The Lockout, the End, and how it really affected things

[aaawall91]

The lockout seems to be coming to an end soon, I expect football on schedule, that's all really though. And I want to toss around some ideas on how it effects Dynasty leagues and non-idp in mind, but many thoughts apply to redrafts/idp and real life


1. All rookies are behind a lot. For me this means even less than usual rookies on the field. This means less opportunities for them to display what they have, stand out, earn trust, and secure a job or a role on the team. What this means to me is most rookies will be a good buy low next year, as we will see less given opportunities to shine and thus most will come at a cheaper rate after the season. Last year from the rookies we saw (looking at mainly rounds 1 and 2) Dez, Bradford, Best, Williams, Starks*, Blount are the rookies who in my mind secured their starting spot as a given entering this coming season. (*The rule applies in theory despite Grant returning, though I think Grant will be the main guy). The rest of those players value either stayed the same or dropped, sometimes off the radar completely. I think this season even less rookies will be able to display enough to secure a starting spot going into next season.
That's Why I'm putting all rookie draft picks on a trade away basis. Most of those picks, will be cheaper for you to trade for next year. If you don't love anyone at your spot, don't hesitate to trade it away, as long as you get fair value. Also, this doesn't apply as much to elite prospects, who are always a must take for ex. A.J. Green this season. Use at your discretion on who else will secure those spots.

2. I know it's early to think about, but next year (2012) draft picks are again a trade away unless it's an elite prospect or a player you think will secure a starting spot. Here is why...
Coaches may not to get to see the rookies first hand and in practice ect until the season starts. Even with the looming lockout ending, It's my understanding via profootballtalk.com (despite the agony it is to read what they say other than the actual information) that it won't necessarily mean agree in person and on paper starts a long process through courts, and all kinds of hoops, which means there could be a lockout lag possible (can't imagine they'd let them practice when the CBA isn't final final).
This means coaches wont get the proper look at the rookies this year, and many (plenty with talent) will flood into the crop of 2012 rookies and will only raise more question marks as well as fewer roster spots as coaches try and evaluate this new talent now that they have time. Too much talent to evaluate, spots will be limited, but enough talent will get evaluated this year to not push this trend into 2013

3. With possibility of missing training camp and more RBs will have less yards on their legs, most top RBs skip most of off-season any ways to keep legs fresh and to not burn out, Rbs have such a short shelf life.
I think this adds a little plus to RBs both short term in long term. Short term, I Expect times RBs burn out to come a bit later than usual (with exception of veteran backs who skip most of OTAs, Preseason games, etc), So don't be scared of the 370 carries curse or whatever your fancy is from the prior season, that's canceled out by this IMO.

4. More injuries.
Less organized stuff, guys get lazy. If you aren't working out than start going into games not fully in shape against some guys who did keep in shape, you will get hurt. It happens ever year, players pull groins or hurt this or that because there bodies aren't used to the work and it gets strained.
While the obvious thought here is "boost the guys who are working out" and yeah thats true, but let's be honest...no one can keep track of who is or isnt, if you can I applaud you, I'm sure there are a couple of you.
My take: as a whole..Boost top WRs. WRs is a position that takes time (3 years or more at times), a work ethic, physical attributes, and so much more. They aren't the one's who I will worry about getting injured. Also, down grade the rest of the lower WRs for the most part because of this. Draft your WRs early and often.
as a whole...Boost lower end RBs. Draft picks, rookie free agents, training camp fodder, everyone. More injuries than any NFL season guaranteed, and you see how far teams get sometimes with RBs. 6 or 7 in a season isn't unheard of. And you would be surprised where teams find stars who are given the opportunity.

5. Dumbed down. QBs may not grasp new playbooks, or didnt progress with the last one must in the offseason, may not be working out with WRs, losing chemistry possibly, teams may adopt a simple playbook to get everyone on the same page if lots of training camp is missed. What is the simplest thing in the offensive playbook? Run.
Boost....RB value as a whole. We may see off the chart total attempts and yardage numbers this year if enough teams running games get hot in those starting few games given all the opportunity they may be given.

Also, take this into mind, most injuries possibly ever, mixed with some of the highest rushing totals we've seen...it is going to be a scary and crazy year in fantasy football and the waiver wire will have prospects galore. The best fantasy teams more than ever will make their money in the Waiver wire and in free agency.

