Who is the #7 pick in rookie dynasty league drafts? You are voting on who will have the best fantasy football production in the NFL over the next 4 or 5 years with the team on which the player was just drafted, NOT who will have the best year in 2011. Assume standard scoring (1 pt. per 10 yards rushing / receiving, and no PPR) Also please assume that you have a balanced roster and don't have a great specific need for a QB, WR, etc.
Feel free to discuss the pros and cons of these players - this could be helpful for some and generate some good discussion. If you'd like to vote for a player NOT on this list, then please vote "other" and make a post to discuss the player. This will serve as a write-in vote for that player.
Little- Steps into team with clear need where he's clearly the best at his position. Vereen is a solid 2nd choice, but the platoon at RB in NE throws a damper on things.
Baldwin has a number of strikes against him- 1) Cassel is QB; 2) team's #2; 3) run-first team; 4) character issues- replaying college-end tirade where he threw team under bus last year at Pitt won't be tolerated by HC Haley, who's gotten into shouting matches with players like Kurt Warner.
None of that even addresses whether he even has the skills to produce in the NFL. I wouldn't even bother drafting him in the 3rd, if he somehow fell there.
I start to become a contrarian on Baldwin about early/mid 2nd. In non-PPR, his upside is a lot more appealing than the other WRs past Little. Even though I don't like his game, he has some Vincent Jackson in him, and could be that type of player. K makes a good point about Haley, and I think that's the biggest concern. There's already talk of a "tough love" approach towards Baldwin which, based on Haley's track record, I don't think will work.
I really liked Little when he was a possible 4th round pick in the NFL and 2nd round sleeper in fantasy. Now that he's the 3rd WR off the board and expected to contribute as a WR1 right off the bad, I think there's risk you have to acknowledge. He switched back and forth between RB and WR in college - which could be a plus for RAC stats - but alongside his 1 year suspension is a big negative to experience. Also, you can't knock Baldwin's attitude without admitting Little was both suspended and not honest during draft vetting about his part in being suspended. I'll take the risk in PPR, but without PPR, I'd much rather trade the pick.
If the question is who will have the best fantasy football production over a 4 year window, it could very well be Newton. I may not be sold on him as an NFL QB, but if you look at what Tebow did as far as fantasy production last year, it's easy to see Newton rack up stats for a few years while he tries to figure things out. One or two of the Vereens or Alex Greens or Powells or Hunters will be more valuable assets in a year or two but I think it's pretty impossible to say at this point which will hit.
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