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Trying to imitate PLindsey

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Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:51 am

I don't have time to do my normal accountability post, but let's just say it wouldn't have been of much use anyway. Denver blows out KC, Dallas blows out the Giants, Buffalo wins a game, and the Redskins get STOMPED by the Eagles make it a wild week that was extremely unpredictable. Quite honestly, the parity of this year has been unmatched in the past decade. It's refreshing, although difficult to make good predictions. Having said that, let's do Week 11's numbers:

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 11.

Code: Select all
Green Bay Packers       90.66
Baltimore Ravens        81.32
Tennessee Titans        78.60
Kansas City Chiefs      76.26
Chicago Bears           74.71
Philadelphia Eagles     72.76
Seattle Seahawks        69.65
Detroit Lions           69.65
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    68.09
Pittsburgh Steelers     66.93
Arizona Cardinals       64.98
Atlanta Falcons         64.98
Miami Dolphins          64.59
Denver Broncos          59.53
Oakland Raiders         58.75
New Orleans Saints      58.37
Cleveland Browns        56.42
San Diego Chargers      56.42
Dallas Cowboys          56.03
New England Patriots    55.64
New York Jets           54.86
Washington Redskins     54.86
Cincinnatti Bengals     53.31
St. Louis Rams          52.53
Buffalo Bills           52.14
Jacksonville Jaguars    52.14
San Francisco 49ers     50.97
Minnesota Vikings       48.64
New York Giants         48.25
Carolina Panthers       46.69
Indianapolis Colts      45.53
Houston Texans          36.58


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby BriGuy » Fri Nov 19, 2010 3:33 pm

So Giants are no good this week? :~(

I need to pick up a team off the waivers then. Let's get some discussion about some sleeper DST.

What about the Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, or Cardinals? Who has the most value in the upcoming weeks? Gonna drop one of my bench players for one of these teams.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Fri Nov 19, 2010 6:32 pm

BriGuy wrote:So Giants are no good this week? :~(

I need to pick up a team off the waivers then. Let's get some discussion about some sleeper DST.

What about the Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, or Cardinals? Who has the most value in the upcoming weeks? Gonna drop one of my bench players for one of these teams.


Let me go so far as to state that in looking over the Giants/Eagles game I noticed two things:

1. As a whole, the Eagles offense doesn't tend to make very many mistakes. Furthermore, the opposing defense tends to get few sacks on Vick due to his speed.

2. The time of possession is going to be of huge importance to these two teams. Both tend to average nearly 33 minutes of TOP and clearly that will not happen during regulation. I don't have my spreadsheet with me at work, but this is likely going to mean a bigger than just losing a few minutes for one team or another. I'll get back on this one later tonight.

Having said that, the Giants are the #1 defense in the NFL this year and one of the top fantasy defenses. Even with a bad matchup I'm not sure I would recommend sitting them.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby WaCougMBS » Thu Nov 25, 2010 3:19 am

Is there an update coming this week?
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Thu Nov 25, 2010 11:03 am

My apologies for not getting this done this week in time. It snowed in Seattle meaning everything was crazy...and I'm hosting Thanksgiving this year, meaning my week was really crazy. For those of you who may actually benefit, here it is...

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 12.

Code: Select all
Cleveland Browns        90.57
Philadelphia Eagles     75.42
Washington Redskins     71.72
Arizona Cardinals       70.71
New York Jets           67.00
New England Patriots    66.33
Tennessee Titans        65.66
Oakland Raiders         64.98
San Francisco 49ers     63.97
Dallas Cowboys          63.64
Pittsburgh Steelers     63.30
Indianapolis Colts      62.96
Green Bay Packers       62.29
Minnesota Vikings       59.93
Chicago Bears           59.93
Kansas City Chiefs      59.26
New York Giants         59.26
Carolina Panthers       58.59
New Orleans Saints      57.91
St. Louis Rams          56.90
Baltimore Ravens        56.57
Miami Dolphins          56.23
Atlanta Falcons         56.23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    55.89
Jacksonville Jaguars    54.88
Seattle Seahawks        52.53
Cincinnati Bengals      49.16
Detroit Lions           48.48
Denver Broncos          48.15
San Diego Chargers      46.13
Buffalo Bills           45.45
Houston Texans          39.06


A NOTE about Normalization: Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

The obviously choice is the team playing the Panthers, which this week is the Browns. It's worth noting that according to the normalization Oakland isn't anything special this week, but that's because the numbers haven't had a chance to catch up with the Dolphins yet. If you're in a bind I'd consider them as well.

Good luck!
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby WaCougMBS » Thu Dec 02, 2010 12:49 pm

Week 13 coming soon? :-?

Also, will there be some form of "for the next three weeks"/playoffs version in our future? ;-)
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby shawngee03 » Thu Dec 02, 2010 2:51 pm

ATL plays Car week 14, Ariz has them week 15...i just picked both of them up in a league for weeks 14 and 15
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby u_fig_eater » Thu Dec 02, 2010 4:04 pm

I've stashed San Diego for the playoffs. SF, @CIN.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby biju » Tue Dec 07, 2010 11:42 am

Sorry for the miss last week everyone. Too many things going on right now. I did manage to do week 14 if anyone is interested:

Code: Select all
Atlanta Falcons       93.45
Pittsburgh Steelers   76.07
Tampa Bay Buccaneers  75.78
New York Giants       72.36
Green Bay Packers     72.08
New England Patriots  71.79
Kansas City Chiefs    71.23
New York Jets         71.23
Tennessee Titans      70.09
Philadelphia Eagles   68.66
Seattle Seahawks      67.52
Oakland Raiders       66.95
Cleveland Browns      66.67
Arizona Cardinals     66.10
St. Louis Rams        65.24
Denver Broncos        61.54
Buffalo Bills         60.97
Minnesota Vikings     59.26
Detroit Lions         57.26
New Orleans Saints    57.26
Baltimore Ravens      56.98
Dallas Cowboys        56.70
Cincinnati Bengals    56.13
Chicago Bears         56.13
Jacksonville Jaguars  55.56
Miami Dolphins        55.56
Indianapolis Colts    54.99
Washington Redskins   54.99
San Diego Chargers    53.85
San Francisco 49ers   53.56
Carolina Panthers     50.71
Houston Texans        46.15


It's clear that you want the team that plays Carolina each week and this will be no exception. The Falcons also have a great week 15 matchup against the Seahawks as well so hopefully you have them stashed away.
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Re: Trying to imitate PLindsey

Postby Instinctive » Tue Dec 14, 2010 8:48 am

Let's get week 15 going, for all those who advanced a round : )
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