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The QBBC: How to?

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The QBBC: How to?

Postby LMack » Thu Jul 07, 2011 1:15 pm

I know people have some mixed reviews of the ESPN fantasy football product, but their articles are at least interesting at times. The latest article by AJ Mass, found at http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/footb ... bconundrum debates the pros and cons of landing a stud quarterback versus pairing two late round quarterback options.

Now, I personally am a believer in loading up on solid RBs/WRs early and waiting on a quarterback, especially in shallower leagues. My question does not revolve around that. I plan on waiting on quarterbacks like I usually do. My question is, how (what statistics do you reference/ what specific quarterback pairings would you draft in 2011 based on bye-weeks and strength of schedule/whatever else) do you best play the match ups of your two quarterbacks?

The article by Mass used fantasy points allowed to QBs as the sole evaluator of which QB to start on the week to week basis. The example he gave was the pairing of Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer. If an owner accurately selected which QB to start every week, that duo would rank 3rd overall in QB scoring. But the catch is, using fantasy points allowed to QBs, I'll call it "fpaQB" (ie starting the QB against the defense that allowed more points to quarterbacks on the season, regardless of any other factors) misled 10 out of 17 times. Using just that stat can be inaccurate. FFtoolbox created a list that seeks to answer my question, but their rankings are again, based only on fpaQB. http://fftoolbox.com/football/2011/quar ... -pairs.cfm, in case you were curious.

So this brings me back to the purpose of this tl;dr post. The stat fpaQB can be skewed. Teams would appear weak against QBs if they allowed rushing TDs or high rushing totals to the Vicks, Tebows, Garrards, and Rodgers'. If an owner has an immobile quarterback, the fantasy matchup may seem better than it truly is.The rushing touchdowns/yards given up are irrelevant if an owner is not starting a QB with that skillset.The NY Giants looked like an average team against QBs based on fpaQB, but they were actually an above average defense against the pass in 2011. Pocket passers, especially those outside the elite group, would fare worse against the NYG than quarterbacks who rush.

In closing, how do you decide which QB to start? For those who have done the Cafe StartSits, what statistics do you look beyond a quarterbacks raw skill? What makes a match up "good"? Passing touchdowns/yards allowed? Adjusted defensive metrics such as DVOA? A team's defensive red zone stats?

Or do you just pick a pair of quarterbacks that makes it a no brainer choice? What makes them a no brainer pair on a week to week basis? If you see an example of such a duo, please share.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby LMack » Thu Jul 07, 2011 2:15 pm

Excuse the double post, but I figured I'd add a couple answers to this thread instead of a bunch of questions.

My current theory is to draft multiple quarterbacks late, but not with the intention to flip flop them weekly. I will pair ESPN's 10th-ish QB, I'll say Matt Ryan, with an upside quarterback. Instead of pairing Matt Ryan with a low ceiling quarterback (Mark Sanchez), I'd take a risk on a Matthew Stafford or a Tim Tebow type. The second quarterback I draft is someone I expect to outperform their ADP and if they have a break out season, I'd plan to keep them as my starter and trade away my "Matt Ryan." However, this is no where near a guarantee. Sometimes that second pick does not break out as I hoped it would, and I end up with no QB1's.

That scenario is what led me back to this question. If I get two lemons, how do I get the best out of them without sacrificing the strength of the rest of my team?

Heh, I guess I did ask more questions :-b

I know sometimes it is difficult to talk about vague draft and team management strategy, but its July and we're locked out. Discussion of FF keeps me sane and hopeful.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby daullaz » Thu Jul 07, 2011 2:50 pm

LMack wrote:In closing, how do you decide which QB to start? For those who have done the Cafe StartSits, what statistics do you look beyond a quarterbacks raw skill? What makes a match up "good"? Passing touchdowns/yards allowed? Adjusted defensive metrics such as DVOA? A team's defensive red zone stats?


All of the above? :-D

I generally used the DVOA ratings (weighted, IIRC) and passing touchdowns/yards/INTs to determine the better matchups.

I love the QBBC strategy, and I generally go for one safe QB and a high upside guy, like you said. For me this year, I'm probably targeting Eli as my nominal starter and Stafford, Bradford and/or Tebow as upside guys. Of course, it also depends how drafts fall -- I've seen Rodgers available late second in some mocks, and I'd jump on him there and throw QBBC out the window. Same holds true with other elite QBs; at a certain draft price, I'd rather take them and focus more on good RB/WR depth in the later rounds.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby thriftyrocker » Thu Jul 07, 2011 3:54 pm

I think an Eli (or Flacco or Freeman or etc., etc.) and Tebow pairing is awesome this year. Start Tebow when Tebow starts. Otherwise start Eli.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby moochman » Thu Jul 07, 2011 3:58 pm

One of my favorite QB drafting strategy is to wait until the mid rounds and draft the best of the QBs left that I had earmarked to draft. I would look for QBs who finished the season before on an upswing and someone more stable but overlooked. An example would be drafting Rivers in 08 after a mediocre 07 season and Eli Manning in back-to-back rounds. Manning an under the radar points producer, and Rivers who had a great offense in which to rack up points. In doing so, I had a QB I could rely on and one who could surprise on the upside.
As for who I played, match-ups and weather were a factor, but as a rule the hot QB gets the ball. The more equally matched the QBs were, the more heavily match-ups were weighed in deciding who would start.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby LMack » Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:16 pm

moochman wrote:One of my favorite QB drafting strategy is to wait until the mid rounds and draft the best of the QBs left that I had earmarked to draft. I would look for QBs who finished the season before on an upswing and someone more stable but overlooked. An example would be drafting Rivers in 08 after a mediocre 07 season and Eli Manning in back-to-back rounds. Manning an under the radar points producer, and Rivers who had a great offense in which to rack up points. In doing so, I had a QB I could rely on and one who could surprise on the upside.
As for who I played, match-ups and weather were a factor, but as a rule the hot QB gets the ball. The more equally matched the QBs were, the more heavily match-ups were weighed in deciding who would start.


