Who is the #4 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts? You are voting on who will have the best fantasy football production in the NFL over the next 4 or 5 years with the team on which the player was just drafted, NOT who will have the best year in 2011. Assume standard scoring (1 pt. per 10 yards rushing / receiving, and no PPR) Also please assume that you have a balanced roster and don't have a great specific need for a QB, WR, etc.
Feel free to discuss the pros and cons of these players - this could be helpful for some and generate some good discussion. If you'd like to vote for a player NOT on this list, then please vote "other" and make a post to discuss the player. This will serve as a write-in vote for that player.
Went Ryan Williams both here and in my dynasty draft where I had the 1.04 and the draft started Ingram, Green, Jones.
I expect this pick to be spread out unlike the last two polls, and there's logic behind Leshoure and Thomas. In my opinion...
Danial Thomas isn't a drop-in starter. Yes, he's the only back that's NFL starter caliber on their roster now, but I firmly believe they bring in a veteran. Maybe they bring back Ricky or Ronnie, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them bring in a complimentary back like Darren Sproles to take 3rd downs or maybe every third series.
Mikel Leshoure is talented but landed himself in a space where he'll be in a split. The Lions aren't going to put Best in a backup role and probably have him working "between the 20s", letting Leshoure handle short yardage and goal line. To me this situation reads as RBBC at it's worst. I don't see Best as unreliable...yet. This was his second year of injury (dating back to college) so there is a little concern.
Ryan Williams is also in a situation where it's a crowded backfield but I'm sure the Cardinals do not envision Hightower (currently a FA) as being a lead back and Beanie had a major down year last year (due to injury again) with a 3.4 YPC for a paltry 397 yards and 2 TDs. It's the situation I see Daniel Thomas in before the season begins, but I prefer Williams' running instincts more.
Went Ryan Williams. I feel they wont re-sign Hightower and use him as the replacement. That should give him a decent amount of carries to prove himself. The real problem is the Cardinals oline. Alot of people blame the RB's but where are they going to run when there is no hole.
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Went LeShoure- Read somewhere they intend to use Best as the "get the lead" back and LeShoure as the "keep the lead" back. Add in that I don't believe in Best. If things hit right (Best goes down, Stafford stays upright), LeShoure could be looking at a grand majority of carries on a very strong (explosive?) offense. Liked Ryan Williams better pre-draft, but the o-line, QB and WR2 problems weren't resolved. Maybe they will be in FA, but that still doesn't address his injury-plagued season in college last year or Wells' presence, though he does have injuries of his own.
The rest- I like Little @#4 in PPR (this aint) and Daniel Thomas deserves consideration based on production last year and likely dominant role in teams backfield. Oh, and was once a QB- could come in handy on the Miami Wildcats. Gave no thought at all to Baldwin here.
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Went with Thomas, based on where he's at. Feel like Leshoure is a better back in a better offense, but I think Thomas will actually do well with the Dolphins bringing in a guy like Sproles, no need to give a rookie 300 carries right off the bat. Best is too talented to just let Leshoure take too many carries, and if Stafford goes down again for some reason (Jeff Backus, anybody?) their offense will stall. Again. Of course if I was managing a team that needed WRs badly I would take a very close look at Little..