I have two competeing offers for the 1.01 rookie pick. Which should I choose?
My Roster
QB Campbell, Jason OAK QB Manning, Eli NYG QB Schaub, Matt HOU QB RB Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB Hillis, Peyton CLE RB Jackson, Fred BUF RB Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB Norwood, Jerious ATL RB Slaton, Steve HOU RB WR Burleson, Nate DET WR Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR Doucet, Early ARI WR Mason, Derrick BAL WR Meachem, Robert NOS WR Roberts, Andre ARI WR Smith, Steve NYG WR Walter, Kevin HOU WR Wayne, Reggie IND WR Welker, Wes NEP WR TE Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE Olsen, Greg CHI TE PK Carpenter, Dan MIA PK DEF Redskins, Washington WAS Def Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def ROOKIE DRAFT PICKS 2011 1.01 1.09 2.03 2.04 2012 1st rd 1st rd 2nd rd 3rd rd
1st Offer I give up - 1.01, 2.03, Fred Jackson, Jerious Norwood I get - Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall, Donald Brown, 2012 2nd rd
2nd Offer I give up - 1.01, Fred Jackson I get - 1.07, Dallas Clark, Bears DEF, 2012 rd 1, 2012 rd 2, 2013 rd 1
I would take either offer by itself, but I can't decide between the two. Maclin and Marshall give me a GREAT WR corps for years to come and I still have draft picks in this years rookie draft and next years to strengthen my RBs. The other pick gives me the best TE in the NFL and 3 first round draft picks next year plus 2 2nds and two 1st rounders in 2013 while preserving my draft this year. Please help me because I am completely stuck here.
OK, if I had to take one, I would take the first deal.
But I would pass on both. In a PPR dynasty league, I consider AJ Green and Julio Jones to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the rookies... both have ENORMOUS upside (think Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald). And like those two, it doesn't matter to me what NFL team drafts them, I still have Green 1 and Jones 2.
Yes I know that there's no such thing as a "sure thing"... but these guys both have the entire package to be dominant fantasy players for the next decade. I'll take a chance on the much higher ceiling of the rookies than the higher-floor but lower ceiling Maclin and company.
Indibuck wrote:OK, if I had to take one, I would take the first deal.
But I would pass on both. In a PPR dynasty league, I consider AJ Green and Julio Jones to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the rookies... both have ENORMOUS upside (think Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald). And like those two, it doesn't matter to me what NFL team drafts them, I still have Green 1 and Jones 2.
Yes I know that there's no such thing as a "sure thing"... but these guys both have the entire package to be dominant fantasy players for the next decade. I'll take a chance on the much higher ceiling of the rookies than the higher-floor but lower ceiling Maclin and company.
WRs bust more than any other position. I believe it something along the lines of 50% success rate.
I've never heard anyone say that Maclin and/or Marshall have "low-ceilings". Especially Marshall. Not to mention that in that trade I am getting Marshall AND Maclin for just one of AJ or Julio. Assuming I even picked them.
Indibuck wrote:OK, if I had to take one, I would take the first deal.
But I would pass on both. In a PPR dynasty league, I consider AJ Green and Julio Jones to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the rookies... both have ENORMOUS upside (think Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald). And like those two, it doesn't matter to me what NFL team drafts them, I still have Green 1 and Jones 2.
Yes I know that there's no such thing as a "sure thing"... but these guys both have the entire package to be dominant fantasy players for the next decade. I'll take a chance on the much higher ceiling of the rookies than the higher-floor but lower ceiling Maclin and company.
WRs bust more than any other position. I believe it something along the lines of 50% success rate.
I've never heard anyone say that Maclin and/or Marshall have "low-ceilings". Especially Marshall. Not to mention that in that trade I am getting Marshall AND Maclin for just one of AJ or Julio. Assuming I even picked them.
How do you figure a "bust rate" on WRs? Based on first round picks?
Marshall and Maclin have lower ceilings in comparison to Green and Jones IMHO. To me, that's what dynasty leagues are all about. Could AJ Green bust? Sure. But he could also be a guy that, in two years, you would laugh at an offer of only Marshall and Maclin for Green.
Indibuck wrote:OK, if I had to take one, I would take the first deal.
But I would pass on both. In a PPR dynasty league, I consider AJ Green and Julio Jones to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the rookies... both have ENORMOUS upside (think Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald). And like those two, it doesn't matter to me what NFL team drafts them, I still have Green 1 and Jones 2.
Yes I know that there's no such thing as a "sure thing"... but these guys both have the entire package to be dominant fantasy players for the next decade. I'll take a chance on the much higher ceiling of the rookies than the higher-floor but lower ceiling Maclin and company.
WRs bust more than any other position. I believe it something along the lines of 50% success rate.
I've never heard anyone say that Maclin and/or Marshall have "low-ceilings". Especially Marshall. Not to mention that in that trade I am getting Marshall AND Maclin for just one of AJ or Julio. Assuming I even picked them.
How do you figure a "bust rate" on WRs? Based on first round picks?
Marshall and Maclin have lower ceilings in comparison to Green and Jones IMHO. To me, that's what dynasty leagues are all about. Could AJ Green bust? Sure. But he could also be a guy that, in two years, you would laugh at an offer of only Marshall and Maclin for Green.
Good luck whichever way you go!
Yes that was based on first round picks. I read an article a few weeks ago that looked at bust probability on a position by position basis. WRs either had the the highest or second highest rate behind QBs. If I can find it I will post it here. It's an interesting article.
Offer #2 is something I would take and run with because I plan on building and not necessarily going for the gold in 2011...
You trade Jackson and (insert rookie here) for 1.07 and an upgrade at DEF this year. More than likely sets you back in 2011, since you are losing a RB and either the top WR/RB in 2011 that you would draft....unless your remaining 1.09 is a good snag. Who knows.
But... next year you have three 1st round and two 2nd round picks...and two 1st rounders the year after? Puts you in a great spot to own this league for 2-3 years in the future...if not the draft itself but the opportunity to trade these picks for established players.
I would take offer #2, but thats just me. I, like the Browns, love trading picks to get more next year.
Offer #2 is something I would take and run with because I plan on building and not necessarily going for the gold in 2011...
You trade Jackson and (insert rookie here) for 1.07 and an upgrade at DEF this year. More than likely sets you back in 2011, since you are losing a RB and either the top WR/RB in 2011 that you would draft....unless your remaining 1.09 is a good snag. Who knows.
But... next year you have three 1st round and two 2nd round picks...and two 1st rounders the year after? Puts you in a great spot to own this league for 2-3 years in the future...if not the draft itself but the opportunity to trade these picks for established players.
I would take offer #2, but thats just me. I, like the Browns, love trading picks to get more next year.
Good luck.
That's what I did. Fantasy owners, much like NFL GM's, severely undervalue future draft picks. I'm probably not going to win it all this year, but I am in a very strong position to dominate the league for several years, as long as I draft decently. Especially considering that the future 1st I got are from owners that have a decent chance of finishing in the lower half next year and the year after.
Ya I like the 2nd offer. You still get the 7th picks, which isn't "amazing" but still no slouch, and set yourself up with Clark, who when healthy is comparable to a #2 WR and you get 2 first round picks next draft and this one. Green could be amazing but he's in a tough position, Julio Jones is the one I'ld probably eye with the first overall pick personally. His situation is perfect, I'd make the 2nd offer and look into moving up to the 1.02 pick with all the extra picks you've gained.
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by danielgreen091 » Tue Apr 26, 2011 7:45 pm 
