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Strateegery and Vick.

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Strateegery and Vick.

Postby jwchops » Sun Jul 03, 2011 3:09 pm

I have a hard time valuing Vick where he's projected to be drafted (1st round), and while he may live up to the hype, I don't want to risk it. Mainly because I'd only feel comfortable rostering him if I reached for a good backup earlier than I want while having to skip over good depth at another position. (I rarely draft QB's earlier than the 5th round anyway so I'm a little biased) However, I think it's guaranteed someone will overvalue him in most leagues.(Matthew Berry wants to marry him and make babies). While it might be risky, maybe it's worth drafting Vick no matter how you feel about his projected value, along with a QB you feel ok with (and might draft later anyway) like Freeman, Flacco, or Ryan (or if you're feeling really lucky, Manning or Rivers) and try to trade Vick for a top tier RB or WR.

Maybe it's nuts, I dunno. Thoughts welcome....
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Re: Strateegery and Vick.

Postby WaCougMBS » Mon Jul 04, 2011 12:08 am

As far as I'm concerned, I don't think "hype" comes into play here - It's all about injury concerns and nothing more with Vick IMO. He's proven what he can do if healthy, and we saw what he was able to do last year with young, talented offensive weapons all over the field in Philly and an improved approach in the pocket.

He is that much better than every other QB when healthy, and while I think the first round is too steep a price to pay for an injury concern like he is, it's really all about that and not hype and project able production when he's on the field.

I don't really like the idea of drafting him with the sole intention of hoping he goes off and then trading him because I think far too many people with a risk aversion will avoid him or try to buy him for less than "full" value even if that's the case.

Either way, no matter where you rank him or how you feel about him, if you select Vick, I think there's NO WAY you take another top-10 signal caller unless you're set everywhere, the value is right and there's just no other move to be made. I'm all for pairing Vick with a couple of high-upside guys in the later rounds, but if you're going into the draft thinking you'll take him early no matter what the price and then reach for an overly competent backup, I think you're better off to go BPA and see if he's there in the second (maybe someone will make the decision easy for you and it'll be moot) ;-D
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Re: Strateegery and Vick.

Postby bungle613 » Mon Jul 04, 2011 12:59 pm

I agree with your line about injury concerns. He has only played one full season is his entire career (has played 15 games 3 times) but he has also cracked 30 now.

I don't think you need to panic about picking up your QB2 but I would certainly be targetting a QB in the 9-14 range overall as your backup and you can probably wait until the 8th to do that.

I won't even give you a rant on drafting a QB in the first... I will say don't do it but if you do, good luck.
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Re: Strateegery and Vick.

Postby JimiRayThunderaxe » Mon Jul 04, 2011 9:09 pm

My thoughts exactly as the fellow who posted above - IF he stays healthy he is a stone-cold stud...IF he stays healthy.

I am sorely tempted to swing for the fences with Vick myself. Considering going for Stafford as a back up should his ADP fall to the 8th round. I figure between him and Vick there is a decent chance for a super-nova at the QB position. A bit risky, but tempting.
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Re: Strateegery and Vick.

Postby mattb47 » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:21 am

Personally, I have Vick as one player I'm unlikely to have on any of my teams at all this next season for a few reasons. The biggest one is obviously that his current draft location is far higher a price than I am willing to pay for him. I am in a similar mindset that you are in that I rarely draft a QB before the 5th round and I've had some very consistent success with that strategy, the gap just isn't big enough to justify drafting a QB in round 1 in most circumstances.

Secondly, defenses can and will figure him out yet again like they did all those years ago and even like they did later into the season. I mean even looking at how he had 16 total TDs and 0 INTs through week 11 of the season and then proceeded to have 6 INTs in his last 5 games is partial evidence of that. He also had 7 fumbles in his last 5 games to go along with that as well. Now teams probably wont ever completely shut him down but they will cause him problems which leads me to believe he's unlikely to replicate the kinds of numbers he was able to put up at times last season. I don't think we'll see a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio like we saw last season (if you include his rushing TDs) and don't be surprised if he takes more hits this season like he started to more as the season wore on last year.

The third is the obvious injury risk he has which is significantly higher than any other top tier QB just because of his style of play and how frequently he runs the ball. Not much explanation needed here as he will always have issues with staying healthy for a full season.

Now it might be a reasonable thought to try to draft him and deal him but at the same time you're leaving a lot up to chance and a lot up to his value staying the same. There are a lot of times where player's draft value and trade value are not the same and I could see this being an example. Will someone trade a top tier RB for Vick after the draft? Who knows, but I bet it will be less likely than someone being willing to take him highly in the draft which makes it a risky proposition for you. I'm always weary of the "draft to trade" strategy of drafting where you don't plan on keeping the guys you take and you bank so much on being able to make a blockbuster deal like that.
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Re: Strateegery and Vick.

Postby TexasBornCowboysFan » Tue Jul 05, 2011 1:55 am

Something to think about is that some of the points you are gaining at QB could be lost at RB or WR.


Last year defenses figured out that Vick was weaker when flushed out of the pocket to the right side. I believe the Giants drafted to take advantage of this.
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Re: Strateegery and Vick.

Postby Indibuck » Tue Jul 05, 2011 11:45 am

In redrafts, I won't hesitate to gamble and pick a guy like Vick in the 2nd round.

But if you make a move like that, you have to be willing to draft a backup QB earlier than normal to hedge your bets against a Vick injury.... and hence lose potential production from a 3rd RB or 3rd WR that you may have taken at that spot in the early-middle of your draft.

Vick is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward guy.
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Re: Strateegery and Vick.

Postby thriftyrocker » Wed Jul 06, 2011 12:47 am

I have Vick as a top 10 player in redraft and wouldn't hesitate to take him in the 1st. He had > 5PPG advantage over Rogers and > 7PPG over Brady, Peyton, Brees, and the rest of the field. The only other 2010 VBD advantage that comes close is Foster vs. the pack, and it's not too controversial to say Vick is more likely to maintain the crazy PPG advantage than Foster. If you're a VBD constructionist you should probably take Vick at 1.1.

I think QB is deep enough you can wait and get Tebow or Kolb or Orton or Fitzpatrick as a backup and not feel any risk.
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