I don't have time to do my normal accountability post, but let's just say it wouldn't have been of much use anyway. Denver blows out KC, Dallas blows out the Giants, Buffalo wins a game, and the Redskins get STOMPED by the Eagles make it a wild week that was extremely unpredictable. Quite honestly, the parity of this year has been unmatched in the past decade. It's refreshing, although difficult to make good predictions. Having said that, let's do Week 11's numbers:
Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 11.
Green Bay Packers 90.66 Baltimore Ravens 81.32 Tennessee Titans 78.60 Kansas City Chiefs 76.26 Chicago Bears 74.71 Philadelphia Eagles 72.76 Seattle Seahawks 69.65 Detroit Lions 69.65 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 68.09 Pittsburgh Steelers 66.93 Arizona Cardinals 64.98 Atlanta Falcons 64.98 Miami Dolphins 64.59 Denver Broncos 59.53 Oakland Raiders 58.75 New Orleans Saints 58.37 Cleveland Browns 56.42 San Diego Chargers 56.42 Dallas Cowboys 56.03 New England Patriots 55.64 New York Jets 54.86 Washington Redskins 54.86 Cincinnatti Bengals 53.31 St. Louis Rams 52.53 Buffalo Bills 52.14 Jacksonville Jaguars 52.14 San Francisco 49ers 50.97 Minnesota Vikings 48.64 New York Giants 48.25 Carolina Panthers 46.69 Indianapolis Colts 45.53 Houston Texans 36.58
A NOTE about Normalization:Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.
I need to pick up a team off the waivers then. Let's get some discussion about some sleeper DST.
What about the Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, or Cardinals? Who has the most value in the upcoming weeks? Gonna drop one of my bench players for one of these teams.
I need to pick up a team off the waivers then. Let's get some discussion about some sleeper DST.
What about the Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, or Cardinals? Who has the most value in the upcoming weeks? Gonna drop one of my bench players for one of these teams.
Let me go so far as to state that in looking over the Giants/Eagles game I noticed two things:
1. As a whole, the Eagles offense doesn't tend to make very many mistakes. Furthermore, the opposing defense tends to get few sacks on Vick due to his speed.
2. The time of possession is going to be of huge importance to these two teams. Both tend to average nearly 33 minutes of TOP and clearly that will not happen during regulation. I don't have my spreadsheet with me at work, but this is likely going to mean a bigger than just losing a few minutes for one team or another. I'll get back on this one later tonight.
Having said that, the Giants are the #1 defense in the NFL this year and one of the top fantasy defenses. Even with a bad matchup I'm not sure I would recommend sitting them.
My apologies for not getting this done this week in time. It snowed in Seattle meaning everything was crazy...and I'm hosting Thanksgiving this year, meaning my week was really crazy. For those of you who may actually benefit, here it is...
Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 12.
Cleveland Browns 90.57 Philadelphia Eagles 75.42 Washington Redskins 71.72 Arizona Cardinals 70.71 New York Jets 67.00 New England Patriots 66.33 Tennessee Titans 65.66 Oakland Raiders 64.98 San Francisco 49ers 63.97 Dallas Cowboys 63.64 Pittsburgh Steelers 63.30 Indianapolis Colts 62.96 Green Bay Packers 62.29 Minnesota Vikings 59.93 Chicago Bears 59.93 Kansas City Chiefs 59.26 New York Giants 59.26 Carolina Panthers 58.59 New Orleans Saints 57.91 St. Louis Rams 56.90 Baltimore Ravens 56.57 Miami Dolphins 56.23 Atlanta Falcons 56.23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55.89 Jacksonville Jaguars 54.88 Seattle Seahawks 52.53 Cincinnati Bengals 49.16 Detroit Lions 48.48 Denver Broncos 48.15 San Diego Chargers 46.13 Buffalo Bills 45.45 Houston Texans 39.06
A NOTE about Normalization:Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.
The obviously choice is the team playing the Panthers, which this week is the Browns. It's worth noting that according to the normalization Oakland isn't anything special this week, but that's because the numbers haven't had a chance to catch up with the Dolphins yet. If you're in a bind I'd consider them as well.
Atlanta Falcons 93.45 Pittsburgh Steelers 76.07 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75.78 New York Giants 72.36 Green Bay Packers 72.08 New England Patriots 71.79 Kansas City Chiefs 71.23 New York Jets 71.23 Tennessee Titans 70.09 Philadelphia Eagles 68.66 Seattle Seahawks 67.52 Oakland Raiders 66.95 Cleveland Browns 66.67 Arizona Cardinals 66.10 St. Louis Rams 65.24 Denver Broncos 61.54 Buffalo Bills 60.97 Minnesota Vikings 59.26 Detroit Lions 57.26 New Orleans Saints 57.26 Baltimore Ravens 56.98 Dallas Cowboys 56.70 Cincinnati Bengals 56.13 Chicago Bears 56.13 Jacksonville Jaguars 55.56 Miami Dolphins 55.56 Indianapolis Colts 54.99 Washington Redskins 54.99 San Diego Chargers 53.85 San Francisco 49ers 53.56 Carolina Panthers 50.71 Houston Texans 46.15
It's clear that you want the team that plays Carolina each week and this will be no exception. The Falcons also have a great week 15 matchup against the Seahawks as well so hopefully you have them stashed away.
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by biju » Tue Nov 16, 2010 10:51 am 
