In reviewing the projections and actual final stats of the weekly games I wanted to take a closer look to see what could be done to improve the numbers. Here are my findings, with the number in parentheses being the amount I missed by. The end result had my first set of numbers roughly hit on 10 of 28 teams and be "not far off" on another 8, meaning I missed badly on 11. Here are the worst three of the ones I missed:
TBB (-22): The TB passing defense was ranked #9 heading into week 6 and the Saints passing offense was ranked #6. The rush offense and defense matched up equally as well as the Saints had been running terrible (ranked #31) and the Bucs had been defending terrible (ranked #30). The extra reps Chris Ivory got seemed to be the key in TBB's low score this week, which opened up the passing game.
GBP (-19): On paper this look like another matchup where the Miami Dolphins struggle to score points against marginal defenses. This is actually a prediction I'd still stand by and I believe the Packers had an off week defensively. My guess is that the Packers injuries (Clay Matthews, Ryan Pickett) proved to be bigger pieces of the puzzle than expected.
SF (+19): Stats-wise, this game had the appearance of two mediocre teams (SF, OAK) not being able to move the ball, yet also not being necessarily able to stop anyone. It appears Jason Campbell is about done, as he proved even more useless. The Raiders are a prime team to place your DST hopes against while he's in the game.
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I also made a slight adjustment to how I'm attributing points to the scoring as a believe I had too high a multiplier against defenses, thus lessening the effect sacks, INTs, fumbles and defensive scoring had. The datamined results from week 6 show a better overall result with my "hitting" on more teams and "missing" on fewer. We're going to try this for the week to see if there is a big difference.
What I'm struggling with now is figuring out where to put the new numbers. Create a new post or add it to this thread? Put a new post in the "Draft, Trade, Keeper & Waiver Questions" or in this forum?
Yahoo has NYG Def ranked last of defenses on my waiver wire for this week but I picked them up to start against the Cowboys anyway. Why would they get ranked so low? Romo throws picks and the Giants DL is so much better than the Cowboys OL it's not even close.
biju wrote:What I'm struggling with now is figuring out where to put the new numbers. Create a new post or add it to this thread? Put a new post in the "Draft, Trade, Keeper & Waiver Questions" or in this forum?
Put it here for now. I can split it into a new topic and post it to post the DTKW and S&S forums to get more views. It will also have a link on our Facebook site
WaCougMBS wrote:Question: where will the weekly installments of rankings actually be posted? I found a link to last week's, but can't actually track down the post now
Week 6 are located here in this post - I also put a link in the S&S Weekly Waiver Wire Defense thread to get more looks and input for this. See my other post for where the actual rankings will be (everywhere);-D
Seattle Seahawks 87.99 Pittsburgh Steelers 84.30 New England Patriots 84.21 Green Bay Packers 74.49 Atlanta Falcons 71.63 Arizona Cardinals 68.02 San Francisco 49ers 61.18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 57.83 Carolina Panthers 57.48 Tennessee Titans 56.26 New Orleans Saints 56.02 Washington Redskins 52.93 Kansas City Chiefs 52.70 New York Giants 51.47 Chicago Bears 51.41 St. Louis Rams 46.28 Dallas Cowboys 44.96 Philadelphia Eagles 44.29 San Diego Chargers 43.21 Minnesota Vikings 42.26 Cleveland Browns 39.89 Denver Broncos 39.24 Miami Dolphins 37.75 Baltimore Ravens 34.86 Cincinnatti Bengals 33.77 Oakland Raiders 26.15 Buffalo Bills 13.08 Jacksonville Jaguars 9.77
(1) - Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.
More information coming, I just wanted to get the raw numbers out there. There's a lot of low rent defenses popping up because bad teams are playing bad teams this week.
Edit: Had "fake" matchups listed with BYE week teams. This keeps the spreadsheet from falling apart and I just forgot to take those teams out.
Last edited by biju on Thu Oct 21, 2010 9:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I'm loving the Hawks this week. 2nd-ranked run defense? Opposing rookie quarterback making his first career road start? Opposing receivers coming back from major injuries? Could be a bonanza for Seattle.
In looking over the projections I want to officially say, this is more difficult than I imagined. There are a lot of variables I didn't account for previously and many I still need to figure a way to add.
