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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Wed Nov 03, 2010 10:46 am

Defense Accountability Post

14 (of 26) teams were within 6 spots of their prediction
3 teams were between 6-11 spots of their prediction
9 teams were above 11 spots off their prediction*

* - two of these teams were expected: Seattle and Dallas. The third team I pointed out, Arizona, was down 5 spots from the prediction but this falls within the basic guidelines.

Here's a look at a few of the worst and how these might be corrected:

OAK: While I accounted for SEA being a potential trap (and they were) I didn't think that the counter to this would be that the Raiders defense would do better than expected. Given that injuries are going to start coming into play more and more down the stretch I may have to figure out a way to weight individual weeks that were recently played.

IND: A combination of a DTD and a poorly played game by Houston made the Colts a great defense this week. This would have been tough to predict by any change in the formula.

JAC: This is a similar situation to the Oakland defense where we need to begin factoring in recent games. Kitna is an interception machine.

NO: This would have been tough to predict by any change in formula, although I'm beginning to believe a certain factor of home vs. away should play a part in my splits which I currently don't have. This might have fixed the SEA @ OAK game too, but not the Dallas defense.

NE: The Vikings really came on in this game to limit turnovers. They must have sensed a "do or die" moment...tough to predict. I'll need to start looking more into this for warnings and traps in upcoming weeks.

TEN: The Chargers are a strange team this year. Their special teams are historically bad, but this time it only cost them a safety. It's also worth noting that Philip Rivers is amazing and can basically keep them in the game by himself. His offensive output is downright stunning when you look at how terrible their running situation is. This would have been difficult to predict by the numbers any way you slice it.

GB: So they shut out the Jets? I think Rex Ryan better figure out what exactly the Packers did and fix it, otherwise this might be the plan for DCs going forward and it could be a long second half for the Jets.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Wed Nov 03, 2010 11:06 am

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 9.

Code: Select all
Arizona Cardinals     83.29
New Orleans Saints    78.86
New England Patriots  76.09
Seattle Seahawks      73.52
Pittsburgh Steelers   72.49
Green Bay Packers     71.08
Chicago Bears         70.44
Minnesota Vikings     69.41
Kansas City Chiefs    67.61
Atlanta Falcons       67.35
Carolina Panthers     65.23
New York Jets         62.72
Buffalo Bills         61.7
Detroit Lions         60.67
Tampa Bay Buccaneers  59.13
New York Giants       59.13
Dallas Cowboys        56.81
Baltimore Ravens      55.53
Houston Texans        54.05
Indianapolis Colts    53.98
San Diego Chargers    53.53
Cincinnatti Bengals   49.87
Philadelphia Eagles   46.79
Cleveland Browns      45.24
Miami Dolphins        44.73
Oakland Raiders       43.06


NOTE: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I don't have time this morning to go over the "trap" games but hopefully a discussion will ensue regarding the Seahawks and most likely the high ranking of the Panthers this week.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby JoshKnows46 » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:03 am

so, who do you like this week...i'm thinking either seattle or atlanta, which do you rather?

i also have kc avaliable.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby rugame » Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:37 am

JoshKnows46 wrote:so, who do you like this week...i'm thinking either seattle or atlanta, which do you rather?

i also have kc avaliable.


I had the Eagles D and just picked up Atlanta.. so I hope they can hold it together this week.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Thu Nov 04, 2010 2:15 am

JoshKnows46 wrote:so, who do you like this week...i'm thinking either seattle or atlanta, which do you rather?

i also have kc avaliable.


I personally wouldn't touch Seattle and in fact just dropped them for Atlanta in my big money league tonight. Seattle has a very big problem with their once stout D-line. Of the original four starters (Bryant, Mebane, Cole and Clemons) only Clemons is healthy. Bryant was put on IR this week, Mebane has been out the past two weeks (which is the reason why both Arizona and Oakland ran on us, not because they are great running teams) and won't be healthy for week 9, and Cole is out for the next few weeks. To make things worse on the defense, the O-line has lost their new elite LT Russell Okung to another high ankle sprain, their starting LG and RG have both been put on IR and the RT is a revolving door. This means Matt Hasselbeck doesn't have time to throw and there are few running lanes being opened up which means a LOT of 3 and outs putting the defense back on the field.

Now that being said, they've been good at turnovers. If your league doesn't penalize for points and/or yardage they might be a good bet since they'll be on the field the entire time (I'm literally expecting the Seahawks to have less than 20 minutes time of possession for the entire game).

KC's formula score suggest that there is a negligible different between the two, but KC's score is due to an interesting note: KC's run defense is good and their passing defense is below average and OAK's run offense is strong but pass game is weak. For those keeping track, this is the same logic from week 8's SEA @ OAK game and part of the reason for the score.

My first thought was that their run defense was due to being behind late in games and teams needing to catch up racking up large passing totals. But in digging deeper I found that only two QBs have had over 250 yards passing against the Chiefs and in both cases those QBs were really playing catch up during the second half. So what's going on?

The Chiefs have been dominating time of possession through their running game. And their running game appears to be getting better. They've been good with turnovers but Cassel has been making a short field in some cases.

