Your Stock is Rising #2

[DraftDodger]

If things in the NFL continue as they're going, but we do get a full 2011 season, a lot of players (read: most of them) aren't going to be physically and mentally prepared to take the field. Think how poorly holdouts usually do, in terms of injuries and poor performances. Of course, with all the players holding out, the starters are taking equal risks, so what's the fantasy impact?

I submit that #2's, the unsung back-ups and third down specialists, are going to have a banner season. A lot of first and second round fantasy players are likely to bust, paving the way for capable bench warmers to have breakout fantasy seasons. Is it ironic that players like Brady, Manning, and Brees who are figureheading the lawsuit also have the most to lose if their offensive lines don't get significant practice time in a coached environment? Once the money is agreed on, those franchise guys are going to step onto the field, but what are they getting themselves into? This season threatens to bring on more injuries than ever before, as unprepared players try to play a full season with virtually no practice (as it stands, the chances of a settlement before June appears unlikely).

What this means is that players who get to ride the bench for a month or two will have a physical (and probably psychological) advantage. When their numbers are called, they'll be much more ready to play than the starters will have been.

What I think this will mean (if things aren't settled soon):

* Players already considered injury risks should be avoided even more, and will fall in good drafts.

* Handcuffs become more important than ever.

* Talented #2's rise in value over lower-end starters.

* Starters who have proven tough get an edge over higher stat guys who are more injury prone.

* This isn't the year to gamble on rookie starters, who may not have the dominant support that their teammates would have provided with a full off-season of practice.

I'm sure people will think of more ways in which fantasy players will be impacted, but I foresee us having to think risk/reward with almost every draft pick.

[Devil Doc]

I can see your point, but don't entirely agree. Its almost like your insuating that the Top Tier players are the only ones going to be affected by this. Nothing is ever predictable in fantasy sports and the NFL as we all know to well...hell look at McFadden last year, came out of no where and had finally lived up to his potential. No doubt players are going to be affected by this, to me and i think someone mentioned it before, and I agree with, the rookies. Talk about an information over load, all the things they'd be normally working on, and getting to know the ins and outs of each play, man that's gonna be one small window when/if the league kicks up again. I think you could even take this argument a step further...what teams would be effected most. How many players are doing off season work outs AS A TEAM? Chemistry plays a larger part then I think people give credit to. Not only will we be surprised on what DraftDodger (where is that from BTW) had mentioned, but we may also be surprised on who ends up in the Super Bowl....well at least from the AFC, cause we all know the Packers will be back again.

[Kareighuis]

I debated something similar to this, but I can't see the backups somehow getting an advantage over the starters. If there is an effect of not having access to the equipment, training facility and coaching staff to be ready for the season, all players will be affected. Starter gets cramp, goes to the bench, backup comes in- and cramps a few plays later. Some players had significant bonuses based on their offseason presence at training facilities, while others were rehabbing when they got cut off from the team.

I do agree, though, that the compressed window to get players playing as a unit and any new schemes (especially important with new coaches and coordinators) will make rookies really unappealing this season.

[mzu]

Really depends on when the lockout ends...if its this week then I don't see any player being effected. If it ends anytime in August then I definitely agree.