This week is an interesting one: time of possession. As I was watching last week's Seahawks game on my Tivo I was excited that my Hawks finally looked like they were sustaining drives. I attributed most of this to either the actual threat of Marshawn Lynch, or the Bears *perceived* threat of the run as the safeties seemed to bite quite a bit on play-action pass (or at least more than the Seahawks were afforded in their first four games). This opened up the passing game some and allowed drives to last longer and allow the defense more time to rest up.
While I was watching this I wondered what the average time of possession (TOP) was per Seahawks game. It was meager--an average of only 25 minutes, 13 seconds. During this average, the Seahawks mustered only 52 points, or 13 points per game (this point total doesn't count DST points scored, such as the two KRTDs against the Chargers). The Bears game, on the other hand, was the first time the Seahawks won the TOP battle and had the rock for 34 minutes, 23 seconds. Removing the safety, the Seahawks were able to put up 21 points, a full 8 points better given just over 9 minutes of extra offense.
So why bring this up this week?
Because we have 4 games in which the 8 teams are used to either quite a bit more, or quite a bit less TOP than they will receive this Sunday:
SF vs. CAR (combined average TOP = 55:49) - The Panthers are only averaging about 26 minutes and the 49ers just under the 30 minute mark. Obviously they will divvy up the remaining 4 minutes, but the interesting point is who will benefit the most? It turns out, the teams (according to the numbers) aren't expected to gain much from the extra TOP, as one might expect from two rather boring offenses, but with the extra ~2 minutes the 49ers should squeak out a win.
CIN vs. ATL (combined average TOP = 65:44) - Both above the average of 30 minutes by 2 minutes or more, the Falcons tends to do more with their allotted minutes than the Bengals do. The extra minutes off the Cincinnati game will hurt them quite a bit more than it will the Falcons.
ARI vs. SEA (combined average TOP = 53:30) - This is an interesting game also because one of these teams is about to get a sharp uptick in TOP. The Seahawks, as mentioned at the beginning of this post, are one of the best in the league at converting TOP to points (although they--and no other team--are as good as the Titans. If the Titans can find a way to keep the ball out of their opponent's hands, they will destroy any team they face). Given neither team is necessarily a quick scoring offense I believe the team which can establish the run effectively will gain the TOP advantage. Based on this (and really not an homerism) I think the Seahawks will beat the Cardinals.
NYG vs. DAL (combined average TOP = 66:29) - With both teams averaging above 30 minutes and Dallas commanding almost 34 minutes of TOP per game, something clearly has to give. Dallas' offense, for the most part, seems to actually be a powder keg ready to explode. It's clear looking at the numbers that the Cowboys are one of the least effective offenses in terms of converting TOP to points. There are only 9 teams worse at this conversion and 7 are the worst offenses in the league (Carolina, Jacksonville, Cleveland, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Miami and St. Louis). On the flip side is their defense. The TOP masks how bad that Dallas defense is, and a game like this might show it. Dallas is getting a ton of press as being top 5 or so in many offensive and defensive categories, but if the Giants can hold the ball for over 30 minutes we will witness the colossal exposure of the Cowboys' defense. Based on this, I think Dallas is going to get wrecked this weekend. I'm very excited to see the outcome of this game, especially around TOP and the defensive statistics of Dallas.
Offenses ranked by effectiveness based on TOP: New England Patriots Tennessee Titans Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans New York Jets Detroit Lions Philadelphia Eagles San Diego Chargers Green Bay Packers Pittsburgh Steelers Kansas City Chiefs Seattle Seahawks Buffalo Bills New York Giants Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints Chicago Bears Denver Broncos Oakland Raiders Atlanta Falcons Washington Redskins Cincinnati Bengals Dallas Cowboys Jacksonville Jaguars Minnesota Vikings Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins St. Louis Rams San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cleveland Browns Carolina Panthers
Defenses ranked by ineffectiveness based on TOP: Jacksonville Jaguars Buffalo Bills Oakland Raiders Houston Texans Dallas Cowboys Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos Miami Dolphins San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay Buccaneers Detroit Lions Cincinnati Bengals Indianapolis Colts New York Giants New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles Cleveland Browns St. Louis Rams Carolina Panthers Kansas City Chiefs New Orleans Saints Washington Redskins Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings Atlanta Falcons New York Jets Baltimore Ravens Tennessee Titans Chicago Bears Pittsburgh Steelers
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by jdogg_ffc » Wed Oct 20, 2010 5:29 pm 
