Trying to imitate PLindsey

[drmoses]

I'm putting the anti-Cutler theory to the ultimate test. I picked up the Buffalo D and am going to see what happens.

[PBRmeASAP]

I picked up the Bears this week. ATL is available do you guys feel that strongly about them this week?

[AsianChexMix]

I am so mad at myself for listening to this. I had New Orleans Defense ready and then heard all the stuff about Atlanta. *sigh* What happened, numbers wise?

[biju]

I am so mad at myself for listening to this. I had New Orleans Defense ready and then heard all the stuff about Atlanta. *sigh* What happened, numbers wise?

From strictly a numbers perspective the NO defense was ranked #2 for week 9. There might have been some confusion on my endorsing ATL this week, but that's because they were the highest ranked available DST in my leagues and finished a respectable 11th, meaning they were a low end DST 1. Maybe the lesson learned here for me is to not inject my personal moves because I play in larger leagues or dynasty leagues where the top 15 or so defenses are often taken each week.

I did miss the boat on Arizona however, who I thought wasn't going to be as strong a defense as they were, even with the numbers pointing to them being a top defense this week. It might be time to stop dismissing the Cards as a fluke of one or two weeks.

[JoshKnows46]

I am so mad at myself for listening to this. I had New Orleans Defense ready and then heard all the stuff about Atlanta. *sigh* What happened, numbers wise?

you should never sit your studs, expcially against carolina, thats a no brainer their dude...this thread was for what was left....start new olreans the rest of the way, they got two of the best corners in the league back last week, you should know that.....you can't sit that defense, expecially now that they are healthy.....what about the carolina match-up would scare you?

[biju]

Defense Accountability Post

14 (of 26) teams were within 5 spots of their prediction
5 teams were between 6-11 spots of their prediction
7 teams were above 11 spots off their prediction*

* - two of these teams were expected: Seattle and Carolina.

Here's a look at a few of the worst and how these might be corrected:

OAK: This is the Raiders claiming the top spot twice in a row for the formula being the furthest off. How are they doing it? By severely limiting the KC running game. It might be said that the Chiefs underutilized Jamaal Charles in this game, but let's not take anything away from one of the hottest defenses in the league right now. While the Raiders didn't win the TOP, it' worth noting that for a team who supposedly has one of the worst rush defenses they did a great job containing the run against one of the best running offenses in the league. Tom Cable and crew are calling great games down there...let's see if they can do it on the road.

NE: This game would have been difficult to predict. The Patriots tend to take advantage of mistakes and the Browns tend to make them. I'm not sure anyone saw this outcome coming. Mangini certainly had his former mentor's number this week.

SEA: With decimiated offensive and defensive lines and going against one of the best teams in the league I'm sure nobody expected them to live up to their numbers. The Seahawks won't be a defense you want to own until Brandon Mebane, Colin Cole and Russell Okung come backto provide line stability.

CLE: See the New England spot.

BAL: This game between them and the Dolphins was one of those games where both teams had been winning the TOP through the season. What didn't show through the numbers was how much the Dolphins rely on TOP to win games. Both offenses are pretty inefficient with time, but the Ravens defense is still strong while the Dolphins tend to give up a lot of points when the other team has the ball. I need to figure out a way to get this into my stats as once again the TOP seems to tell a good story here.

CAR: I highly doubt anyone picked up the Panthers to play this week, but this ranking is about how bad the New Orleans offense has been than anything else. I still think the Saints are a team to pick on down the stretch unless they somehow have gained confidence in picking on the skinny kid in week 9.

PHI: This is the last of the bad misses. When looking over the pre-game numbers the Eagles and Colts are surprisingly similar on offense, defense, special teams, and TOP. It's not a shocker that this was a close game. I've got to think that getting Vick back might have helped the Eagles win TOP just slightly and thus the score difference. This also had a big impact on the Eagles DST as well and they might be a team to watch down the stretch for good matchups against weaker defenses and offenses.

[AsianChexMix]

I think I just misunderstood both of your analysis. Luckily, it didn't change the result of a win but I just naturally assumed what you two were talking about but it's all good.

[biju]

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 10.

Code: Select all

Tampa Bay Buccaneers    90.70
Chicago Bears           83.86
Tennessee Titans        76.24
Seattle Seahawks        75.45
Arizona Cardinals       73.45
Kansas City Chiefs      70.91
Philadelphia Eagles     68.55
Detroit Lions           64.32
New York Jets           63.83
Minnesota Vikings       63.17
St. Louis Rams          62.26
New York Giants         61.23
Washington Redskins     57.60
New England Patriots    56.81
Atlanta Falcons         56.51
Indianapolis Colts      56.45
San Francisco 49ers     55.06
Carolina Panthers       54.27
Dallas Cowboys          53.55
Pittsburgh Steelers     53.30
Cleveland Browns        52.76
Baltimore Ravens        47.25
Buffalo Bills           44.53
Jacksonville Jaguars    43.62
Miami Dolphins          43.32
Houston Texans          42.35
Cincinnatti Bengals     39.03
Denver Broncos          34.73


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

I'll take some time to go over some of the weird ones if anyone has specific questions or if I see something that might be misleading, but I'm going to try to stay out of the guessing business because that failed me twice last week. With the way the projections are working right now I'm pretty satisfied, although not content. I'm always updating...

[buffalobillsrul2002]

TB looks like the obvious play this week. Carolina is so bad offensively, and TB might even be on the waiver wire in some leagues.

Then of the Ds that aren't widely owned, I'd say the Cardinals are probably next best, considering they get Seattle at home, and Hasselbeck may or may not play.

I think the Giants (only 60% owned in ESPN leagues) might be the surprise pick of the week here. They get Jon Kitna and a Cowboys team that hasn't even tried to run the ball lately. Kitna's a statue back there, Cowboys have struggled to block, and the Giants can certainly rush the passer. I might be talking myself into this as my D this week. Of course you have what could be a rejuvenated Cowboys team in a divisional game, which screws things up somewhat. Who do we like better, Giants or Cardinals?

Any other picks that we really like (ideally defenses that aren't owned in most leagues).

[Fuqyu]

Frankly, I'm shocked the Giants aren't owned in almost all leagues, they haven't been available in mine all season. I'm going to try my luck with the Cards this week, I badmouthed them last week and look what they did.