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Trying to imitate PLindsey

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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby dream_017 » Fri Oct 07, 2011 11:01 am

RedHopeful wrote:
Instinctive wrote:Looks good again, thanks a ton man. I have been going Tennessee in my leagues

Can't help but feel the Steelers are going to really bring it so I'm looking at Cincinnati for this week's stream team.

Not so much as I think the Steelers are going to bring it against the Titans, but I have been going with Cincy also ;-D
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby shawngee03 » Mon Oct 10, 2011 9:29 am

looks like whoever plays Philly each week should be a good play
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Tue Oct 11, 2011 10:57 am

The Holy Grail of streaming defenses is here: Week 6. This is when, historically, the numbers come out to be considerably more accurate. Last week was a bit of a mess in terms of accuracy although for those of you who picked up the Bengals (myself included) we were nicely rewarded with a garbage time defensive TD. Although they sit atop the numbers this week I'm seriously considering finding a different defense. The Bengals made Blaine Gabbert look like a reasonable QB and Painter has more receiving weapons than Jacksonville does.

Of course, the home field advantage might play here and in my 14 team league the highest unowned DST is Washington which, although enticing against the Eagles, doesn't look like a replacement level team. I think I'm sticking with the Bengals for one more week...

One more thing I'd like to point out (even though it's listed at the bottom of this post too) is that there were a number of injuries last Sunday and the formula doesn't account for these. It might be worth listing these out so people aren't looking solely at the numbers. Houston comes to mind here...

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 6, 2011.

Code: Select all
Cincinnati Bengals     73.9
Buffalo Bills          71.4
New York Jets          70.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   69.9
Green Bay Packers      68.3
San Francisco 49ers    65.5
Baltimore Ravens       61.8
Houston Texans         61.0
Washington Redskins    58.6
Minnesota Vikings      57.8
New Orleans Saints     52.6
Miami Dolphins         52.6
Detroit Lions          51.3
Oakland Raiders        51.3
Carolina Panthers      50.0
Philadelphia Eagles    48.1
Jacksonville Jaguars   48.1
New England Patriots   47.3
Atlanta Falcons        45.7
New York Giants        45.7
Indianapolis Colts     45.5
Dallas Cowboys         44.7
Cleveland Browns       41.1
Chicago Bears          40.0
Pittsburgh Steelers    34.4
St. Louis Rams         28.4


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I'd like to briefly point out that these numbers are based on previous weeks and does not take into account injuries or personnel swaps. Accuracy improves by the week so these numbers should still be considered "best guesses". The first good week for the formula has historically been after week 5 and then it takes a big jump again around week 9 (although this might be because of bye weeks, so this could change this year).

Enjoy.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby daullaz » Sat Oct 15, 2011 1:02 am

Thanks. ;-D

I'm waffling between San Francisco and Cincinnati. First have to see if Cincy's D clears waivers before I make a potential move, but I think I'll be fine sticking with the 49ers, even against Detroit.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby waterproof » Tue Oct 18, 2011 2:16 pm

Great Thread! I look for updates weekly ;-D

That said... will there be an updated today?
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Tue Oct 18, 2011 10:50 pm

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 7, 2011.

Code: Select all
Baltimore Ravens       92.1
Dallas Cowboys         78.5
New York Jets          71.5
Cleveland Browns       65.5
Washington Redskins    64.8
Denver Broncos         64.3
Green Bay Packers      61.8
Chicago Bears          60.8
Detroit Lions          58.8
Seattle Seahawks       57.1
Pittsburgh Steelers    55.5
Tennessee Titans       54.9
Arizona Cardinals      53.4
St. Louis Rams         53
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   52.9
San Diego Chargers     51.7
Oakland Raiders        51.6
Atlanta Falcons        51.4
New Orleans Saints     50.9
Jacksonville Jaguars   50.1
Houston Texans         47.9
Carolina Panthers      46.9
Minnesota Vikings      46.9
Miami Dolphins         43.5
Indianapolis Colts     42.5
Kansas City Chiefs     40.6


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

Enjoy.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby waterproof » Wed Oct 19, 2011 8:38 am

I'm going with the Browns. Thanks ;-D
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Wed Oct 19, 2011 9:24 am

waterproof wrote:I'm going with the Browns. Thanks ;-D


The Browns are a good option for sure. Seattle doesn't tend to play well away and there is a strong likelihood that Charlie Whitehurst is going to start his first game. This could mean a number of things for the Browns' D, primarily that Whitehurst is more aggressive and picks might begin to happen. Seattle has one of the highest rates of sacks allowed in the league as well, although I would contend that Whitehurst is actually a better scrambler than Jackson (though most talking heads believe the exact opposite) so that might reduce chances.

I'm also (in my 14 team league) considering the Broncos. It's mostly because they have a score that is replacement level for the Browns and the Seahawks have been Jekyll/Hyde this year and could surprise on the road. Ultimately though I'll probably go Browns because I prefer to play the matchups (unless too tasty) where I'm picking the home team and the Moore to Marshall combination pretty much beat Revis--no idea what they'll do to Denver's 22nd ranked pass defense, even though they are equally bad (23rd) in rush defense.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Payne Dailey » Thu Oct 20, 2011 3:31 pm

I'm going with the Browns also, great work Biju thanks.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Instinctive » Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:43 pm

This is easily the #1 draw the Cafe has for me. ;-D
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