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Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

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Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby illad3lph » Tue Jul 05, 2011 5:43 pm

I want to pick up Justin Forsett but need to drop a player. Here is my roster, who should I drop?


QBs
Michael Vick (7)
Ben Roethlisberger (11)
Eli Manning (7)

RBs
Jamaal Charles (6)
Lesean McCoy (7)
Ryan Mathews (6)
Ryan Torain (5)
Ricky Williams (5)
Bernard Scott (7)
Christopher Ivory (11)
Alex Green (8)

WRs
Calvin Johnson (9)
Larry Fitzgerald (6)
Brandon Marshall (5)
Danny Amendola (5)
Lance Moore (11)
Jerome Simpson (7)
Jason Hill (9)
Jabar Gaffney (6)
Vincent Brown (6)

TEs
Jermichael Finley (8)
Rob Gronkowski (7)
Jared Cook (6)
Aaron Hernandez (7)

K
Nate Kaeding
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby LMack » Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:52 pm

You have a couple pain-free drops here.

First in mind is Jason Hill. Being the number 2 wideout in Jacksonville after a few uninspiring years doesn't excite me too much. Technically in a better situation depth wise than Vincent Brown, but if Malcom Floyd moves during free agency, Brown could catch on in San Diego. There might be room for two Vincents in Phillip Rivers' life.

The running back I'd drop is Alex Green. Between Starks, Grant,and Jackson, the chance for carries will be slim. Grant is a former feature back, Starks is an upstart, up and coming physical bruiser, and Jackson served a couple weeks as Green Bays RB1 and looks to move into the third down role this year. Above all else, Green Bay is a pass heavy team. Forsett has a better chance to get carries than Green.

The problem with these end of the bench players is almost one hundred percent of their value is based upon speculation. As we get closer to the season it would become easier to predict how the rosters will shake out. But I'm guessing you want to get Forsett now, so I'd drop one of the two guys above. If this is a large keeper/dynasty, I'd drop Hill. If all the players involved in this transaction won't likely make your keeper list, I'd drop Green.
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Tue Jul 05, 2011 10:24 pm

I would drop Bernard Scott, Jason Hill, or Jerome Simpson. "I wouldn't pick up one of them if they were free agents. At least Forsett has shown some promise.
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby LMack » Tue Jul 05, 2011 10:35 pm

Cowboys 4 life wrote:I would drop Bernard Scott, Jason Hill, or Jerome Simpson. "I wouldn't pick up one of them if they were free agents. At least Forsett has shown some promise.


The reason why I was hesitant to suggest a Bernard Scott dropping is the status of Cedric Benson. Benson could walk as a free agent and end up somewhere outside of Cincinnati (although from what I've read he is expected to stay) Even if Benson is gone, Scott might not land a full starting role but a carries increase would be expected. Scott has been okay in his NFL time, and his situation has a chance of improving.

The same goes for Simpson, at least when considering a situation that could improve. I'd definitely drop Simpson before Scott though. T.O. and Ochocinco could both be out. The rookie QB situation might be awful if (when) Carson Palmer retires.

Again as I suggested in my first post, there is so much that could change that it makes these decisions tough.
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby bungle613 » Wed Jul 06, 2011 12:07 am

From the players the other members have mentioned I would lean towards Hill. I would also consider dumping Kaeding. Why keep a kicker even one projected to be top 5. Kicking projections other than David Akers over the years are pretty much a crap shoot and really, from 1st to 12th is generally around 1-2 points per game.

Top 10 from 2010 from the Calculator...

1 11.10 Nate Kaeding PK SD 130.5 18.8 7.09 14.04 191 (finished 14th)
2 12.06 Mason Crosby PK GB 138.5 17.5 8.08 14.05 163 (finished 11th)
3 12.11 Garrett Hartley PK NO 143.0 16.8 9.03 15.08 188 (finished 22nd)
4 13.07 Stephen Gostkowski PK NE 150.8 12.9 10.09 15.05 116 (finished 32nd)
5 14.07 Ryan Longwell PK MIN 162.7 10.6 12.03 15.12 199 (finished 26th)
6 14.09 Rob Bironas PK TEN 164.9 9.5 12.08 15.10 104 (finished 12th)
7 14.11 David Akers PK PHI 166.8 10.3 12.08 15.12 293 (finished 1st)
8 14.12 Adam Vinatieri PK IND 168.0 10.8 12.07 15.12 111 (finished 3rd)
9 15.02 Sebastian Janikowski PK OAK 169.7 9.9 13.01 15.11 24 (finished 2nd)
10 15.03 Robbie Gould PK CHI 170.6 6.6 13.09 15.12 28 (finished 13th)
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby thriftyrocker » Wed Jul 06, 2011 12:17 am

