list thye have pinpointed the 2nd, 13th, 18th, 22nd, back out of 14 nominated....
you would be happy/content with that type of production out of an RB you draft in the 6-12 round range-right?
so using that-to see how likely it is you hit money, you have to take out the 2 injured guys (Bush + Hardesty) to make it 12 total guys they nomianted
Four of those 12 guys are hits in Foster, Bradshaw, LT, and Portis. So your chances of grabbing one of those guys in the middle rounds? 1 in 3... Pretty good odds...especially if you use your 6,7,8,9,10,and 11 picks on RB's...If you spend those 5 mid-round spots on upside RB's you have a 1/3 chance each pick out of hitting one of those guys...so according to that, its almost a gaurntee you get one of those 4 guys...and there is a chance you could get two.

andy


Also, I don't know what leagues you're playing in where you can get Foster or Bradshaw in the 6th or later, but sign me up! I looked at my 5 leagues (a pretty good sample) and calculated the ADP for each of these guys. On average, Foster went in the 4th round (44.8 ADP) with his latest postion being 58th (5th round) and Bradshaw went in the 5th round (51.2 ADP) with his latest postion being 59th (5th round). So now you're down to 2 out of 12, or 17%. Not a very strong percentage. Then you have to take into account that Portis is now injured and in the dog house and will likely be losing carries, and possibly his position to Ryan Torain. Now you're down to 1 out of 12 (8%). Yikes. And that one guy you're hanging your hat on is Ladanian Tomlinson, who is 31, hasn't stayed healthy in years and is splitting carries with another back. Good luck with that. I think I'll stick with my Adrian Peterson.
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby swyck » Sun Oct 03, 2010 8:03 am

In order to correctly evaluate this, what is needed is a comparison of the top 12 RBs vs the top 12WRs and the top 12 QBs. You haven't made your point at all if the attrition rate in the other positions is just as high, and you can't say that RBs are busts so we should draft WRs or QBs if you haven't done the same analysis for them.

This doesn't mean you argument is incorrect, just incomplete.
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby bostonsoxandy » Sun Oct 03, 2010 9:52 am

swyck wrote:In order to correctly evaluate this, what is needed is a comparison of the top 12 RBs vs the top 12WRs and the top 12 QBs. You haven't made your point at all if the attrition rate in the other positions is just as high, and you can't say that RBs are busts so we should draft WRs or QBs if you haven't done the same analysis for them.

This doesn't mean you argument is incorrect, just incomplete.


I know, it takes some time to look this all up. If anyone knows a place where they have a good archive set with elaborate fantasy football articles (Top 200, Tiers, etc.) that would be much obliged.
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby chchelse » Sun Oct 03, 2010 9:57 am

Note: Read with sarcastic tone.

I don't know why you guys are bashing this guys methods. Look at the team I assembled using his methods and you'll have to agree that after the first eight picks of my draft, you would have loved to have my team. I drafted sixth and putting this method to work, of course I grabbed Andre Johnson. Unbelievably, Larry Fitzgerald fell to me in the second. Everybody in my league hates the Lions and I was able to grab Calvin Johnson in the third round!!!! This is one of those dumb RB heavy leagues and being from Minnesota, we hate the Packers, so, in the fourth round Greg Jennings was still there as was, so I grabbed him!!! That's 4 of the top 9 WR's (by ADP). Now I'm unstoppable, right? But it get better!!! Vernon Davis was still available in the 5th. The 4th rated TE in the league with huge upside in the 5th round! My pass catchers are unstoppable and I'm on my way to the trophy!!! I plan on drafting a RB in the 6th, but both A Foster (4th round) and Ahmad Bradshaw (5th round) are gone. But!!!!! Steve Smith (NYG) is still there and I can't grab him fast enough. Thats 5 count 'em 5 top 13 WR's on my squad. The other teams are going to be giving up their whole team to get a hold of my WR's. Now for the coup de grace, I was hoping and praying and he's still there!!!! Joe Flacco the #8 rated QB is mine in the 7th round. And, not only that, I was able to secure my top sleeper QB in the 8th, yes, that's right, Kevin Kolb in the 8th round. Now I turn to RB and am able to secure Brandon Jacobs, Jerome Harrison, Justin Forsett, Clinton Portis, Cadillac Williams and Ricky Willams in the next 6 rounds, Knowing that at least two of those guys will be solid RB's for me I'm set, with by far, the best team in the league, maybe in the world. You know you all want my team. I know your all dying to play in my league with all these fools, who let me have such a stellar team, but for me, this league is like going to the ATM and I'm not letting any of you guys that know the take WR's, not RB's method, in. The baby's getting new shoes this year!!!! ;-D ;-D
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby bostonsoxandy » Sun Oct 03, 2010 10:34 am

chchelse wrote:Note: Read with sarcastic tone.

