Trying to imitate PLindsey

[Instinctive]

Enough data after 3 weeks?

[biju]

Enough data after 3 weeks?

Normally I would wait until after week 5, but I *can* post the data as it is now. What you'll see are some trends that haven't evened themselves out yet (like SF's special teams getting .67 TD returns a week because of their two against Seattle). I'll see if I can whip them up quickly...

[biju]

Ask, and ye shall receive!

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 4, 2011.

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Washington Redskins    85.71
Atlanta Falcons        79.12
San Francisco 49ers    72.53
New Orleans Saints     61.54
Houston Texans         59.34
Minnesota Vikings      58.24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   57.14
Baltimore Ravens       56.04
Green Bay Packers      54.95
New York Giants        54.95
Chicago Bears          53.85
Arizona Cardinals      53.85
Carolina Panthers      52.75
Philadelphia Eagles    50.55
Detroit Lions          48.35
Dallas Cowboys         48.35
Seattle Seahawks       47.25
Buffalo Bills          45.05
San Diego Chargers     43.96
Miami Dolphins         40.66
Indianapolis Colts     40.66
Tennessee Titans       38.46
Cleveland Browns       36.26
New England Patriots   35.16
New York Jets          34.07
Pittsburgh Steelers    32.97
Denver Broncos         28.57
St. Louis Rams         28.57
Oakland Raiders        27.47
Cincinnati Bengals     23.08
Jacksonville Jaguars   19.78
Kansas City Chiefs     19.78


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I'd like to briefly point out that these numbers are based on previous weeks and does not take into account injuries or personnel swaps. These are extremely preliminary results and normally we would wait for week 5 to have completed before I start pushing these out. That said, these do seem to show some early trends.

[dream_017]

The more the better I say

Great work again Biju!!!

We also have prince that creates some Defensive formulas.

[Dawinner127]

The Rams have given up a defensive or special team touchdown in the previous 3 weeks. I really might roll the Redskins this week over the San Diego Superchargers.

[robotninja]

I am rollin with the Skins over the Chargers this week. San Diego has been dissapointing so far but I am going to hang on for another week or 2 before I start going WW every week.

[HotHandz305]

I'm surprised theres not alto of talk about Atlanta. I'm still debating wether to pick them up over NYG. All stats keep saying Atlanta should be better this week than NYG but I have this feeling! haha

If Atlanta is still around and I find out Wells will play maybe I'll drop NYG for Atl

[biju]

Here's my numbers for the upcoming week. I hope prince doesn't mind a "second opinion" although we are oddly close on most of our predictions. It's worth mentioning that this is one of the lowest "high scores" I've seen since I started doing this so the expectation is that--barring the usual crazy team that scores a defensive TD--the top 12 will score close to the same. It might be worth while to look at the week 6 matchups when choosing to try to get a leg up on others in your league that stream defenses.

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 5, 2011.

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New York Giants        67.4
Tennessee Titans       64.4
Detroit Lions          64.4
New England Patriots   63.7
Green Bay Packers      62.9
Cincinnati Bengals     62.2
Buffalo Bills          62.2
New Orleans Saints     57.7
Chicago Bears          56.2
San Francisco 49ers    56.2
Indianapolis Colts     53.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   51.1
New York Jets          48.8
Houston Texans         46.6
Minnesota Vikings      46.6
Kansas City Chiefs     45.9
Arizona Cardinals      45.1
San Diego Chargers     44.4
Denver Broncos         42.9
Carolina Panthers      41.4
Jacksonville Jaguars   41.4
Philadelphia Eagles    37.7
Atlanta Falcons        36.2
Seattle Seahawks       34.8
Oakland Raiders        32.5
Pittsburgh Steelers    31.1


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I'd like to briefly point out that these numbers are based on previous weeks and does not take into account injuries or personnel swaps. These are still considered preliminary numbers as the scores get more accurate as the year goes on.

Enjoy.

[Instinctive]

Looks good again, thanks a ton man. I have been going Tennessee in my leagues

[RedHopeful]

Looks good again, thanks a ton man. I have been going Tennessee in my leagues

Can't help but feel the Steelers are going to really bring it so I'm looking at Cincinnati for this week's stream team.