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The QBBC: How to?

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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby LMack » Fri Jul 08, 2011 3:11 pm

I wish Mass dug up the ESPN weekly projections as the reference on who to start instead of simply the end fpa totals. The method Mass suggested assumed quarterbacks of equal talent, while that is impossible.

Out of my curiosity, I looked at the 2010 archived Cafe start sits to see how often the right choice between Flacco and Palmer was identified.

The Cafe was right 12 out of 17 weeks, with 2 of those 12 weeks being one of the quarterbacks bye weeks. Flacco was recommended 14 weeks, Palmer 3. I made a nice table to put this all in but I couldn't get my BBcode to work.

Just some food for thought. Predicting match ups is more manageable than Mass suggested.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby LS2throwed » Sat Jul 09, 2011 6:34 pm

thriftyrocker wrote:Stafford is going much too early to be counted as a "upside QB2". Bradford also.



You think? What's too early to you? Because if I can get Freeman in round 10, and Bradford in round 11, or Stafford in round 12, or some sort of possibility of that order that's not much too early for me. If I can get 2 RB's, 3 WR's, and a TE I'm on round 7 where I can get depth at RB or WR for 3 more picks before I even need to take a QB.


Granted some drafts people may reach, and I haven't been following along with many mock drafts but that seems feasable to me. I'd honestly be fine taking a QB in round 7 if a guy like Romo was there(just throwing him out there, no clue where he has been going), but I would feel very confident in I could land 2 of the above QB's, especially so if I happened to have all 3 somehow.


To me that's QB2 territory, way too soon is rounds 5-8. Once were talking about the point to where you've gotten all your starters elsewhere I'd love to roll with the upside of guys like that in a redraft and rotate easy matchups. Bradford has an easy division in itself, so you get some fun games vs Sea, SF, and Arizona.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:02 am

LS2throwed wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:Stafford is going much too early to be counted as a "upside QB2". Bradford also.



You think? What's too early to you? Because if I can get Freeman in round 10, and Bradford in round 11, or Stafford in round 12, or some sort of possibility of that order that's not much too early for me. If I can get 2 RB's, 3 WR's, and a TE I'm on round 7 where I can get depth at RB or WR for 3 more picks before I even need to take a QB.


Granted some drafts people may reach, and I haven't been following along with many mock drafts but that seems feasable to me. I'd honestly be fine taking a QB in round 7 if a guy like Romo was there(just throwing him out there, no clue where he has been going), but I would feel very confident in I could land 2 of the above QB's, especially so if I happened to have all 3 somehow.


To me that's QB2 territory, way too soon is rounds 5-8. Once were talking about the point to where you've gotten all your starters elsewhere I'd love to roll with the upside of guys like that in a redraft and rotate easy matchups. Bradford has an easy division in itself, so you get some fun games vs Sea, SF, and Arizona.


in the ongoing cafe mock (12 teams)
QB:
2.05 Michael Vick - QB, PHI
3.01 Aaron Rodgers - QB, GB
3.09 Drew Brees - QB, NO
3.12 Peyton Manning - QB, IND
4.03 Philip Rivers - QB, SD
4.09 Tom Brady- QB , NE
5.03 Tony Romo - QB, DAL
6.06 Sam Bradford - QB, STL
6.08 Matt Schaub - QB, HOU
7.05 Matt Stafford - QB, DET
7.11- Big Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit
8.11 Matt Ryan - QB, ATL
9.08 Josh Freeman - QB, TB
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby LMack » Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:52 am

Dan Lambskin wrote:
LS2throwed wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:Stafford is going much too early to be counted as a "upside QB2". Bradford also.



You think? What's too early to you? Because if I can get Freeman in round 10, and Bradford in round 11, or Stafford in round 12, or some sort of possibility of that order that's not much too early for me. If I can get 2 RB's, 3 WR's, and a TE I'm on round 7 where I can get depth at RB or WR for 3 more picks before I even need to take a QB.


Granted some drafts people may reach, and I haven't been following along with many mock drafts but that seems feasable to me. I'd honestly be fine taking a QB in round 7 if a guy like Romo was there(just throwing him out there, no clue where he has been going), but I would feel very confident in I could land 2 of the above QB's, especially so if I happened to have all 3 somehow.


