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@ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby Sex Panther » Sat Jul 02, 2011 9:55 am

Hello cafe, football should be back soon (I hope), stupid lockout and no player movement is making it hard to gauge the coming season...

That said, depending on what happens once the lockout is lifted and trades/free agency can happen, 2 guys that I'm very curious about come 2011 draft day are...

Larry Fitzgerald - inarguably one of the most taleneted WR's in the NFL, size, speed, hands, route running - he is the whole package. He is an ELITE WR, and the term ELITE often gets overused - IMO it's a very small fraternity - Fitz, AJ, Megatron, and Roddy - and that's about it, arguements can be made for other guys, but that top tier is small.

Fitz managed to put up 90 catches, over 1100 yards, and 6 TD in a down (for him) year in 2010 w/ an absolute mess at QB.

He's still in the prime of his career, plays in a horrendous division, the Cardinals have a pretty decent coaching staff, and absolutely must be looking for an answer at QB - IMO - Kolb or McNabb have to be at the top of their list.

If Arizona can land a 1/2 way competent QB, Fitz should rebound big time and be an insane value/steal come draft day.

The 2nd guy is DeAngelo Williams - IMO there is no way he resigns with Carolina... What if he lands on a squad w/ a decent to elite offense & a real QB to keep defenses honest? He is still a relatively young guys w/ low milage & all the tools to excell at his position. IMO, if the Panthers were playing for anything last year, he would not have gone on IR (I'm no doctor, I have no inside info on this, just a gut feeling).

Imagine him on say, New England (RB carosel has consistently been in top 10 league wide, what could a stud back there do?)... or Indianapolis (Brown has been a major bust, Addai is a FA I believe, Colts need a running game)... or Green Bay (Grant coming back from major injury, Starks still a bit of a ? IMO - absolutely loaded offense)... or Atlanta (A Turner/Williams tandem w/ the talent on that offense would be scary - in win now mode), or Dallas (tons of talent still there), or Washington (Shanny has a track record even though he drives FF owners nuts)

What happens if DWill lands on a squad that can actually throw the ball?

Thoughts on these 2, very intiguing, talented, and dependent upon what their teams do at other positions guys come draft day?
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby scottaa1 » Sat Jul 02, 2011 12:12 pm

Sex Panther wrote:
If Arizona can land a 1/2 way competent QB, Fitz should rebound big time and be an insane value/steal come draft day.


I think for someone to be a value/steal they have to fall to later rounds, and I don't see Fitzie falling anywhere. He's probably gone second round in many leagues.
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby m16a » Sat Jul 02, 2011 12:25 pm

scottaa1 wrote:
Sex Panther wrote:
If Arizona can land a 1/2 way competent QB, Fitz should rebound big time and be an insane value/steal come draft day.


I think for someone to be a value/steal they have to fall to later rounds, and I don't see Fitzie falling anywhere. He's probably gone second round in many leagues.


Scott is correct. Fitz went at 2.04 in the Cafe's Extremely Early Mock Draft. That isn't much drop and he should probably be going mid second round in most, if not all drafts. If you're looking for guys that might drop a round or two due to situation, Williams and Grant are two that come to mind. While I wouldn't do it, if you are feeling crazy and like risks, Britt is a guy who might be worth a flyer. He's got the legal trouble, but if he plays, he has huge talent. He's gonna drop like a brick cause of his boneheadedness off the field. HIGH risk, high reward.
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby LS2throwed » Sat Jul 02, 2011 12:50 pm

1 guy jumps out at me when I immediately think of this, and it's Mathew Stafford.


I'm only in 1 redraft/money league now, and I know for sure he'll be on my team. As long as you can pair him with a solid/consistent QB along side him the upside your gonna get from him is QB1 status. I think his floor, by playing 16 games is 3700 yards, 24 TD's, 14 INT's. Then combined the fact that he has Calvin Johnson who is good for 15 TD's a season, and a couple multi TD games, I see Stafford having 3-4 weeks where he throws 3 or more TD's and explodes.