I find the back to back QB drafting is one of the more difficult situations to manage. That seems to be what is expected for the 10th (or 12th, or 14th) person to draft a quarterback to do. Snaking two QBs just makes it that much harder to play match ups in my opinion, and if there is a clear talent different maybe the rankings you used were wrong. :-b

Now Moochman, I'm not saying your situation was necessarily like that. As you said, although the picks were made back to back it was not simply 1A and 1B. Your drafting was based on a combination of consistency and upside, and I think that is the right strategy to use. I guess what I'm looking for now is more when to do it. Adaptability is key here too, as waiting on quarterbacks is all about getting value at all positions.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby moochman » Thu Jul 07, 2011 5:32 pm

LMack wrote:
moochman wrote:One of my favorite QB drafting strategy is to wait until the mid rounds and draft the best of the QBs left that I had earmarked to draft. I would look for QBs who finished the season before on an upswing and someone more stable but overlooked. An example would be drafting Rivers in 08 after a mediocre 07 season and Eli Manning in back-to-back rounds. Manning an under the radar points producer, and Rivers who had a great offense in which to rack up points. In doing so, I had a QB I could rely on and one who could surprise on the upside.
As for who I played, match-ups and weather were a factor, but as a rule the hot QB gets the ball. The more equally matched the QBs were, the more heavily match-ups were weighed in deciding who would start.


I find the back to back QB drafting is one of the more difficult situations to manage. That seems to be what is expected for the 10th (or 12th, or 14th) person to draft a quarterback to do. Snaking two QBs just makes it that much harder to play match ups in my opinion, and if there is a clear talent different maybe the rankings you used were wrong. :-b

Now Moochman, I'm not saying your situation was necessarily like that. As you said, although the picks were made back to back it was not simply 1A and 1B. Your drafting was based on a combination of consistency and upside, and I think that is the right strategy to use. I guess what I'm looking for now is more when to do it. Adaptability is key here too, as waiting on quarterbacks is all about getting value at all positions.


Since I didn't want to use hope as a strategy, I targeted my QBs between rounds 7-10 depending on how the draft unfurled. Normally, there is still good quality left there, and I choose from several candidates of whom I feeI would either provide consistancy/upside mix, or have favorable schedules as to allow match-ups. Not saying it always works out, but it has enough to make it a part of my draft strategy. When to take the first QB is soley reliant upon my league-mates desire to fill their QB needs. I find in a lot of leagues, once the elite QBs are taken people tend to fill other needs. You would be surprised at how often you can land two of the handful of QBs you hoped would be available. And nobody seems to notice, that is, I don't find other players taking a QB just because I took my first one. They prolly assume that I have filled that need and will draft a different position or they had planned to wait.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby LS2throwed » Thu Jul 07, 2011 10:58 pm

I'm trying to take two high upside guys if I'm gonna wait until I have my RB's, WR's, and TE. I don't need solid, I can find solid on the WW just like every year. Give me Stafford, Bradford, & Freeman types. If I have 2 of them I feel just as good as a QB1 because you will get those guys on great matchups week to week. It's not an exact science, but after a month you know who gets shredded on defense and who shuts down the shootouts. Those guys are likely to have quite a bit multi TD games, and some really big weeks.

I waited on QB's last year, I think in 1 league I ended up with Josh Freeman and Matt Cassell, kept waiting and waiting and there was never good enough value. I'd like to brag on Cassell as a late QB find but I traded him before week 4 or so when he had just been average up to that point. Then he started to pick it up quite a bit, but I took him because of the upside of that offense. He was either gonna be garbage, or outplay his ADP by a few rounds.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby bostonsoxandy » Fri Jul 08, 2011 10:52 am

LMack wrote:
My current theory is to draft multiple quarterbacks late, but not with the intention to flip flop them weekly. I will pair ESPN's 10th-ish QB, I'll say Matt Ryan, with an upside quarterback. Instead of pairing Matt Ryan with a low ceiling quarterback (Mark Sanchez), I'd take a risk on a Matthew Stafford or a Tim Tebow type.

That scenario is what led me back to this question. If I get two lemons, how do I get the best out of them without sacrificing the strength of the rest of my team?


I'll answer by giving a scenario to show how unlikely it is...let's say you grab Matt Ryan and Tebow. If Ryan gets injured and Tebow isn't starting (a good possibility) you're done. So draft one more QB to make it a true QBBC. A stable QB with not a big ceiling but a consistent performer, think Eli, Roethlisberger, Flacco etc.

As far as who to start by drafting 3 I would go with Ryan every week unless low-ceiling QB or Tebow (high-ceiling QB) has a matchup against a terrible defense. And of course if your high-ceiling dude breaks out then I would start him unless he is going against a stingy defense.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby thriftyrocker » Fri Jul 08, 2011 1:45 pm

Stafford is going much too early to be counted as a "upside QB2". Bradford also.

Your only real option as a true upside play is Tebow. Newton is a remote possibility, especially if you have a 4/6 pass td -to- rush td imbalance, but few will stomach relying on him, and he'll stay on most waivers most of the year.

The QB2 minefield is littered with Cutler, Sanchez, Kolb, Cassel, Orton without McDaniels who have no real upside, and you're back to matchups.
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