Waiver Wire Defense Formula - Week 8

[biju]

Here are the normalized (see below for details) projections for Week 8.

Code: Select all

Tennessee Titans        89.32
New England Patriots    84.95
St. Louis Rams          82.04
Pittsburgh Steelers     79.94
Seattle Seahawks        71.44
Arizona Cardinals       70.79
Tampa Bay Buccaneers    67.96
Dallas Cowboys          67.23
Detroit Lions           65.53
Washington Redskins     63.83
Kansas City Chiefs      61.73
Miami Dolphins          60.60
New York Jets           60.60
Cincinnatti Bengals     60.03
Green Bay Packers       58.01
San Francisco 49ers     57.77
Carolina Panthers       57.69
Denver Broncos          51.94
San Diego Chargers      51.94
Oakland Raiders         51.13
Minnesota Vikings       46.44
Indianapolis Colts      45.87
New Orleans Saints      45.63
Jacksonville Jaguars    43.20
Buffalo Bills           31.15
Houston Texans          27.18


(1) - Normalized projections are derived by taking the highest possible scoring defensive matchup (best DST matchup between two teams) and the lowest possible scoring defensive matchup, creating a scale of 0-100 and assigning value to each matchup score to give an overall rating so you can make relevance decisions instead of simply trading up to get higher on the chart.

These are the DSTs that I would consider "traps" due to their numbers, how they achieved them, and who they are facing this week:
Seattle Seahawks: With the exception of the Chicago game the Seahawks have played poorly on the road. They will try to control the time of possession by running on the Raiders. If they cannot get that going *OR* the Raiders stake an early lead Seattle will be forced to throw to win which will mean a lot of 3 and outs and more running from Oakland. Also of note is the absence of Brandon Mebane, who turns a middle-of-the-road run defense into the #2 ranked rush defense we currently see.

Arizona Cardinals: Helped greatly by good secondary coverage and Seattle's poor execution in the red zone the Cards didn't have as many points hung on them as they should have. By all accounts they could have easily had 7 more points put up on them, and possibly 11. They have also been greatly helped by abberations in sacks and DST TDs the past two weeks. They aren't this good.

Dallas Cowboys: They roughed up the Giants offense and have performed well this year, but it is difficult to see how Romo's injury will affect them. They lost the time of possession battle handily on Monday night and as expected they were exposed with yards and points. They face an inept Jacksonville offense so they could offset being tired with opportunity, but I'm still unsure on this one. They might be worth the gamble if you don't have better options.

[robotninja]

So who do you feel is going to be good, I have the Chiefs vs Buf, the Skins @ Det, Cards vs TB, and SD vs Ten.

Ive been leanings towards the Chiefs so far. Not sure what to think about Wash, either Stafford comes back and blows them up or he is off which could lead to problems.

[glackk]

Great work once again!

Minny, Carolina, Arizona, and San Diego(!) have all been fantasy goldmines for opposing defenses, so I'm not surprised to see New England, St Louis, Tampa, and Tennessee ranked so high this week. I have the Rams in a couple leagues, so I hope you're right!

[biju]

So who do you feel is going to be good, I have the Chiefs vs Buf, the Skins @ Det, Cards vs TB, and SD vs Ten.

Ive been leanings towards the Chiefs so far. Not sure what to think about Wash, either Stafford comes back and blows them up or he is off which could lead to problems.

There are two very basic components to each matchup before they are normalized:

- How strong the Defense is (*for fantasy purposes)
- How weak the Offense is (*for fantasy purposes)

In many cases, DSTs are usually ranked high or low because of one component or the other, however in special cases a matchup has both a strong defense and weak offense. I highlight "for fantasy purposes" because often the top teams are not actual top defensesor offenses, but rather offenses that are prone to mistakes or disciplined and defenses that consistently put themselves in strong positions or struggle with their execution.

With this in mind, the aforementioned Defenses break down like so:

KC: An above average Defense vs. an slightly above average offense
WAS: An average Defense vs. an average Offense
ARI: A strong Defense vs. an average Offense
SD: An average Defense bs. a stronger Offense

Here's where the "behind the scenes" numbers tell a different story however (and what I've been struggling with trying to exhibit in the predictions, although I've got a plan).