I don't think it's out of the question to think he can reach 4k yards and 25+ TD's either, but for the value of where you get him in the draft I can get on board with it. If you wait on a QB and get stronger at other positions, he's the perfect value pick where you can swing for the fence without much risk. I'm not drafting safe at this point in the draft anyway, worst case you sit on him and he's off to a hot start you can move him for whatever top 5 QB started slow in September in a package deal.
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby Guru13 » Sat Jul 02, 2011 3:02 pm

I drafted Deangelo Williams in the 7th of a Cafe dynasty just about a week ago. To me that's absurd, had I not needed WRs I would have drafted him a round or 2 earlier; pretty much regardless of where he goes he's a lock for good RB2 likely RB1 numbers barring injury. Even if he goes back to Carolina.
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby TexasBornCowboysFan » Sat Jul 02, 2011 11:58 pm

Breaston- he's just waiting on a QB. Breaston is a free agent likely to stay in Arizona but he could move to a team with a better QB.

Watson- his career has seen a resurgence in Cleveland. If his TD total increases he could be in the top 10. He's just another reason to wait on drafting a TE.

Floyd- a free agent and more valuable if he moves to a team without Vincent Jackson and Gates.

Harvin- claims he has found the cure to his headaches. The possible rookie starting QB is better suited for Harvin's routes than Sidney's.

I agree on Williams he could well be the steal of the draft.
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby Kareighuis » Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:40 am

Sex Panther wrote:Larry Fitzgerald - inarguably one of the most taleneted WR's in the NFL, size, speed, hands, route running - he is the whole package. He is an ELITE WR, and the term ELITE often gets overused - IMO it's a very small fraternity - Fitz, AJ, Megatron, and Roddy - and that's about it, arguements can be made for other guys, but that top tier is small.

Fitz managed to put up 90 catches, over 1100 yards, and 6 TD in a down (for him) year in 2010 w/ an absolute mess at QB.

He's still in the prime of his career, plays in a horrendous division, the Cardinals have a pretty decent coaching staff, and absolutely must be looking for an answer at QB - IMO - Kolb or McNabb have to be at the top of their list.

If Arizona can land a 1/2 way competent QB, Fitz should rebound big time and be an insane value/steal come draft day.


Fitz doesn't provide much value in redrafts, value-wise. Like m16 said, he's not going that far off from where he'd be going if he had a better QB. I'm more interested in how far his value has dropped in dynasties. Given the lack of talent around him, I could see an owner willing to discuss trading, or even outright making him available for trade. You wouldn't get him cheap, but the fact that you could get him is a coup. On the flip side, this is Fitz's last year on his contract and he can't be franchised ,as I recall. So, if he doesn't believe the team has improved enough, he can pull a LeBron and leave in 2012. The alternative seems to be sticking around and getting paid a fair compensation, which would eat up the cap space ARI would use to get the help they need around Fitz.

Sex Panther wrote:The 2nd guy is DeAngelo Williams - IMO there is no way he resigns with Carolina... What if he lands on a squad w/ a decent to elite offense & a real QB to keep defenses honest? He is still a relatively young guys w/ low milage & all the tools to excell at his position. IMO, if the Panthers were playing for anything last year, he would not have gone on IR (I'm no doctor, I have no inside info on this, just a gut feeling).

Imagine him on say, New England (RB carosel has consistently been in top 10 league wide, what could a stud back there do?)... or Indianapolis (Brown has been a major bust, Addai is a FA I believe, Colts need a running game)... or Green Bay (Grant coming back from major injury, Starks still a bit of a ? IMO - absolutely loaded offense)... or Atlanta (A Turner/Williams tandem w/ the talent on that offense would be scary - in win now mode), or Dallas (tons of talent still there), or Washington (Shanny has a track record even though he drives FF owners nuts)

What happens if DWill lands on a squad that can actually throw the ball?