I don't know why you guys are bashing this guys methods. Look at the team I assembled using his methods and you'll have to agree that after the first eight picks of my draft, you would have loved to have my team. I drafted sixth and putting this method to work, of course I grabbed Andre Johnson. Unbelievably, Larry Fitzgerald fell to me in the second. Everybody in my league hates the Lions and I was able to grab Calvin Johnson in the third round!!!! This is one of those dumb RB heavy leagues and being from Minnesota, we hate the Packers, so, in the fourth round Greg Jennings was still there as was, so I grabbed him!!! That's 4 of the top 9 WR's (by ADP). Now I'm unstoppable, right? But it get better!!! Vernon Davis was still available in the 5th. The 4th rated TE in the league with huge upside in the 5th round! My pass catchers are unstoppable and I'm on my way to the trophy!!! I plan on drafting a RB in the 6th, but both A Foster (4th round) and Ahmad Bradshaw (5th round) are gone. But!!!!! Steve Smith (NYG) is still there and I can't grab him fast enough. Thats 4 count 'em 4 top 13 WR's on my squad. The other teams are going to be giving up their whole team to get a hold of my WR's. Now for the coup de grace, I was hoping and praying and he's still there!!!! Joe Flacco the #8 rated QB is mine in the 7th round. And, not only that, I was able to secure my top sleeper QB in the 8th, yes, that's right, Kevin Kolb in the 8th round. Now I turn to RB and am able to secure Brandon Jacobs, Jerome Harrison, Justin Forsett, Clinton Portis, Cadillac Williams and Ricky Willams in the next 6 rounds, Knowing that at least two of those guys will be solid RB's for me I'm set, with by far, the best team in the league, maybe in the world. You know you all want my team. I know your all dying to play in my league with all these fools, who let me have such a stellar team, but for me, this league is like going to the ATM and I'm not letting any of you guys that know the take WR's, not RB's method, in. The baby's getting new shoes this year!!!! ;-D ;-D


Did you even read my last post implementing the strategy...I used strict ADP when showing the strategy in hypothetical work....not this b.s.......I'm just saying for people to consider the new approach of not going RB heavy anymore because a lot of the RBs taken in the first round fail-its easy enough to say...alright you go take your Justin Forsett I'll win the league with my Chris Johnson..but if you took Shonn Greene with your late first rounder are you as confident anymore...All i'm saying is that it is worth considering waiting on RB's since so many RB's pop up in the waiver wire that are good-look at just THREE WEEKS in and we have already seen Peyton Hillis, Jason Snelling, Brandon Jackson, McFadden, Tolbert, Fred Taylor, BJGE etc. and we are only 3 weeks in and I just listed 7 RB's that all are worth starting that you can get off the waiver wire...can you name 7 wr's that do that? So far in the WR dept. uhhh, Mark Clayton....Roy Williams (huh?)....Collie-but he's owned in every league..to begin with...Brandon Lloyd...maybe...
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby chchelse » Sun Oct 03, 2010 10:53 am

You're missing the point. The point is, I have chosen 5 top 13 wr's for this team, and my record would be 0-3. These are all top 3 round picks and are all disappointments to say the least. You make it sound like if you grab WR's while everyone else is grabbing RB's that you're going to end up with an excellent set of WR's, but the fact is that WR's are lot more inconsistant on a week to week basis and are equally and probably more likely to be busts than the RB's. This doesn't even take into account that WR's are dependent on their QB's. Warner gone, how's Fitz looking now? Steve Smith is virtually unstartable in Carolina with Clausen at QB. What happens to Moss and Welker if Brady goes down like he did two years ago? Now you're worryin about the play and injuies of two players not one.