I believe that KC's defensive superiority is a function of their running offense. Because of Oakland's poor rushing defense I think KC will continue to dominate TOP, forcing Oakland to throw and end with a lot of 3 and outs. As a matter of fact, after writing this out I went and checked to see if KC was available for this week in that same big money league to switch out ATL for them. That's how much I feel they will dominate this game.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby JoshKnows46 » Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:06 am

but isn't atlanta in the same situation, bucs have the worst rush defense in the league, atlanta has micheal turner, atalanta should get a lead and force bucs to pass as well, atlanta like KC, is also good at rush defense...only diffrence i see between atlanta and kc this week....is KC is on the road, and atlanta is at home....atlanta is coming of a bye at home, against a team that is on their 2nd leg of back to back road games(meaning bucs will come in flat, as teams off back to back games usally do.) i think this should give atlanta the edge?...i gamble on football, and a big edge i use when making plays is betting against teams on their 2nd leg back to back road games, its very profitable, i also like home teams off of byes, combine those two with atlantas rush offense and rush defense, against bucs complete lack of rush defense, and i think we found our winning defense this week.....also matt ryan has only lost 2 games at home since entering the league, i don't see how atl doesn't jump out to a quick lead...also take into account bucs could still be missing 3 offensive lineman this week, and atlanta has a much stiffer defense than st. louis and zona the last two weeks, could be more of a problem this week then it was those weeks....also looking at the lines bookmakers are predicting kc game to be much closer at -2.5, but they are favoring atlanta by -9, thats a wide margin for a divisional game, vegas just don't make big mistakes with lines..thoughts?

thinking we can't go wrong with atlanta or kc, but giving the slight edge to atlanta.

though tampa does have the better qb, so maybe that evens it out a bit on who to get. gonna be a tough desision, but i know gambling wise, i'll likely be on both atlanta and kc this week.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby JoshKnows46 » Thu Nov 04, 2010 4:35 am

the only two good teams the bucs played, they lost 38-12 to pitt, and 31-6 against the saints, they gave 10 and 18 points to those two defenses those weeks.

most of tampa's sucess offensivly this year has come from playing very bad teams.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby tolleyjenkins » Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:47 am

biju wrote:Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 9.

NOTE: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I don't have time this morning to go over the "trap" games but hopefully a discussion will ensue regarding the Seahawks and most likely the high ranking of the Panthers this week.


Thoughts on Arizona? They're #1 and available in my biggest $ league.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Thu Nov 04, 2010 10:52 am

JoshKnows46 wrote:but isn't atlanta in the same situation, bucs have the worst rush defense in the league, atlanta has micheal turner, atalanta should get a lead and force bucs to pass as well, atlanta like KC, is also good at rush defense...only diffrence i see between atlanta and kc this week....is KC is on the road, and atlanta is at home....atlanta is coming of a bye at home, against a team that is on their 2nd leg of back to back road games(meaning bucs will come in flat, as teams off back to back games usally do.) i think this should give atlanta the edge?...i gamble on football, and a big edge i use when making plays is betting against teams on their 2nd leg back to back road games, its very profitable, i also like home teams off of byes, combine those two with atlantas rush offense and rush defense, against bucs complete lack of rush defense, and i think we found our winning defense this week.....also matt ryan has only lost 2 games at home since entering the league, i don't see how atl doesn't jump out to a quick lead...also take into account bucs could still be missing 3 offensive lineman this week, and atlanta has a much stiffer defense than st. louis and zona the last two weeks, could be more of a problem this week then it was those weeks....also looking at the lines bookmakers are predicting kc game to be much closer at -2.5, but they are favoring atlanta by -9, thats a wide margin for a divisional game, vegas just don't make big mistakes with lines..thoughts?

thinking we can't go wrong with atlanta or kc, but giving the slight edge to atlanta.

though tampa does have the better qb, so maybe that evens it out a bit on who to get. gonna be a tough desision, but i know gambling wise, i'll likely be on both atlanta and kc this week.


Your points are very valid and in terms of who will win I'm quite sure you're correct (of course, depending on the spread). But one thing you're missing is the fantasy football element. The numbers for sacks, turnovers and the chance to a Defensive TD seem to favor KC, but again not by much.

I'm not against ATL for this weekend. KC wasn't available and I'm confident in ATL, but I don't expect ATL to dominate TOP which has been more of an indicator of defensive scoring than I expected it to be.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:06 am

tolleyjenkins wrote:
biju wrote:Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 9.

NOTE: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I don't have time this morning to go over the "trap" games but hopefully a discussion will ensue regarding the Seahawks and most likely the high ranking of the Panthers this week.


Thoughts on Arizona? They're #1 and available in my biggest $ league.


Here's my immediate concern with Arizona: a lot of their numbers are due to an anomalous week 5 with 3 DTDs. Now it is important to note that the Vikings defense isn't what it used to be and they do tend to turn the ball over on offense. The Cardinals are also planning on starting Derek Anderson who certainly gives them the best chance to win and can actually move the ball downfield. (If Max Hall were starting I would absolutely recommend avoiding the Cards DST.)

Still, the numbers here aren't exactly *wrong*, just not completely accurate. If I were to only throw a guess on where they would end up I would put it near 10th or 12th in scoring with a chance of complete bust if they seriously lose the TOP battle (which to me seems to be when teams only control the ball for 24 minutes or less). If I had to put a percentage on the Cards as a defensive pick in week 9 I would put it around 5% they finish top 5, 20% they finish top 10, 30% they finish top 15, and the remaining 45% they finish as a 2nd string DST.
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