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MJD's dynasty value

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MJD's dynasty value

Postby Kareighuis » Sun Jul 03, 2011 8:54 am

I've made a number of inquiries into acquiring MJD because I consider him a dynasty buy-low. I've emphasized his injuries, mileage, lack of a passing game to give the offense balance, all sorts of stuff.

But, no luck. Owners emphasize the fact he's one of the few bellcows out there and believe his injury concerns are overstated. The PPR leaguers emphasize his role in the passing game. Some point to the rookie QB, who'd look to short throws like the RB out of the backfield if he became a starter.

Am I valuing MJD too low, or is he really that valuable?
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby m16a » Sun Jul 03, 2011 11:09 am

It looks to me like you are valuing him low. The injury concerns are overblown honestly. MJD has missed three games in his career since '06. One off those was '07 when I believe Taylor was still the lead RB for them. He's missed 2 games since becoming the full time starter in '09 and has, like you said, been the workhorse. I think he'll wear down like any RB does, but not for at least 2-3 more years (28-29years range). 600+ carries in two years is something we as fantasy owners love to see in an RB. He's got the talent to be top five, and I think he should finish there. He gets some more value in PPR like you mentioned. You're definitely shooting too low with him.
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby WaCougMBS » Sun Jul 03, 2011 1:49 pm

Agreed that you're probably valuing him too low (something I've certainly done towards the end of last year and in this offseason as well, but I'm starting to come around). I think at this point that unless you're playing up those factors as mitigating reasons as to why an MJD owner should overvalue Jennings and need/want him as a handcuff, I don't think you're going to have too much luck with the average dynasty owner and beyond. At 26 years old and with the solid history of playing in almost every game and being the main man in a running game that continues to excel with him in the lead, coupled with the fact that he plays in a division that shouldn't be overlooked for it's historically crappy run defense, I think he's more valuable still than most people will give him credit for being. Add in that it's PPR and I think that it's a tough sell indeed. Could he break down and/or only have 2 "good" years left? Certainly, he's an NFL RB afterall. But is that really likely given the track record, etc.? I really don't think so.

What kind of inquiries/offers have you made? Has his owner responded with a lack of interest in general or is he more responding like he's open but feels like he's currently being "lowballed"? :-?
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby bungle613 » Mon Jul 04, 2011 1:29 pm

While he may not be a top 5 pick anymore he is not that far off. Serious injury concerns and a quality back up add to the potential devaluing of him but you won't get him for less than fair value and to me that is at least a player ranked in the top 15. You could try a package and deal a couple top 20-30 guys.

I was stunned when you made the offer of him to me last year. I had to relook at the deal to make sure I was reading it right and then jumped.

I would look to go the other route and look at a JStew as you can get him fairly cheap. I got him for Eli Manning late last year in a dynasty.
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby Kareighuis » Mon Jul 04, 2011 1:42 pm

WaCougMBS wrote:What kind of inquiries/offers have you made? Has his owner responded with a lack of interest in general or is he more responding like he's open but feels like he's currently being "lowballed"? :-?

Owners didn't make MJD available, but I asked anyways. League starts 0-2 RB in a non-PPR, team lacks RB depth- only MJD, Jacobs and McKnight rostered. Strong WRs- DeSean, Jennings, Marshall, Welker, start 3-5.
Spun Turner's value hard, offering a package with 2.1 for MJD. Response didn't so much sound like they though they were being low-balled as that they believed it wasn't equal value. Sounded like they thought the offer was about 70% of the way- though that might be a function of the team's lack of depth and league's short rosters, only 20 spots.

The second one is a keeper league with complicated rules- either follow the standard keeper rules for a max of three players or keep a player drafted in the 1st round last year. I'm figuring MJD won't be there for me at 1.10, and offering Starks, who can be kept for a 14th rounder.

bungle613 wrote:While he may not be a top 5 pick anymore he is not that far off. Serious injury concerns and a quality back up add to the potential devaluing of him but you won't get him for less than fair value and to me that is at least a player ranked in the top 15. You could try a package and deal a couple top 20-30 guys.

I was stunned when you made the offer of him to me last year. I had to relook at the deal to make sure I was reading it right and then jumped.

I would look to go the other route and look at a JStew as you can get him fairly cheap. I got him for Eli Manning late last year in a dynasty.

Given you think a top 15 deal could do it, what do you think of the offer above of Turner+2.1 for MJD?

I honestly don't recall offering MJD to anyone last year. I can't believe someone shipped off JStew for Eli last year in a dynasty. I managed to get him for Maclin, a 1st and 2nd.
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby bungle613 » Mon Jul 04, 2011 2:19 pm

MJD had a higher value then Turner but they are both in the same boat of everyone being concerned that this is the beginning of the end for them. The problem with 2.01 is that this year's draft kind of sucks. You might be looking at a HUnter or Carter at 2.01, so a crap shoot RB along with Turner for a guy who should still be a top 10 pick. There is an inaugural dynasty draft going on right now at the Cafe and he went 1.05 I think. Top 6 anyways. Turner in the 20's.

I think it would take a Turner/Top 20 WR to get him from someone NOT looking to deal him.

And just FYI, this was the deal last year in Finest.

The Random Ruckus gets
Correll Buckhalter RB DEN (rank: 55-260-258) from Texas All-Stars
Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC (rank: 12-39-11) from Texas All-Stars
Mike Goodson RB CAR (rank: 43-197-224) from Texas All-Stars
2011 4th round pick from Texas All-Stars

Texas All-Stars gets
Greg Jennings WR GB (rank: 4-40-23) from The Random Ruckus
2011 2nd round pick from The Random Ruckus
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby JimiRayThunderaxe » Mon Jul 04, 2011 8:38 pm

Given the latest revelation that MJD is to be "100% in month" and that his knee was "bone to bone" last season you can't safely bank on more than loe-end RB1/RB2 production for 2 maybe 3 more years. He could go off and be super-stud MJD again, but with those kinds of reports and the fact that MJD is still "recovering"? low-end RB1/RB2 with 50 upside/50 off a cliff seems like the only safe bet.
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby thriftyrocker » Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:18 pm

That NFL's Finest deal was with LS2. He had just traded me Calvin for Foster/Wallace so MJD became his 3rd RB so he swapped him to Bungle for Jennings. It's a special situation when MJD is your 3rd best RB.

bungle613 wrote:I would look to go the other route and look at a JStew as you can get him fairly cheap. I got him for Eli Manning late last year in a dynasty.


Unless it's a superflex, no one's doing that. You might be able to get him for a mid 1st (and I think Kar has in at least one league). I would rather have Stewart than MJD right now.

The best way to acquire MJD is to give up a younger guy with low upside. I've seen trades with Blount, Greene, and Hillis go down (individually with only small +/- on both sides to make it go). You gain more with MJD-Greene if MJD stays together for a couple years than you would lose Greene-mehRB2 if MJD is toast by November,
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby Kareighuis » Thu Jul 07, 2011 1:47 am

thriftyrocker wrote:That NFL's Finest deal was with LS2. He had just traded me Calvin for Foster/Wallace so MJD became his 3rd RB so he swapped him to Bungle for Jennings. It's a special situation when MJD is your 3rd best RB.

That certainly puts the trade into context. Also, the fact the league is non-PPR helps explain things.

thriftyrocker wrote:
bungle613 wrote:I would look to go the other route and look at a JStew as you can get him fairly cheap. I got him for Eli Manning late last year in a dynasty.


Unless it's a superflex, no one's doing that. You might be able to get him for a mid 1st (and I think Kar has in at least one league). I would rather have Stewart than MJD right now.

The core of the deal was Maclin and a 1st (turned into a mid-1st) for JStew. I also did that trade near the ultimate buy-low point- early last season, when Carolina's offense looked miserable but DWill couldn't be written off yet, either for the season or whether he'd re-sign.

thriftyrocker wrote:The best way to acquire MJD is to give up a younger guy with low upside. I've seen trades with Blount, Greene, and Hillis go down (individually with only small +/- on both sides to make it go). You gain more with MJD-Greene if MJD stays together for a couple years than you would lose Greene-mehRB2 if MJD is toast by November,

Hmm. In the main league I want to acquire him, I have Starks, Don Brown and Hardesty. Either that, or Turner. The way I've spun it, the other team is a perennial playoff team and only has MJD. Turner has a higher floor (guaranteed production) but a lower ceiling. MJD could be elite this year, but his floor is significant. He's a great RB2, but with as an RB1 with nothing behind, that's too much risk for a playoff team. He's my RB1 on a crappy team and I don't care about my lack of depth, but if I were a playoff team, I would.
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Re: MJD's dynasty value

Postby thriftyrocker » Thu Jul 07, 2011 10:01 am

What does he have at QB/WR/TE? If he has Manning/Clark/Wayne, that's one thing. He'll want to win now and MJD is his best way to do that. Turner isn't a good substitute, and 2.1 gets you a 4th round RB. That's basically Turner/Quizz for MJD. He'd rather trade his 2nd or 3rd to get Jennings and roll forward. If he has Rodgers/Finley/Maclin, that's another thing. You can sell him on blowing up his RB and being great again in 2012. An offer of 2.1/Hardesty/2012 1st might be pretty tempting.
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