I agree about DWill being a value, but I can't see alot of those teams making a play for him-
NE- just spent 2 picks on rookies. NE seems well enough run that they won't spend any available cap space to shore up a position with little need rather than focus on the bigger problem, WR help for Welker and Branch.
Indy- grabbed Delone Carter. At least solves short-yardage problems. Could be more than that. Addai is a FA but knows the system and has been productive. D Brown has underperformed expectations. The opportunity is there, but for years now, Indy has been bumping up against the cap, as much of their money is tied up in Peyton, Mathis and Freeney. Many of their productive players are still on their (cheap) rookie deals. They need to hit on their draft selections to maintain competitiveness. The need is there, the money isn't.
GB- Again, they got a rook. Grant's contract ends after this season. There seems to be a chance that, at some point this season, they'll want to see how Green and Starks would do carrying the load. GB is an unusual team, actually being owned by the public. So, they don't have some Snyder/Jones owner, who'd throw gobs of money into FA. It's a fairy tale to imagine DWill in GB.
Atlanta- another fairy tale. Turner has the RB spot locked down, and the rookie Rodgers will handle 3rd down and possibly get some play at the slot.
Dallas- they grabbed the rookie Murray with the believed intent of pairing him with Felix. Barber is constantly rumored to be on the chopping block- not because of his declined production, but because of the money he's owed. They'd rather plow the 5mill into bigger team needs (various defensive) then the overstocked RB spot. Another team facing cap issues.
Washington- has merit need wise, but Shanahan has a history of getting production from late RB picks. Shanahan has long been a Torrain fan, and Redskins moved up for rookie Helu. I don't know their cap situation, but this team is undisciplined enough that it wouldn't surprise me if it's a complete mess this year and in coming years. Probably couldn't afford DWill.

What you're seeing is how FA has been affected by going after the draft. Alot of teams with needs have addressed them already.

Other than Denver, other viable targets for DWill from a need+possible cap space perspective-
CIN- Benson FA, FO and coaching staff rumored to believe they don't think Scott can handle primary role
KC- Charles is great, but team is dedicated to a strong running game. With Cassel, wouldn't you? Jones has broken down at the end of the season 2 years in a row.
MIA- Depends on how much they want to commit money-wise to the RB spot. Rumored to be hot for DWill before lockout forced them to address need in draft. Still want another RB, and not necessarily looking for a complimentary back to rook Thomas.
NYG- Jacobs is wearing down, despite heavy usage in 2010. Bradshaw a FA and multiple injuries create possibility they won't resign him.
StL- A bit out there, but SJax is wearing down, and team has made repeated comments about getting him help and the general piss-poor RB depth.
SEA- I'm not a Lynch believer. Seems there's Probably little to no chance.
TB- Depends on what they think of Blount. Only drafted a 6th round rook back. Carnell a FA and team has targeted a 3rd down back at a minimum. Little chance, it seems.
TEN- more lockout/contract related. Chris Johnson has been heavily rumored to want a record-setting contract and has made clear he'll hold out to get it. Despite this, rumors say team holds the cards and won't cave to his demands. Signing DWill is a great way to show they mean business. Likelihood goes up as holdout becomes more likely.
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby daullaz » Sun Jul 03, 2011 12:09 pm

Tim Tebow - He showed last season (albeit in a small sample size) what he can do with the starting job. If he wins it, he could add 10 rushing TDs to mediocre passing stats and still be a fantasy force. I'll gamble on that kind of upside at the end of the draft.

Jonathan Stewart - Fourth-round pick now, but if DeAngelo truly is gone, that ADP should rise. I saw a great stat where Stewart is a beast when he manages to get 15-plus carries in a game (i.e., when DeAngelo is out), averaging something like 5.3 yards per carry. If he stays healthy, he could be a top-10 guy.

There are several more guys, but these two stand out as the value/upside champs to me right now.
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby moochman » Sun Jul 03, 2011 4:26 pm

LS2throwed wrote:1 guy jumps out at me when I immediately think of this, and it's Mathew Stafford.

As long as you can pair him with a solid/consistent QB along side him the upside your gonna get from him is QB1 status. I think his floor, by playing 16 games is 3700 yards, 24 TD's, 14 INT's.



Key statement there. You absolutely have to have another QB who can carry your team should Stafford get hurt again. I have no faith at all in his ability to stay healthy, given his fragile history, but his upside is tremendous were he able to stay on the field.
I like Mark Clayton returning from injury to be a very good value pick later in the draft. He has great chemistry with Bradford and should be able to step right back into a trusted role as the talented, underperforming WRs they've amassed sort themselves out.
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Re: @ guys that could be absolute draft day steals IMO...

Postby LMack » Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:41 am

I'm skeptical about Larry as a draft day steal.

As far as Fitzgerald goes, if (when) Arizona lands a QB there will be so much buzz about the move that Fitzgerald's QB woes of last year will be erased quickly. I don't see him slipping in drafts because a big deal will be made about any offensive improvement for the Cardinals and their star wideout.
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