To me that's QB2 territory, way too soon is rounds 5-8. Once were talking about the point to where you've gotten all your starters elsewhere I'd love to roll with the upside of guys like that in a redraft and rotate easy matchups. Bradford has an easy division in itself, so you get some fun games vs Sea, SF, and Arizona.


in the ongoing cafe mock (12 teams)
QB:
2.05 Michael Vick - QB, PHI
3.01 Aaron Rodgers - QB, GB
3.09 Drew Brees - QB, NO
3.12 Peyton Manning - QB, IND
4.03 Philip Rivers - QB, SD
4.09 Tom Brady- QB , NE
5.03 Tony Romo - QB, DAL
6.06 Sam Bradford - QB, STL
6.08 Matt Schaub - QB, HOU
7.05 Matt Stafford - QB, DET
7.11- Big Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit
8.11 Matt Ryan - QB, ATL
9.08 Josh Freeman - QB, TB


Wow. It looks like Eli/Tebow will be doable, but I feel like if Tebow breaks camp as the starter everyone is going to draft him as their upside, "not really great at football but productive in this silly fantasy game" quarterback.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby LS2throwed » Mon Jul 11, 2011 9:16 am

Dan Lambskin wrote:
LS2throwed wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:Stafford is going much too early to be counted as a "upside QB2". Bradford also.



You think? What's too early to you? Because if I can get Freeman in round 10, and Bradford in round 11, or Stafford in round 12, or some sort of possibility of that order that's not much too early for me. If I can get 2 RB's, 3 WR's, and a TE I'm on round 7 where I can get depth at RB or WR for 3 more picks before I even need to take a QB.


Granted some drafts people may reach, and I haven't been following along with many mock drafts but that seems feasable to me. I'd honestly be fine taking a QB in round 7 if a guy like Romo was there(just throwing him out there, no clue where he has been going), but I would feel very confident in I could land 2 of the above QB's, especially so if I happened to have all 3 somehow.


To me that's QB2 territory, way too soon is rounds 5-8. Once were talking about the point to where you've gotten all your starters elsewhere I'd love to roll with the upside of guys like that in a redraft and rotate easy matchups. Bradford has an easy division in itself, so you get some fun games vs Sea, SF, and Arizona.


in the ongoing cafe mock (12 teams)
QB:
2.05 Michael Vick - QB, PHI
3.01 Aaron Rodgers - QB, GB
3.09 Drew Brees - QB, NO
3.12 Peyton Manning - QB, IND
4.03 Philip Rivers - QB, SD
4.09 Tom Brady- QB , NE
5.03 Tony Romo - QB, DAL
6.06 Sam Bradford - QB, STL
6.08 Matt Schaub - QB, HOU
7.05 Matt Stafford - QB, DET
7.11- Big Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit
8.11 Matt Ryan - QB, ATL
9.08 Josh Freeman - QB, TB




Thanks for that, I hadn't been keeping up at all this year. In this scenario, I'd probably still take Stafford in the 7th, Freeman in the 9th, then probably top it off with good ol trustworthy Hasselbeck. That does seem like extremely, extremely early for him, but I'd have my roster filled at that point, and I wouldn't be afraid of him if I could get the other 2 guys later.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby thriftyrocker » Mon Jul 11, 2011 10:02 am

If you're going to spend a 9th on Freeman, it even more seems like blowing money fast to take Stafford in the 7th. Unless you think Stafford is going to start putting up Marino numbers. More likely it will just be Tony Romo numbers, which is still great, but not enough to both reach and get a backup 2 rounds later. Not to harp on one mock too much, but if you just take Roethlisberger there you probably don't need a backup at all.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby daullaz » Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:53 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:
LS2throwed wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:Stafford is going much too early to be counted as a "upside QB2". Bradford also.



You think? What's too early to you? Because if I can get Freeman in round 10, and Bradford in round 11, or Stafford in round 12, or some sort of possibility of that order that's not much too early for me. If I can get 2 RB's, 3 WR's, and a TE I'm on round 7 where I can get depth at RB or WR for 3 more picks before I even need to take a QB.


Granted some drafts people may reach, and I haven't been following along with many mock drafts but that seems feasable to me. I'd honestly be fine taking a QB in round 7 if a guy like Romo was there(just throwing him out there, no clue where he has been going), but I would feel very confident in I could land 2 of the above QB's, especially so if I happened to have all 3 somehow.


