Wenchtamer's Rookie Big Board - 2011 Pre-Draft

[Wenchtamer]

Hey guys. With the NFL Draft around the corner, I wanted to share with you my pre-draft fantasy rookie big board. I compiled rankings from a few scouting/pre-draft sites I trust, and moved them around a tad based on my own tastes. Positional rankings (with analysis) will follow.

1. AJ Green WR
2. Mark Ingram RB
3. Mikel Leshoure RB
4. Julio Jones WR
5. Ryan Williams RB
6. Shane Vereen RB
7. Jonathan Baldwin WR
8. Randall Cobb WR
9. Taiwan Jones RB
10. Titus Young WR
11. Leonard Hankerson WR
12. Kendall Hunter RB
13. Blaine Gabbert QB
14. Cam Newton QB
15. Torrey Smith WR
16. Kyle Rudolph TE
17. Jerrel Jernigan WR
18. Jacquizz Rodgers RB
19. Jordan Todman RB
20. DeMarco Murray RB
21. Jamie Harper RB
22. Delone Carter RB
23. Tandon Doss WR
24. Greg Little WR
25. Christian Ponder QB
26. Luke Stocker TE
27. Daniel Thomas RB
28. Derrick Locke RB
29. Niles Paul WR
30. Edmund Gates WR
31. Noel Devine RB
32. Johnny White RB
33. Lance Kendricks TE
34. Terrance Toliver WR
35. Austin Pettis WR
36. Roy Helu RB
37. Jake Locker QB
38. Ryan Mallett QB
39. Greg Salas WR
40. DeAndre Brown WR
41. Jordan Cameron TE
42. Vincent Brown WR
43. DJ Williams TE
44. Virgil Green TE
45. Andy Dalton QB
46. Colin Kaepernick QB
47. Ricky Stanzi QB
48. Allen Bradford RB
49. Rob Housler TE
50. Ronald Johnson WR

[Indibuck]

It's all obviously subject to change based on where they are drafted, but that's a pretty good starting list IMHO.


"46. Colin Kaepernick QB"


My pick for sleeper rookie QB... it will be interesting to see where he ends up, but I think this kid has the intangibles to be an eventual star.

[Stelly]

As someone who doesn't follow the college game closely...

THANK YOU!!

[thriftyrocker]

Nice list. Is this non-PPR? I can't imagine Jones going less than 2 in PPR.

[Guru13]

Been waiting for one of these, hopefully some good conversation to follow.

[thriftyrocker]

Making sense of this glut of RBs after RW is the hardest part of 2011, IMO.

6. Shane Vereen RB
9. Taiwan Jones RB
12. Kendall Hunter RB
18. Jacquizz Rodgers RB
19. Jordan Todman RB
20. DeMarco Murray RB
21. Jamie Harper RB
22. Delone Carter RB
27. Daniel Thomas RB
28. Derrick Locke RB
31. Noel Devine RB
32. Johnny White RB
36. Roy Helu RB

I think you could pick any order and give an argument. Really there's no difference in upside between White or Helu and Vereen or Hunter.

You seem really high on Vereen, Jones, and Harper.

Jones vs. Murray is an interesting comparison. What does Jones offer that Murray doesn't other? Maybe a couple hundredths on a 40 time. Maybe the fact that he isn't a known quantity since we've seen so much of Murray.

I think Harper is a little high too. As far as measurables he and Thomas are pretty close IMO, but Thomas was just much more dominant on the field.

[Indibuck]

Nice list. Is this non-PPR? I can't imagine Jones going less than 2 in PPR.

Agree with thrifty here... in a PPR I like both Green and Jones above all others at this point... and unless Leshoure, Ingram, or Williams get drafted into a perfect situation, it will likely stay Green and Jones 1-2 for me in PPRs, regardless of what team drafts the WRs.

[Wenchtamer]

I didn't have a format in mind, so I suppose it is non-PPR.

I think Green is locked in at #1, and Jones/Ingram/Leshoure can go in any order really, with Ryan Williams locked at #5.

There are reports of Ingram having arthritis in his knee which scares me dynasty-wise, but I chose to ignore it for this list. I think we'll know a lot more after the NFL draft, depending on how early he goes. If he slips to the 2nd round and/or Leshoure is drafted ahead of him, that's likely a huge red flag.

[Wenchtamer]

Making sense of this glut of RBs after RW is the hardest part of 2011, IMO.

6. Shane Vereen RB
9. Taiwan Jones RB
12. Kendall Hunter RB
18. Jacquizz Rodgers RB
19. Jordan Todman RB
20. DeMarco Murray RB
21. Jamie Harper RB
22. Delone Carter RB
27. Daniel Thomas RB
28. Derrick Locke RB
31. Noel Devine RB
32. Johnny White RB
36. Roy Helu RB

I think you could pick any order and give an argument. Really there's no difference in upside between White or Helu and Vereen or Hunter.

You seem really high on Vereen, Jones, and Harper.

Jones vs. Murray is an interesting comparison. What does Jones offer that Murray doesn't other? Maybe a couple hundredths on a 40 time. Maybe the fact that he isn't a known quantity since we've seen so much of Murray.

I think Harper is a little high too. As far as measurables he and Thomas are pretty close IMO, but Thomas was just much more dominant on the field.

You are right about that huge cluster of RBs. Different sites have these guys all over the place. That's part of the reason why I decided to compile rankings and get an average.

I do like Shane Vereen. He could be a slower Clinton Portis. He's strong as an ox too; 31 reps on the bench press at the combine. Shows great promise in pass protection which could make him a 3-down back.

Taiwan Jones' value soared after his Pro Day. His name has always been out there as a late-round sleeper but everyone moved him up their boards after his workout, which included a 4.29 40 time. Also he can jump out of a pool, the video's on youtube . I agree it feels weird to rank him in the top 10, but he's one of the few players that everyone has ranked highly.

I like DeMarco Murray too. It seems like he will be pushed into the 2nd round of dynasty drafts. He'll be a great value pick for whoever takes him there.

Harper and Thomas are two guys that are ranked all over the place. They are similar prospects (they even wore the same number!), but I put Harper higher because he's a better receiver and he's faster. Harper can learn to use his size (power) better, but Thomas isn't getting any quicker (without sacrificing size anyway).

[Wenchtamer]

It's all obviously subject to change based on where they are drafted, but that's a pretty good starting list IMHO.


"46. Colin Kaepernick QB"


My pick for sleeper rookie QB... it will be interesting to see where he ends up, but I think this kid has the intangibles to be an eventual star.

Things will definitely change after the draft. Players assured starting gigs will move up, etc. But it's good to analyze the players pre-draft. I think if anything it helps identify value/sleepers if a guy you liked ends up falling a bit in the NFL Draft but goes to a favorable situation.

Re: Kaepernick- It's said that one AFC West team (most likely Oakland, perhaps Denver) has Kaepernick as their #1 rated QB.