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HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

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HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby danielgreen091 » Tue Apr 26, 2011 7:45 pm

12 team PPR dynasty league

I have two competeing offers for the 1.01 rookie pick. Which should I choose?

My Roster

QB
Campbell, Jason OAK QB
Manning, Eli NYG QB
Schaub, Matt HOU QB
RB
Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB
Hillis, Peyton CLE RB
Jackson, Fred BUF RB
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB
Norwood, Jerious ATL RB
Slaton, Steve HOU RB
WR
Burleson, Nate DET WR
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR
Doucet, Early ARI WR
Mason, Derrick BAL WR
Meachem, Robert NOS WR
Roberts, Andre ARI WR
Smith, Steve NYG WR
Walter, Kevin HOU WR
Wayne, Reggie IND WR
Welker, Wes NEP WR
TE
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
Olsen, Greg CHI TE
PK
Carpenter, Dan MIA PK
DEF
Redskins, Washington WAS Def
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
ROOKIE DRAFT PICKS
2011
1.01
1.09
2.03
2.04
2012
1st rd
1st rd
2nd rd
3rd rd

1st Offer
I give up - 1.01, 2.03, Fred Jackson, Jerious Norwood
I get - Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Marshall, Donald Brown, 2012 2nd rd

2nd Offer
I give up - 1.01, Fred Jackson
I get - 1.07, Dallas Clark, Bears DEF, 2012 rd 1, 2012 rd 2, 2013 rd 1

I would take either offer by itself, but I can't decide between the two. Maclin and Marshall give me a GREAT WR corps for years to come and I still have draft picks in this years rookie draft and next years to strengthen my RBs. The other pick gives me the best TE in the NFL and 3 first round draft picks next year plus 2 2nds and two 1st rounders in 2013 while preserving my draft this year. Please help me because I am completely stuck here.
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Re: HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby Indibuck » Tue Apr 26, 2011 10:01 pm

OK, if I had to take one, I would take the first deal.


But I would pass on both. In a PPR dynasty league, I consider AJ Green and Julio Jones to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the rookies... both have ENORMOUS upside (think Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald). And like those two, it doesn't matter to me what NFL team drafts them, I still have Green 1 and Jones 2.

Yes I know that there's no such thing as a "sure thing"... but these guys both have the entire package to be dominant fantasy players for the next decade. I'll take a chance on the much higher ceiling of the rookies than the higher-floor but lower ceiling Maclin and company.
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Re: HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby danielgreen091 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:50 pm

Indibuck wrote:OK, if I had to take one, I would take the first deal.


But I would pass on both. In a PPR dynasty league, I consider AJ Green and Julio Jones to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the rookies... both have ENORMOUS upside (think Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald). And like those two, it doesn't matter to me what NFL team drafts them, I still have Green 1 and Jones 2.

Yes I know that there's no such thing as a "sure thing"... but these guys both have the entire package to be dominant fantasy players for the next decade. I'll take a chance on the much higher ceiling of the rookies than the higher-floor but lower ceiling Maclin and company.

WRs bust more than any other position. I believe it something along the lines of 50% success rate.

I've never heard anyone say that Maclin and/or Marshall have "low-ceilings". Especially Marshall. Not to mention that in that trade I am getting Marshall AND Maclin for just one of AJ or Julio. Assuming I even picked them.
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Re: HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby Indibuck » Wed Apr 27, 2011 6:56 pm

danielgreen091 wrote:
Indibuck wrote:OK, if I had to take one, I would take the first deal.


But I would pass on both. In a PPR dynasty league, I consider AJ Green and Julio Jones to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the rookies... both have ENORMOUS upside (think Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald). And like those two, it doesn't matter to me what NFL team drafts them, I still have Green 1 and Jones 2.

Yes I know that there's no such thing as a "sure thing"... but these guys both have the entire package to be dominant fantasy players for the next decade. I'll take a chance on the much higher ceiling of the rookies than the higher-floor but lower ceiling Maclin and company.

WRs bust more than any other position. I believe it something along the lines of 50% success rate.

I've never heard anyone say that Maclin and/or Marshall have "low-ceilings". Especially Marshall. Not to mention that in that trade I am getting Marshall AND Maclin for just one of AJ or Julio. Assuming I even picked them.


How do you figure a "bust rate" on WRs? Based on first round picks?