I would drop Gaffney before I dropped any of the other recommendations. Gaffney has no trade value, no upside, and will never start for you. If you dropped Alex Green or Jerome Simpson, someone will pick them up instantly - you have 0 chance of getting them back. Jason Hill has less value than Green or Simpson but he does have legitimate hype due to his 4.3 speed and the lack of competition in JAX. He is kind of a 2011 Brandon Lloyd candidate. Really all these guys except Gaffney have more value than Forsett, so if you're related to Gaffney I would let someone else take Forsett.
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby WaCougMBS » Wed Jul 06, 2011 2:38 pm

thriftyrocker wrote:I would drop Gaffney before I dropped any of the other recommendations. Gaffney has no trade value, no upside, and will never start for you. If you dropped Alex Green or Jerome Simpson, someone will pick them up instantly - you have 0 chance of getting them back. Jason Hill has less value than Green or Simpson but he does have legitimate hype due to his 4.3 speed and the lack of competition in JAX. He is kind of a 2011 Brandon Lloyd candidate. Really all these guys except Gaffney have more value than Forsett, so if you're related to Gaffney I would let someone else take Forsett.


This is my thinking (about Gaffney) as well. No way he starts for you, but there's a chance Hill could do something special (yes I'm Alma mater-biased, and yes I think 4.3 is a bit generous for a speed prediction), and I think that dropping any of the other guys you've mentioned will end in them getting snapped up quickly. Not so sure Gaffney even does, but if so, who cares? :-?
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby thriftyrocker » Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:26 pm

WaCougMBS wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:I would drop Gaffney before I dropped any of the other recommendations. Gaffney has no trade value, no upside, and will never start for you. If you dropped Alex Green or Jerome Simpson, someone will pick them up instantly - you have 0 chance of getting them back. Jason Hill has less value than Green or Simpson but he does have legitimate hype due to his 4.3 speed and the lack of competition in JAX. He is kind of a 2011 Brandon Lloyd candidate. Really all these guys except Gaffney have more value than Forsett, so if you're related to Gaffney I would let someone else take Forsett.


This is my thinking (about Gaffney) as well. No way he starts for you, but there's a chance Hill could do something special (yes I'm Alma mater-biased, and yes I think 4.3 is a bit generous for a speed prediction), and I think that dropping any of the other guys you've mentioned will end in them getting snapped up quickly. Not so sure Gaffney even does, but if so, who cares? :-?


Jason Hill ran a 4.32 at the combine. Not sure if he plays that fast, but he has speed. Had over 20 ypc last year in JAX in limited action after being claimed after SF waived him.
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby WaCougMBS » Thu Jul 07, 2011 11:16 am

thriftyrocker wrote:
WaCougMBS wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:I would drop Gaffney before I dropped any of the other recommendations. Gaffney has no trade value, no upside, and will never start for you. If you dropped Alex Green or Jerome Simpson, someone will pick them up instantly - you have 0 chance of getting them back. Jason Hill has less value than Green or Simpson but he does have legitimate hype due to his 4.3 speed and the lack of competition in JAX. He is kind of a 2011 Brandon Lloyd candidate. Really all these guys except Gaffney have more value than Forsett, so if you're related to Gaffney I would let someone else take Forsett.


This is my thinking (about Gaffney) as well. No way he starts for you, but there's a chance Hill could do something special (yes I'm Alma mater-biased, and yes I think 4.3 is a bit generous for a speed prediction), and I think that dropping any of the other guys you've mentioned will end in them getting snapped up quickly. Not so sure Gaffney even does, but if so, who cares? :-?


Jason Hill ran a 4.32 at the combine. Not sure if he plays that fast, but he has speed. Had over 20 ypc last year in JAX in limited action after being claimed after SF waived him.


Really? Wow, I'm shocked by that - I knew he was pretty fast (thought 4.4-ish) and he does play pretty fast, but I never noticed THAT kind of speed in the 3 years I watched him play in college. Regardless, I like him quite a bit (maybe too much, but I like being a homer with the last Coug to make the NFL for a few years) ;-D
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Re: Waiver Wire Help, WHIR

Postby LMack » Thu Jul 07, 2011 12:29 pm

That Jason Hill 40 time is very surprising to me. With a lot of the players who don't have too much NFL experience (or atleast NFL experience worth referencing), I usually check the scouting report on ESPN Insiders done by Scouts Inc. to see what kind of player they could be in a better situation. This is the Hill entry:

Comment: Hill took a step back in 2009 when he played in 11 games, starting none, and finished with nine receptions. He is a good overall athlete with size and adequate speed and good receiving skills. He shows good acceleration off the line and can sink his hips to get in and out of his breaks with a burst to separate from defenders but lacks the top end speed to maintain the gap. He still needs to work on running more precise routes and not rounding things and he will show some lapses in concentration at times.

Hill's 4.32 40 is faster than DeSean Jackson's :-? Jackson is heralded for his speed and explosive athleticism but combine wise Hill beat him in the 40, broad jump, and vertical leap. All this talk about Hill's physical skill set is actually changing my mind. Drafting athletes in the late round of the draft (or in your case holding on to them) and hoping they figure out how to translate it into football isn't an awful flier strategy.
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