Trying to imitate PLindsey - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Trying to imitate PLindsey

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Instinctive » Mon Sep 26, 2011 10:01 pm

Enough data after 3 weeks?
Fourth and Inches (Dynasty)
Zealots: 4, 39, 56
Cafe Very Special Forces (Dynasty)
General Manager Wannabees
Frozen Tundra (Dynasty)
Instinctive
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 1243
Joined: 12 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:24 am

Instinctive wrote:Enough data after 3 weeks?


Normally I would wait until after week 5, but I *can* post the data as it is now. What you'll see are some trends that haven't evened themselves out yet (like SF's special teams getting .67 TD returns a week because of their two against Seattle). I'll see if I can whip them up quickly...
Image
biju
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5941
Joined: 6 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Seattle - Ballard

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:43 am

Ask, and ye shall receive!

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 4, 2011.

Code: Select all
Washington Redskins    85.71
Atlanta Falcons        79.12
San Francisco 49ers    72.53
New Orleans Saints     61.54
Houston Texans         59.34
Minnesota Vikings      58.24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   57.14
Baltimore Ravens       56.04
Green Bay Packers      54.95
New York Giants        54.95
Chicago Bears          53.85
Arizona Cardinals      53.85
Carolina Panthers      52.75
Philadelphia Eagles    50.55
Detroit Lions          48.35
Dallas Cowboys         48.35
Seattle Seahawks       47.25
Buffalo Bills          45.05
San Diego Chargers     43.96
Miami Dolphins         40.66
Indianapolis Colts     40.66
Tennessee Titans       38.46
Cleveland Browns       36.26
New England Patriots   35.16
New York Jets          34.07
Pittsburgh Steelers    32.97
Denver Broncos         28.57
St. Louis Rams         28.57
Oakland Raiders        27.47
Cincinnati Bengals     23.08
Jacksonville Jaguars   19.78
Kansas City Chiefs     19.78


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I'd like to briefly point out that these numbers are based on previous weeks and does not take into account injuries or personnel swaps. These are extremely preliminary results and normally we would wait for week 5 to have completed before I start pushing these out. That said, these do seem to show some early trends.
Last edited by biju on Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
Image
biju
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5941
Joined: 6 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Seattle - Ballard

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby dream_017 » Tue Sep 27, 2011 10:48 am

The more the better I say ;-D

Great work again Biju!!!

We also have prince that creates some Defensive formulas.
dream_017
Cafe Google
Cafe Google

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 15305
(Past Year: 59)
Joined: 3 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Ford Field: Section - 132; Row - 19; Seat - 11

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Dawinner127 » Tue Sep 27, 2011 6:12 pm

The Rams have given up a defensive or special team touchdown in the previous 3 weeks. I really might roll the Redskins this week over the San Diego Superchargers.
A win next week and all is forgotten.
Dawinner127
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 6206
(Past Year: 70)
Joined: 15 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: New Jersey

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby robotninja » Thu Sep 29, 2011 2:00 am

I am rollin with the Skins over the Chargers this week. San Diego has been dissapointing so far but I am going to hang on for another week or 2 before I start going WW every week.
10 Team Std Scoring No PPR
QB Stafford
RB Spiller
RB Morris
WR Nelson
WR Reggie Wayne
WR/TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Ridley
K and Def by committee
Min and Hartley

Bench
A Brown (pit)
Bernard Pierce
Roy Helu
Bryce Brown
Mark Ingram
Marlon Brown
robotninja
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 720
(Past Year: 29)
Joined: 7 Sep 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby HotHandz305 » Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:29 am

I'm surprised theres not alto of talk about Atlanta. I'm still debating wether to pick them up over NYG. All stats keep saying Atlanta should be better this week than NYG but I have this feeling! haha

If Atlanta is still around and I find out Wells will play maybe I'll drop NYG for Atl
Week 13 Roster
QB Tony Romo
WR1 Greg Jennings
WR2 Vincent Jax
RB1 Arian Foster
RB2 LeSean McCoy
TE Vernon Davis
Flex (W/R/T) Willis McGahee
K Billy Cundiff
DST GB
IDP Patrick Willis
BEN Roy Helu
BEN Fred Davis
BEN Stevie Johnson
BEN Pitt D/ST
HotHandz305
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 169
Joined: 8 Sep 2010
Home Cafe: Football
Location: FL

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:12 am

Here's my numbers for the upcoming week. I hope prince doesn't mind a "second opinion" although we are oddly close on most of our predictions. It's worth mentioning that this is one of the lowest "high scores" I've seen since I started doing this so the expectation is that--barring the usual crazy team that scores a defensive TD--the top 12 will score close to the same. It might be worth while to look at the week 6 matchups when choosing to try to get a leg up on others in your league that stream defenses.

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 5, 2011.

Code: Select all
New York Giants        67.4
Tennessee Titans       64.4
Detroit Lions          64.4
New England Patriots   63.7
Green Bay Packers      62.9
Cincinnati Bengals     62.2
Buffalo Bills          62.2
New Orleans Saints     57.7
Chicago Bears          56.2
San Francisco 49ers    56.2
Indianapolis Colts     53.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   51.1
New York Jets          48.8
Houston Texans         46.6
Minnesota Vikings      46.6
Kansas City Chiefs     45.9
Arizona Cardinals      45.1
San Diego Chargers     44.4
Denver Broncos         42.9
Carolina Panthers      41.4
Jacksonville Jaguars   41.4
Philadelphia Eagles    37.7
Atlanta Falcons        36.2
Seattle Seahawks       34.8
Oakland Raiders        32.5
Pittsburgh Steelers    31.1


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I'd like to briefly point out that these numbers are based on previous weeks and does not take into account injuries or personnel swaps. These are still considered preliminary numbers as the scores get more accurate as the year goes on.

Enjoy.
Image
biju
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSweet 16 Survivor
Posts: 5941
Joined: 6 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Seattle - Ballard

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Instinctive » Fri Oct 07, 2011 12:26 am

Looks good again, thanks a ton man. I have been going Tennessee in my leagues
Fourth and Inches (Dynasty)
Zealots: 4, 39, 56
Cafe Very Special Forces (Dynasty)
General Manager Wannabees
Frozen Tundra (Dynasty)
Instinctive
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 1243
Joined: 12 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby RedHopeful » Fri Oct 07, 2011 10:56 am

Instinctive wrote:Looks good again, thanks a ton man. I have been going Tennessee in my leagues

Can't help but feel the Steelers are going to really bring it so I'm looking at Cincinnati for this week's stream team.
2008 Killer Crossover League Champion
2009 Killer Crossover League Champion
RedHopeful
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

Basketball ModPick 3 Weekly WinnerCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 444
Joined: 11 Jul 2007
Home Cafe: Basketball

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 13:00 hours
(and 39 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact