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2010 Season Errors

Postby Kareighuis » Sun Dec 19, 2010 7:50 am

Or, Where I Failed.

This year was a difficult one for me. Across my dynasty, keeper and redraft leagues, I had certain expectations on how my teams would perform. I was wrong on many of them, confusing confidence and optimism. I'm hoping, by listing my draft/trade failures, I can identify faulty reasoning. Perhaps, by comparing problems this season with other FFers, we can determine common failures from this season.

-My struggles began at the top of the draft. I took Chris Johnson, ultimately not properly weighing CJ4.24's late-season run in 2009. I took MJD 2nd overall in another league, but my struggles (and impatience) led me to trade him before he turned it on. I've never been an All Day believer and would have taken any of the other big 4 over him. I had Ray Rice in 1 league, but that was as a keeper. Didn't expect Baltimore to turn away from Rice and try to turn into an aerial assault team.

-I didn't properly evaluate how much Carolina would struggle. QB, OL and defense issues didn't allow the team to commit to the run, severely impacting DWill's and JStew's production. I drafted them in a redraft league as an RB2 and RB3, respectively. This one error destroyed an entire team's season single-handedly.

-Even with Parcells questioning Chad Henne's ability/commitment in the preseason, I went to heavy on Miami. Overall, I drafted both RBs (Brown+Ricky), drafted Marshall and traded for Henne in a dynasty. I didn't properly evaluate Miami's borderline-adequate offensive line, figuring a shifting pressure defense and the occasional Wildcat would keeping the running game strong and give the passing game room.

-Thoroughly misread Indy's running game, Donald Brown in particular. I thought he'd be productive this year and throughout his career. What I didn't expect was the coaching staff would continue to stick him in as blitz blocker. His smaller size suggests to me he should be an outlet receiver to beat the blitz; instead they kept him in and he kept getting run over. Peyton wasn't amused.

-Randy Moss- Ugh. Drafted the best-available WR. Whoulda known that wouldna been Randy.

- Drafted Beannie Wells, Greene and Barber to combine to be every-week RB2 and RB3 in a league where I could start 3. Greene has a very lengthy thread examining his failures in meeting expectations. Wells' situation was very similar to DAW's and Stewart's- QB and oline issues. His team's issues were exacerbated by his repeated injury issues. I handcuffed Barber and Choice, figuring I'd get the 2nd RB in one of 09's top running teams. Didn't expect Felix Jones to be relevant offensively, or their offensive struggles.

-Baltimore's offensive-identity issues negatively impacted both Ray Rice and Joe Flacco. Thought Flacco could be about 10th in QB scoring. Didn't fully realize tough and/or divisional games at the beginning of the season wouldn't get me the production I expected.

-I played a greater variety of leagues this year than ever. One league, you could start 3 RBs and 2 WRs. Another, 4 WRs and a RB. Another, 3 RBs- or 3 TEs. The common element- the abundance of flex options. I've had random exchanges here with Cafers about how starting requirements affect player value. After my experiences this year, I've come to the conclusion that absolutely the more you start of a position, the higher the value of players that play that position.

Those're the issues I can think of off the top of my head. I'd be interested in hearing what errors others made. Maybe, there'll be a pattern.
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby Azrael » Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:36 am

I don't know if it is an issue of failure but every year there is a discussion about whether to take a QB early or not is a good idea. Well this year in my main money league all 4 teams that made it had top flight QBs. The guys picking 7th, 8th, and 10th took Rodgers, Brees, and Manning made the playoffs and all had no more than 4 losses. I, picking 2nd, also made the playoffs with my main QB being Rivers, but I definitely would not have made it without playing Vick instead late in the year.

Just a thought, after the exceptional year Foster had he really crapped out on owners this week, garnering a lowly 5 points, his 2nd worst total of the season.
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby u_fig_eater » Mon Dec 20, 2010 2:17 am

1) Randy Moss.
2) My gut said to pick up Michael Vick, both pre- and post- Kolb concussion. Somehow let "experts" convince me there was "no way" Vick would keep the job. I WAS smart enough to keep him in one league.
3) I was smart enough to take Maclin and Bowe as mid-round steals, but I was impatient and cut both.
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby FantasyMan13 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 2:46 am

Kareighuis wrote:I've never been an All Day believer and would have taken any of the other big 4 over him.


:-?

Boldin has been the biggest disappointment for me. I bought into the hype and drafted him in one league and traded for him around week 4 in another. Out of 4 leagues, I had 2 bad trades, and they both came in the same league:

I gave: McCoy and Malcom Floyd
I got: Matt Ryan, Hakeem Nicks, and JStew

This looked good at the time because McCoy had just gotten hurt, but I misjudged Ryan's value (already had Eli) and thought McCoy's injury was worse than it was. This was forgiveable, though.

Then I did...

I gave: Knowshonn
I got: Boldin and Brandon Jackson

Like I said, I thought Boldin would dominate this year, but he really disappointed, especially in the 2nd half of the year. If I could take back those 2 trades Id probably be in the championship next week. I still went 9-4 and was 1 point away from winning my division and a first round bye. I lost in the first round.

I think what we saw this year is the huge role injuries plays in fantasy strategy. Injuries can cripple teams at crucial points in the season, and they need to be implemented in drafting and, especially, trading. I got a lot of flak when I traded Nicks for Miles Austin in week 10, but I knew my team wasn't good enough to lose a key player to an injury, so I took the risk because I figured Nicks was more likely to get hurt than Austin. I learned a lot from this year.
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby FantasyMan13 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 2:57 am

Azrael wrote:I don't know if it is an issue of failure but every year there is a discussion about whether to take a QB early or not is a good idea. Well this year in my main money league all 4 teams that made it had top flight QBs. The guys picking 7th, 8th, and 10th took Rodgers, Brees, and Manning made the playoffs and all had no more than 4 losses. I, picking 2nd, also made the playoffs with my main QB being Rivers, but I definitely would not have made it without playing Vick instead late in the year.

Just a thought, after the exceptional year Foster had he really crapped out on owners this week, garnering a lowly 5 points, his 2nd worst total of the season.


Yeah, Id say around 50% of championship teams this year will have Vick. Its really not even fair.

On a side note, next years draft is gonna be very interesting. Think about the possible first rounders (not saying I would take all of these guys in the first, but I know some people in my leagues would):

Peyton
Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Vick
Rivers
ADP
CJohnson
Gore
SJax
Hillis
McCoy
Foster
Turer
MJD

I could legitimately see all of those guys going first round. And those are just QB and RB. Going to be very interesting...
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby shawngee03 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 10:13 am

get a QB late as always. out of the 4 guys in the semi's in my main league...only 1 has a top QB(peyton). i traded for Rodgers mid season...only to realize there were Qbs getting close to his production still in FA..and flipped him for Gore(which didnt end up well...but you cant help injuries)

my main mistake was trading Megatron after week 2. wish i has that one back. got worried about my Rbs too early

along w that....the main concept i learned to avoid was going WR-WR in every league. i was behind the RB ball all year.
never again. even if my first rd Rb flops...i still feel more comfortable having him than rolling out ronnie brown every week

its back to RB-RB-Wr for me next year. going back to basics. Rb/WR early. 2 QBs in rounds 7-9. TE rd 10-12. K, def last rds
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby biju » Mon Dec 20, 2010 10:52 am

Here are the errors I recognize I made in 2010:

1. Dropped Bowe after week 5 for Mike Williams (TB). While this was effectively for my WR4 slot and Williams did good, Bowe would have put me as the number one seed. Consequently I'd be in the Championship game in week 16 instead of playing for third place. I need to learn to be more patient.

2. Drafting (or trading for) Randy Moss. With the contract year I assumed the Patriots would be content letting him have a great year and then riding off into the sunset. After seeing the Patriots trade Randy mid-season (and seeing them trade off Richard Seymour) it's obvious that if the front office sees an opportunity to trade a player they have no intention of re-signing after the season they will. I need to keep away from (fantasy relevant) contract year Patriots over 30.

3. I failed to recognize Brandon Lloyd's week 1 game as anything more than an anomaly. I've been a believer in his ability but figured he would never put it together and just lost sight of that. I figure he'll be seriously overrated and overdrafted in 2011, but that only marginally helps me this year.

4. Players I hoped would pan out clouded my judgment on players I needed to pick up. Jerome Harrison, you will forever be known as the wall with no window that kept me from seeing Peyton Hillis.

5. My stubborn attitude to the "new generation" of receivers. I didn't target or even consider drafting the following: DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, or any of the 2010 rookies. It might be officially time to retire the notion that it takes until year 3 for WRs to acclimate to the speed of the NFL. (Yes, I'm aware DeSean Jackson is a 3rd year guy--I just have always believed he relied too much on the long ball and that Kolb wouldn't be able to get it to him.)
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby default01 » Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:14 pm

I only had one major error this year:

Shortly before week 4's Monday night game (after Vick had been injured and when it seemed like Moss was still in NE's plans):

Traded: M. Vick, L. Tomlinson, J. Gaffney
Received: R. Moss, J. Stewart

I needed a receiver and the guys I traded were spare parts that I figured would never start for me anyway. Stewart and Moss both eventually got dropped. As it turned out, adding a receiver wasn't as critical as I thought with the way Wallace and Williams (TB) performed.

I was slow to pick up a couple players that could have helped my team but it's partially an error and partially good competition: Hillis, Lloyd, Tamme
I did have a couple good pickups (even if one led to that terrible trade): Vick, Torain

The most important part that led to a great year: the only round of the draft that I consider a bad pick was Aromashodu in the 9th. There is no other pick that I view as a bust even if a player may have slightly underperformed their position, I had others that greatly outperformed theirs. Even Finley in the 5th, I'm OK with since he was lost due to injury rather than underperformance.
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby Oatsdad » Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:48 pm

My biggest error? Both of my H2H leagues allowed 8 playoff teams - and they're 10-team leagues! 8 playoff in 12-team leagues is silly, and 8/10 is insane. Dunno why I went with those leagues - I guess I figured it'd ensure me a playoff spot no matter what, but given that my worst-EVER team was a 6th-placer, those fears don't make sense.

And the lack of a first-round bye killed me in both leagues. I was 1st in one, 2nd in the other - absolutely crushed in the 1st place league, where I went 12-1 and just dominated.

Until Week 14, which was the perfect storm of a) fantasy flop for my team and b) fantasy success for my opponent.

End of tale? after going 12-1 and winning 12 straight weeks, I lost by 8 points to a 3-10 team! :~(

Lesson learned: stay with 6-playoff team leagues that grant a bye for the top 2 teams. If that'd been the system, I'd be set for the championship in both leagues. Instead, I'm playing for 5th place... %-6
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Re: 2010 Season Errors

Postby moochman » Mon Dec 20, 2010 6:03 pm

biju wrote:Here are the errors I recognize I made in 2010:

2. Drafting (or trading for) Randy Moss. With the contract year I assumed the Patriots would be content letting him have a great year and then riding off into the sunset. After seeing the Patriots trade Randy mid-season (and seeing them trade off Richard Seymour) it's obvious that if the front office sees an opportunity to trade a player they have no intention of re-signing after the season they will. I need to keep away from (fantasy relevant) contract year Patriots over 30.

3. I failed to recognize Brandon Lloyd's week 1 game as anything more than an anomaly. I've been a believer in his ability but figured he would never put it together and just lost sight of that. I figure he'll be seriously overrated and overdrafted in 2011, but that only marginally helps me this year.

4. Players I hoped would pan out clouded my judgment on players I needed to pick up. Jerome Harrison, you will forever be known as the wall with no window that kept me from seeing Peyton Hillis.

5. My stubborn attitude to the "new generation" of receivers. I didn't target or even consider drafting the following: DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie, or any of the 2010 rookies. It might be officially time to retire the notion that it takes until year 3 for WRs to acclimate to the speed of the NFL. (Yes, I'm aware DeSean Jackson is a 3rd year guy--I just have always believed he relied too much on the long ball and that Kolb wouldn't be able to get it to him.)


Ditto. Add to the list abandoning stud TE that I usually take by rnd 4ish and an amazing ability to draft the biggest underachieving RBs and missing playoffs was a given.
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