I think that what bothers me the most about the WR method people is that they never take into account that the WR's they choose could be busts, just like the RB's. That's simply what I was trying to show.


p.s. I took Shonn Greene in the 3rd round and Marques Colston in the 4th round and they are both killing me....
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Re: The Argument Against RB 1st Rd. UPDATE THREAD

Postby bostonsoxandy » Sun Oct 03, 2010 1:31 pm

chchelse wrote:You're missing the point. The point is, I have chosen 5 top 13 wr's for this team, and my record would be 0-3. These are all top 3 round picks and are all disappointments to say the least. You make it sound like if you grab WR's while everyone else is grabbing RB's that you're going to end up with an excellent set of WR's, but the fact is that WR's are lot more inconsistant on a week to week basis and are equally and probably more likely to be busts than the RB's. This doesn't even take into account that WR's are dependent on their QB's. Warner gone, how's Fitz looking now? Steve Smith is virtually unstartable in Carolina with Clausen at QB. What happens to Moss and Welker if Brady goes down like he did two years ago? Now you're worryin about the play and injuies of two players not one.

I think that what bothers me the most about the WR method people is that they never take into account that the WR's they choose could be busts, just like the RB's. That's simply what I was trying to show.


p.s. I took Shonn Greene in the 3rd round and Marques Colston in the 4th round and they are both killing me....


Ok, you just came off as an ignorant s#*@ in your post thats all...
and here's the projections for WR's over 2007, 2007, 2008, and 2009 and how they fared:
7/12 theory to WR’s
2007
Steve Smith-16th
Marvin Harrison-98th
Chad Johnson-6th
Terrell Owens-2nd
Torry Holt-13th
Reggie Wayne-4th
Larry Fitzgerald-5th
Marques Colston-8th
Javon Walker-103rd
Roy Williams-33rd
Lee Evans-32nd
TJ Houshmanzadeh-7th
Overall: 4 busts/12 wideouts
2009
Calvin Johnson-23rd
Randy Moss-2nd
Larry Fitzgerald-5th
Andre Johnson-1st
Roddy White-7th
Anquan Boldin-20th
Steve Smith-18th
Greg Jennings-21st
Reggie Wayne-6th
Marques Colston-13th
Wes Welker-12th
Brandon Marshall-9th
Overall: 3/12
2008
Randy Moss-10th
Terrell Owens-9th
Reggie Wayne-14th
Braylon Edwards-36th
Marques Colston-35th
TJ Houshmanzadeh-31st
Brandon Marshall-11th
Torry Holt-40th
Andre Johnson-2nd
Larry Fitzgerald-1st
Santonio Holmes-32nd
Chad Johnson-49th
Overall: 6/12
2006
Steve Smith-8th
Chad Johnson-4th
Tory Holt-6th
Larry Fitzgerald-24th
Marvin Harrison-1st
Terrell Owens-2nd
Randy Moss-58th
Anquan Boldin-17th
Plaxico Burress-12th
Santana Moss-27th
Donald Driver-5th
Hines Ward-21st
Overall: 4/12

As you see the average bust rate was 4, 4, 3, and 6 over the last 4 years...thats an average of 4.25 bust wide receivers in the top 12 compared to the average of 7 bust running backs in the top 12...that shows that The top 12 Wr have half as many bust in the top 12 compared to RB's..basically to summarize:
taking a top 12 rb = 7/12 chance of bust = 58% = chances are your picks a bust
taking a top 12 wr = 4.25/12 chance of bust = 35% = chances are your picks not a bust

finally this years top 12 wr:
Andre Johnson-#16
Reggie Wayne-#8
Randy Moss-#16
Larry Fitzgerald-#25
Miles Austin-#8
Brandon Marshall-#11
Calvin Johnson-#35
Roddy White-#8
Greg Jennings-#28
DeSean Jackson-#3
Marques Colston-#53
Steve Smith (CAR)-#24
Possible Busts so far: 5 out of 12 which is right around the average of 4.25/12 a little higher...and eventually you gotta think a couple of the bolded players will step up their game-but thats the point of this thread. to find those trendy numbers and where you get the most consitency in that first 2 rounds of picks..
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