Also, taking that in mind... recommend to all your leagues to boost roster sizes by I'd say 5. (Do we have 40 yet in any given dynasty?)


Have a few more that just can't come to mind right now.

[Guru13]

I think rookies are definitely behind, but I think by the time September rolls around (and particularly around mid-season) they'll be mostly up to speed. QBs will definitely struggle - and that, to me, is interesting since we could hypothetically have 6 rookies starting for NFL teams this season, but aside from the QBs I'm not downgrading the rookies as much as everyone else is. Their are still a few RBs and WRs in good situations that could produce, particularly the elite talents and I've always sorta thought that really talented players will prevail over others even if it is midseason when things start to click.

We could definitely see a ton of injuries this year though

[stomperrob]

Regarding rookies - it's really gonna hurt the undrafted rookies this season - with teams trying to sign the drafted rookies and all the pending action in the free agent market, undrafted rookies are gonna have a hard time catching on with a team.

[WaCougMBS]

I think rookies are definitely behind, but I think by the time September rolls around (and particularly around mid-season) they'll be mostly up to speed. QBs will definitely struggle - and that, to me, is interesting since we could hypothetically have 6 rookies starting for NFL teams this season, but aside from the QBs I'm not downgrading the rookies as much as everyone else is. Their are still a few RBs and WRs in good situations that could produce, particularly the elite talents and I've always sorta thought that really talented players will prevail over others even if it is midseason when things start to click.

I tend to agree with this - at the skill positions (particularly RB), I think skill and opportunity trump some of these other factors in the long run for 2011 and beyond. I certainly won't feel good about QBs or TEs, but I really wouldn't anyway considering both the specific crop and the fact that they're rookies after all. Will it make me even less likely to select AJ Green or Julio Jones in a redraft league? Absolutely. Will I pass on RBs with the upside of Thomas, Ingram and Co. in the middle rounds when it's between them or somewhat compromised vets in various time share situations? I highly doubt it.

[moochman]

Interesting angle, aawall. I can see all positions impacted by the lack of organized practices. There will be more need to get starters PT in preseason to get them in shape so rookies won't get as many reps to prove themselves reliable. Earning trust is huge, football coaches are reluctant to take chances and all the best uber talented will probably not have enough opportunity to show their wares. This will affect all positions, and rooks and vets. Sadly there could be further emphasis on RBBC to help ease players into game shape. Fear it could become even more of a fixture.
Not sure that it will have much impact on dynasty drafting, as those league are looking to the future and will be less likely to be fooled by this year's rookies lack of production due to a jacked-up season. Still, there are some born everyday, so your strategy may work.
I am very concerned over certain types of injuries that could see significant increase this season. Its easy to get up to speed with running and lifting, but the stretching and agility drills that keep muscles from snapping take more dedication and coaching. Not sure enough time will be available prior to the start of the season for players to be limber enough for what they will ask of their bodies.
I do like the chances for elite talent to rise to the top. Rookies with so little wear and tear and much better recovery times could blow up as their raw speed/cutting/play-making ability could make them seem a step faster than many vets still searching for their legs. As football always does, it will present a very interesting (and hopfully pleasureable) watching experience.

[Munboy]

If I had to point to one single player the lockout hurt the most, it would be Cam Newton. He has the athletic talent to be effective from time to time, but making the jump from an option QB to an under center NFL QB will take time. The job would be his if this were a normal season. As it is, I think Clausen will start the season and Newton will jump in 5-7 games into the season...Unless Clausen does a complete 180.

[moochman]

Could extended off season provide fountain of youth, or denial stream, for Brett Farve? Maybe no football has meant nobody begging him to return and he misses attention. Gil Brandt seems to think princess gray beard has game left.
http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/07/06/brandt- ... to-retire/

“I don’t think that you make an inquiry to work out somebody or help somebody develop as a player in a coaching way if you don’t have something in your mind about coming back to play,” Brandt said. “And then I think he probably looks around the league, and there’s a lot of what ifs. What if Seattle doesn’t sign (Matt) Hasselback and (offensive coordinator) Darrell Bevell, who was his coach at both Green Bay and at Minneapolis, is there.

“They need somebody to fill that spot, I think Favre is enough of a competitor that if somebody said to him, ‘Come on, come on in, we can use you. You might not be a starter,’ I think he would come out of his retirement.”

So there are some negatives about resolving the lock out.
I have serious doubts that Farve would have any intention to return. We would have heard from him by now.