Comm's Waiver Wire Defense formula, Week 15 and 16 preview

[comm1680]

Not a bad week for the formula. 8 of the top 9 were above 5 points, BUT none of the top 4 were below 13. If you picked up Atlanta or New England you did well with 13 and 20 points respectively. Looks like I was wrong on the Oakland pick. Hopefully you stayed away from the boom/bust Denver pick. They completely busted (the whole team really, coming from an Orton owner).

On to this week. I've also included a preview for next.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Higher scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

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Team             Opponent         Score
Arizona          Carolina         2139
Minnesota        Chicago          1920
Carolina         Arizona          1881
Pittsburgh       New York Jets    1864
Chicago          Minnesota        1831
San Diego        San Fran         1728
New York Giants  Philadelphia     1664
Cleveland        Cincinatti       1554
Oakland          Denver           1548
Atlanta          Seattle          1497
New York Jets    Pittsburgh       1477
Miami            Buffalo          1467
Dallas           Washington       1209
Philadelphia     New York Giants  1149
Detroit          Tampa Bay        1068
New Orleans      Baltimore        1049
Indianapolis     Jacksonville      954
San Fran         San Diego         939
Kansas City      St. Louis         846
Tennessee        Houston           839
Tampa Bay        Detroit           790
Buffalo          Miami             777
New England      Green Bay         765
Cincinatti       Cleveland         702
Green Bay        New England       614
St. Louis        Kansas City       588
Washington       Dallas            535
Baltimore        New Orleans       439
Denver           Oakland           257
Houston          Tennessee         201
Seattle          Atlanta            62
Jacksonville     Indianapolis     -271


Arizona is a good matchup on paper. Their crappy run defense scares me a little. But Carolina is a lock for a few turnovers. They aren't a bad play. Just don't expect huge numbers. If you got Atlanta last week, you may want to roll with them. Seattle is full of injuries at the moment. Just watch updates on their receivers returning.

It's a tough week for desperation plays. Carolina, at home, vs Arizona doesn't look like a bad play. I got burned by picking against Arizona last week, but I'm not sold on their resurgence yet. Also, Oakland could be a great play. Denver looks like a team that has given up. Oakland could run all over them and force Orton into more TOs.

Week 16 Preview:

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Team             Opponent         Score
Pittsburgh       Carolina         3432
New York Jets    Chicago          2536
Philadelphia     Minnesota        1945
San Diego        Cincinatti       1833
New York Giants  Green Bay        1788
Dallas           Arizona          1712
Detroit          Miami            1663
St. Louis        San Fran         1631
Green Bay        New York Giants  1403
Tampa Bay        Seattle          1286
Miami            Detroit          1196
Cleveland        Baltimore        1171
Chicago          New York Jets    1170
New England      Buffalo          1159
Baltimore        Cleveland        1090
Jacksonville     Washington       1059
Washington       Jacksonville     1030
Indianapolis     Oakland           929
San Fran         St. Louis         884
Carolina         Pittsburgh        873
Kansas City      Tennessee         803
Atlanta          New Orleans       669
Houston          Denver            609
Arizona          Dallas            576
Seattle          Tampa Bay         550
Oakland          Indianapolis      479
Minnesota        Philadelphia      468
Cincinatti       San Diego         464
Tennessee        Kansas City       417
New Orleans      Atlanta           286
Denver           Houston          -389
Buffalo          New England      -636


[silverZ]

Thanks!

[chcbb]

Should I go with Miami, Cleveland, Minnesota or San Diego for week 15 (and looking forward to 16)? I don't know if I trust Minny who's ranked first on your list...

[comm1680]

Should I go with Miami, Cleveland, Minnesota or San Diego for week 15 (and looking forward to 16)? I don't know if I trust Minny who's ranked first on your list...

Minnesota should be decent this week. San Diego looks good if you're looking for a play for both weeks though.

[Seahawk]

Very Cool and extremely interesting. Thanks for sharing. I like Oak this week as well I think they'll be a sneaky pick up. The one that I was not surprised to see where it is but think should be a very good play would be New England if Rodgers isn't going to play. I understand why it's ranked where it's ranked but the dynamics of GB changes so much without Rodgers in at QB.

[WWM]

my options are Cleveland , Arizona or Carolina... your thoughts. I currently have cleveland starting due to the turnover for td streak palmer is on and hayden is playing lights out. I am leaning toward Arizona / carolina but rookie qb's scare me.

[Seahawk]

I liked Cleveland a lot, Still do. I would have said they where a top 5 D/ST the rest of the way until Delhomme got back behind the ball as is now there still a top tier D/ST but without McCoy I just don't feel as comfortable playing them. I had my doubts when McCoy went down and when they only managed four fantasy points when they played Carolina I knew Delhomme made them an overall weaker team and a risky fantasy play.

[comm1680]

my options are Cleveland , Arizona or Carolina... your thoughts. I currently have cleveland starting due to the turnover for td streak palmer is on and hayden is playing lights out. I am leaning toward Arizona / carolina but rookie qb's scare me.

If it makes you feel any better, after I saw that Williams and Obo are going to be back for Seattle, I dropped Atlanta for Arizona. Carolina hasn't allowed less than 30 points at home since week 7. That's crazy and bodes well for the rookie QB. Arizona is also in the top 10 for INTs for the season and top 6 for the last 5 weeks. Depending what we hear over the course of the week, I may go with Oakland instead (Denver looks to have given up). But it's AZ for now.

[Seahawk]

What do you think of NE ?

[comm1680]

What do you think of NE ?

I like them a lot, assuming Rodgers is out. Unfortunately they are gone in my league.