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Trying to imitate PLindsey

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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sat Oct 22, 2011 11:50 am

I know this is not the place to ask questions. MOST weeks I just roll with Chicago and hope for the best. Then I started to really get into all this matchup thing. I have done it in the past but not too often. Last week I had Chicago DST but I picked up Washington to play against the Eagles. Thinking it was a great matchup..... I ended up losing my game as a result of this decision.

Would you guys pick up and start the Browns DST or would you just stick with Chicago for the hopes that Hester does his thing.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Team Gooch » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:27 pm

Thanks for all the hard work biju.
Im trying to get a jump on week 8.

the best available in my league

Tenn vs Indy
Cinn @ Sea
SD @ KC
Hou vs Jax
Buf vs Wash
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Instinctive » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:33 pm

Cleveland looked good and scored well for me! - I'll be guessing Houston and/or Buffalo for week 8, but I cant wait to see formula results again. Great work biju!
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby m16a » Mon Oct 24, 2011 2:47 pm

Instinctive wrote:Cleveland looked good and scored well for me! - I'll be guessing Houston and/or Buffalo for week 8, but I cant wait to see formula results again. Great work biju!


Cleveland was money for me. Won a few games in IBL because of it. Keep up the good work. I'm looking forward to seeing the next result. ;-D
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby spodog » Wed Oct 26, 2011 9:08 am

I'll predict NYG, CIN and BUF all end up in biju's Top 5 when his machine finally spits out some week 8 stuff.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby waterproof » Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:00 pm

I agree. I picked up the Giants off waivers in 1 league.

Would it be possible to get these results for the next 2 weeks everyweek? That way there will be less of a guessing game on Tuesday which defenses will rank near the top.

As always, thanks for the info biju ;-D
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Thu Oct 27, 2011 1:08 am

Apologies for the delay folks, work was...very busy this week. Looks like most of you already have a good read on the situation now... ;-D

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 8, 2011.

Code: Select all
Houston Texans         85.5
Baltimore Ravens       81.2
New York Giants        79.0
New Orleans Saints     77.5
San Francisco 49ers    75.3
Cincinnati Bengals     71.0
Kansas City Chiefs     66.7
Buffalo Bills          65.1
Detroit Lions          63.8
Philadelphia Eagles    62.9
Dallas Cowboys         60.2
Tennessee Titans       59.2
Minnesota Vikings      58.8
Arizona Cardinals      55.9
New England Patriots   51.8
Washington Redskins    49.5
Seattle Seahawks       49.0
Miami Dolphins         48.4
Denver Broncos         47.8
San Diego Chargers     47.3
Jacksonville Jaguars   45.5
Carolina Panthers      45.5
Pittsburgh Steelers    45.3
Cleveland Browns       44.7
Indianapolis Colts     44.0
St. Louis Rams         30.4


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

Enjoy.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Thu Oct 27, 2011 10:06 am

This is a quick "warning shot" to all of the folks who follow this thread: I'm going to be in Australia during the month of November and will not be able to update the rankings ahead of that time. I'll be available for next week and my plan then is to create the next 5 weeks of rankings from the post week 8 data.

Is that going to be accurate during that time? Not as accurate as if they were done weekly, but better than you would expect. I would continue to keep in mind that this doesn't take into account injury and the longer things run the less the formula takes into account the first few weeks as well as "anomalies" within the season.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Dawinner127 » Thu Oct 27, 2011 1:00 pm

biju wrote:This is a quick "warning shot" to all of the folks who follow this thread: I'm going to be in Australia during the month of November and will not be able to update the rankings ahead of that time. I'll be available for next week and my plan then is to create the next 5 weeks of rankings from the post week 8 data.

Is that going to be accurate during that time? Not as accurate as if they were done weekly, but better than you would expect. I would continue to keep in mind that this doesn't take into account injury and the longer things run the less the formula takes into account the first few weeks as well as "anomalies" within the season.

Great work biju! Thanks for the help ;-D Have fun down-under!
A win next week and all is forgotten.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Tue Nov 01, 2011 8:30 am

Please note: This is the week I'm going to do all of November as I'll be out of the country and have zero access to my spreadsheet.

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 9, 2011.

Code: Select all
San Francisco 49ers    79.3
Arizona Cardinals      78.4
Kansas City Chiefs     76.6
Baltimore Ravens       75.7
Buffalo Bills          75.2
Houston Texans         74.6
Dallas Cowboys         72.5
Green Bay Packers      72.5
Chicago Bears          71.6
Oakland Raiders        69.4
Cincinnati Bengals     63.5
Atlanta Falcons        63.2
Seattle Seahawks       60.8
Pittsburgh Steelers    60.5
New York Giants        60.4
New Orleans Saints     58.8
Denver Broncos         57.7
Philadelphia Eagles    57.7
New York Jets          57.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers   56.8
Washington Redskins    55.9
New England Patriots   55.4
St. Louis Rams         55.4
Tennessee Titans       52.3
Miami Dolphins         49.6
San Diego Chargers     47.3
Cleveland Browns       46.8
Indianapolis Colts     46.1


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

Enjoy.
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