Well, I don't think anyone can say that Dallas/Giants game wasn't slightly interesting.
Obviously it is impossible to say what the outcome would have been if Romo was not injured, but the Cowboys' offense is very strong. Jon Kitna got them pretty close, even if the Giants Defense was playing prevent a little early. At the same time, a solid combination of Giants offense suck and Cowboys defense good gave Dallas a lot of fantasy points, even if they were burned for a ton of yardage and a ton of points.
At any rate, here is the "defense accountability post" and what I learned:
- 13 teams were within 6 places of where they were predicted (20% tolerance)
- 10 teams were between 7 places and 12 places of where they were predicted (20-40% tolerance)
- 5 teams were greater than 12 places off
My concept for adjusting the defense formula is to take a look into the last category and adjust, essentially trying to pick the low hanging fruit and get us down to the final 20% or so.
These are the five teams that were in that final category: Oakland (Predicted: 26; Actual: 3)
: A healthy Darren McFadden is clearly more dangerous than a healthy Michael Bush. He tore through the Denver rush defense and gave the defense opportunities until the Denver players finally gave up. I think it would have been tough to predict this outcome.Pittsburgh (Predicted: 2; Actual: 24)
: I hate to go this route again, but the Dolphins outplayed what their offense has been giving up to defenses, and the Steelers underperformed by all accounts. In their previous 5 games, Pittsburgh had only given up more than 13 points on their single loss to Baltimore (17 points). This performance would have been difficult to predict as well.Cleveland (Predicted: 21; Actual: 1)
: Ok, nobody expected this. Period.Atlanta (Predicted: 5; Actual: 20)
: The resurgence (or maybe resurrection?) of Carson Palmer and a good Bengal time of possession might be the culprit here. It's also worth noting there was a higher possibility of of DST TD for Atlanta that might have caused them to be higher than they should have been.New Orleans (Predicted: 11; Actual: 26)
: This is the outcome of Cleveland dominating. The Saints seem to have let the national attention get in their heads and now they are pressing too hard. Losing to the Browns might be that wake up call though.What I learned in Week 7 of 2010:
I learned that I was putting too much emphasis on points. This is the result of trying to pin a pure function on scoring instead of "brackets" like most defensive scoring does. I've made big changes to the way I calculated the scoring for Week 8.
Stay tuned. The predictions are up next...