ARI vs. TB: The Arizona defense is rated strong only because of a dominating performance against the Saints. While I hate taking away those points, it shows about an above average defense. Furthermore, when looking at time of possession (TOP) it shows the Cardinals might have defensive issues. This means more opportunity for the defense in sacks and turnovers, but is usually negated by the higher points against.

KC vs. BUF: The Chiefs will win he TOP battles and control the clock longer than they are used to. The Bills are the 2nd most ineffective team in the league while on defense and will begin to lose the game. The problem here is that the Chiefs are very vulnerable to the pass and the Bills have been extremely effective passing the ball. This would be a great week to own Fitzpatrick.

WAS @ DET: This is a bad matchup for Wasington. While they should be able to stay in this game, both their offense and defense is too ineffective and the numbers suggest Detroit up in the game with Washington trying to pass to catch up. This usually results in 3 and outs and a tired defense. The wildcard here is Albert Haynesworth and how we matches up with Jahvid Best to control TOP.

SD vs. TEN: Another poor matchup. The Titans have on of the stronger offenses and are extremely efficient. San Diego will once again need to rely on passing to keep them in the game. I feel sorry for Ryan Mathews owners--he's not going to have a good game.

Based on this, KC is likely to have the best game but will likely get beaten up in points and yardage. If your league heavily penalizes points and yardage you might need to consider WAS. I'd stay away from SD and ARI personally.

I hope this helps.

[robotninja]

Wow thanks for the breakdown, my team is pretty solid so ive been stockpiling defenses to play on matchup by matchup. Would you reccomend the Rams or Cowboys over any of my previous options I could grab them and drop SD without a prob as SD hasnt been good and doesnt have a good matchups coming along either.

[biju]

Wow thanks for the breakdown, my team is pretty solid so ive been stockpiling defenses to play on matchup by matchup. Would you reccomend the Rams or Cowboys over any of my previous options I could grab them and drop SD without a prob as SD hasnt been good and doesnt have a good matchups coming along either.

People may look at the Panthers beating the 49ers with Matt Moore coming back in and think they've got a shot, but the truth is that 49ers team is very broken. The Rams are a surprisingly stout defense and very dominant at home. It's possible Moore has woke up and will start playing at a higher level than he did in the beginning of the season, but I doubt it.

Now, they might not be a great DST every week but they do have a particularly good week 16 matchup with SF heading out to St. Louis and a 49ers team that will certainly be playing for nothing.

I'm a believer in the Rams DST this week.

[Dr.Bloodmoney]

What do you think of the Buccs this week @ Az ? I'm thinking this should be a favorable match up but love to hear your opinion.

[harold_bush]

New to team defenses, played IDP leagues prior. I've got the Jets D and while they are supposed ot be one of the better real life defenses, it doesn't seem they are anything special in fantasy. Scoring is different league to league, but it seems like Jets don't get a lot of sacks or tunrovers, so they dont' score large. Any thoughts on the Jets this week at home vs. Packers?

[needawinner]

I am a little confused here. The Jets are my normal Defense but am leaning towards benching them. I am trying to decide between the Redskins, Rams, and Chiefs. My league does penalize quite heavily for points allowed. Could you please advise me as to which defense I should pick up and play? Thanks for your time and advice that you put into your column.

[JoshKnows46]

Wow thanks for the breakdown, my team is pretty solid so ive been stockpiling defenses to play on matchup by matchup. Would you reccomend the Rams or Cowboys over any of my previous options I could grab them and drop SD without a prob as SD hasnt been good and doesnt have a good matchups coming along either.

People may look at the Panthers beating the 49ers with Matt Moore coming back in and think they've got a shot, but the truth is that 49ers team is very broken. The Rams are a surprisingly stout defense and very dominant at home. It's possible Moore has woke up and will start playing at a higher level than he did in the beginning of the season, but I doubt it.

Now, they might not be a great DST every week but they do have a particularly good week 16 matchup with SF heading out to St. Louis and a 49ers team that will certainly be playing for nothing.

I'm a believer in the Rams DST this week.

rams are very banged up on the dline, and secondary...i'd love to start them, if they weren't so banged up....does your formula take injures into account?

what would be your 2nd favorite defense after st. louis? ne and bucs were already picked up from my league.