Marshall and Maclin have lower ceilings in comparison to Green and Jones IMHO. To me, that's what dynasty leagues are all about. Could AJ Green bust? Sure. But he could also be a guy that, in two years, you would laugh at an offer of only Marshall and Maclin for Green.

Good luck whichever way you go!
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Re: HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby danielgreen091 » Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:12 am

Indibuck wrote:
danielgreen091 wrote:
Indibuck wrote:OK, if I had to take one, I would take the first deal.


But I would pass on both. In a PPR dynasty league, I consider AJ Green and Julio Jones to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the rookies... both have ENORMOUS upside (think Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald). And like those two, it doesn't matter to me what NFL team drafts them, I still have Green 1 and Jones 2.

Yes I know that there's no such thing as a "sure thing"... but these guys both have the entire package to be dominant fantasy players for the next decade. I'll take a chance on the much higher ceiling of the rookies than the higher-floor but lower ceiling Maclin and company.

WRs bust more than any other position. I believe it something along the lines of 50% success rate.

I've never heard anyone say that Maclin and/or Marshall have "low-ceilings". Especially Marshall. Not to mention that in that trade I am getting Marshall AND Maclin for just one of AJ or Julio. Assuming I even picked them.


How do you figure a "bust rate" on WRs? Based on first round picks?

Marshall and Maclin have lower ceilings in comparison to Green and Jones IMHO. To me, that's what dynasty leagues are all about. Could AJ Green bust? Sure. But he could also be a guy that, in two years, you would laugh at an offer of only Marshall and Maclin for Green.

Good luck whichever way you go!

Yes that was based on first round picks. I read an article a few weeks ago that looked at bust probability on a position by position basis. WRs either had the the highest or second highest rate behind QBs. If I can find it I will post it here. It's an interesting article.
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Re: HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby Venom » Fri Apr 29, 2011 1:30 am

Who did you plan on taking 1.01?

Offer #2 is something I would take and run with because I plan on building and not necessarily going for the gold in 2011...

You trade Jackson and (insert rookie here) for 1.07 and an upgrade at DEF this year. More than likely sets you back in 2011, since you are losing a RB and either the top WR/RB in 2011 that you would draft....unless your remaining 1.09 is a good snag. Who knows.

But... next year you have three 1st round and two 2nd round picks...and two 1st rounders the year after? Puts you in a great spot to own this league for 2-3 years in the future...if not the draft itself but the opportunity to trade these picks for established players.

I would take offer #2, but thats just me. I, like the Browns, love trading picks to get more next year. :-b

Good luck.
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Re: HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby danielgreen091 » Fri Apr 29, 2011 12:44 pm

Venom wrote:Who did you plan on taking 1.01?

Offer #2 is something I would take and run with because I plan on building and not necessarily going for the gold in 2011...

You trade Jackson and (insert rookie here) for 1.07 and an upgrade at DEF this year. More than likely sets you back in 2011, since you are losing a RB and either the top WR/RB in 2011 that you would draft....unless your remaining 1.09 is a good snag. Who knows.

But... next year you have three 1st round and two 2nd round picks...and two 1st rounders the year after? Puts you in a great spot to own this league for 2-3 years in the future...if not the draft itself but the opportunity to trade these picks for established players.

I would take offer #2, but thats just me. I, like the Browns, love trading picks to get more next year. :-b

Good luck.

That's what I did. Fantasy owners, much like NFL GM's, severely undervalue future draft picks. I'm probably not going to win it all this year, but I am in a very strong position to dominate the league for several years, as long as I draft decently. Especially considering that the future 1st I got are from owners that have a decent chance of finishing in the lower half next year and the year after.
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Re: HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby DemonDeacon » Sun May 01, 2011 6:46 pm

Ya I like the 2nd offer. You still get the 7th picks, which isn't "amazing" but still no slouch, and set yourself up with Clark, who when healthy is comparable to a #2 WR and you get 2 first round picks next draft and this one. Green could be amazing but he's in a tough position, Julio Jones is the one I'ld probably eye with the first overall pick personally. His situation is perfect, I'd make the 2nd offer and look into moving up to the 1.02 pick with all the extra picks you've gained.
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Re: HUGE dynasty trade offers. Which one should I take? WHIR

Postby Can't Lose » Sun May 08, 2011 7:26 pm

Yeah, I think Offer #2 was the best choice. You helped yourself in the long-term and got better at Tight-End and Defense in the short-term.
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