To me that's QB2 territory, way too soon is rounds 5-8. Once were talking about the point to where you've gotten all your starters elsewhere I'd love to roll with the upside of guys like that in a redraft and rotate easy matchups. Bradford has an easy division in itself, so you get some fun games vs Sea, SF, and Arizona.


in the ongoing cafe mock (12 teams)
QB:
2.05 Michael Vick - QB, PHI
3.01 Aaron Rodgers - QB, GB
3.09 Drew Brees - QB, NO
3.12 Peyton Manning - QB, IND
4.03 Philip Rivers - QB, SD
4.09 Tom Brady- QB , NE
5.03 Tony Romo - QB, DAL
6.06 Sam Bradford - QB, STL
6.08 Matt Schaub - QB, HOU
7.05 Matt Stafford - QB, DET
7.11- Big Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit
8.11 Matt Ryan - QB, ATL
9.08 Josh Freeman - QB, TB


I think that Bradford pick is a serious aberration -- I don't ever see him off the board in the first six rounds. His ADP is 10.10 in a 12-teamer on Calculator right now. Stafford's is 9.12, FWIW.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby spodog » Tue Jul 12, 2011 12:47 pm

moochman wrote:One of my favorite QB drafting strategy is to wait until the mid rounds and draft the best of the QBs left that I had earmarked to draft. I would look for QBs who finished the season before on an upswing and someone more stable but overlooked. An example would be drafting Rivers in 08 after a mediocre 07 season and Eli Manning in back-to-back rounds. Manning an under the radar points producer, and Rivers who had a great offense in which to rack up points. In doing so, I had a QB I could rely on and one who could surprise on the upside.
As for who I played, match-ups and weather were a factor, but as a rule the hot QB gets the ball. The more equally matched the QBs were, the more heavily match-ups were weighed in deciding who would start.


I employed this strategy in a league last year, using Matt Ryan and Flacco, who drafted in consecutive rounds.

A few observations with it - I waited a few rounds two late to take my QBBC guys, I should have pounced earlier. It can also be frustrating in those weeks when the matchups don't particularly favor one guy over another and you inevitably go with the wrong guy.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby bostonsoxandy » Thu Jul 14, 2011 9:20 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:
LS2throwed wrote:
thriftyrocker wrote:Stafford is going much too early to be counted as a "upside QB2". Bradford also.



You think? What's too early to you? Because if I can get Freeman in round 10, and Bradford in round 11, or Stafford in round 12, or some sort of possibility of that order that's not much too early for me. If I can get 2 RB's, 3 WR's, and a TE I'm on round 7 where I can get depth at RB or WR for 3 more picks before I even need to take a QB.


Granted some drafts people may reach, and I haven't been following along with many mock drafts but that seems feasable to me. I'd honestly be fine taking a QB in round 7 if a guy like Romo was there(just throwing him out there, no clue where he has been going), but I would feel very confident in I could land 2 of the above QB's, especially so if I happened to have all 3 somehow.


To me that's QB2 territory, way too soon is rounds 5-8. Once were talking about the point to where you've gotten all your starters elsewhere I'd love to roll with the upside of guys like that in a redraft and rotate easy matchups. Bradford has an easy division in itself, so you get some fun games vs Sea, SF, and Arizona.


in the ongoing cafe mock (12 teams)
QB:
2.05 Michael Vick - QB, PHI
3.01 Aaron Rodgers - QB, GB
3.09 Drew Brees - QB, NO
3.12 Peyton Manning - QB, IND
4.03 Philip Rivers - QB, SD
4.09 Tom Brady- QB , NE
5.03 Tony Romo - QB, DAL
6.06 Sam Bradford - QB, STL
6.08 Matt Schaub - QB, HOU
7.05 Matt Stafford - QB, DET
7.11- Big Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pit
8.11 Matt Ryan - QB, ATL
9.08 Josh Freeman - QB, TB


in all honesty, this is an absolutely horrible mock draft by the cafe. normally they are decent but why on earth is Rodgers going so late (3rd round pick???), Bradford before Schaub/Ryan, and no Joe Flacco!??!?!?

garbage.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby u_fig_eater » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:08 pm

As a Cafe apologist:

Yes, Rodgers was taken in the 3rd, but barely (3.01). Whoever got him had picks at the turn (2.12 / 3.01). I don't think this is outrageous. He gets hit a lot, runs a lot, and there's some injury risk. No harm in shoring up other positions before grabbing him as the second QB off the board.

Flacco does not impress me. He's a glorified Kyle Orton (look at their stats). He just doesn't look good during games, either. Additionally, the Ravens haven't done much to address their WR needs. They have Boldin, a 37-year old, and a rookie. IMO he's not a fantasy starter.
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