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The QBBC: How to?

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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby murphysxm » Sat Jul 16, 2011 6:20 pm

I will throw a completely different angle out there. I am anti-strategy and go straight on tiers. Elite QB's are awesome to have and must be grabbed if the price is right. If I am at the end of round 1 and Vick is there, I probably pull the trigger. However is I am mid round 4 and 8 QB's are off the board, I'm not going to reach to draft the best QB left. Especially this year. There are 12 QB's that I would walk away from a draft happy as my QB1, not even worrying about QBBC.
h
No particular order
Vick
Rodgers
Peyton
Eli
Rivers
Brady
Big Ben
Matty Ice
Cutler
Romo
Schaub
Freeman
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby J Per » Sun Jul 17, 2011 10:44 pm

bostonsoxandy wrote:
LMack wrote:
My current theory is to draft multiple quarterbacks late, but not with the intention to flip flop them weekly. I will pair ESPN's 10th-ish QB, I'll say Matt Ryan, with an upside quarterback. Instead of pairing Matt Ryan with a low ceiling quarterback (Mark Sanchez), I'd take a risk on a Matthew Stafford or a Tim Tebow type.

That scenario is what led me back to this question. If I get two lemons, how do I get the best out of them without sacrificing the strength of the rest of my team?


I'll answer by giving a scenario to show how unlikely it is...let's say you grab Matt Ryan and Tebow. If Ryan gets injured and Tebow isn't starting (a good possibility) you're done. So draft one more QB to make it a true QBBC. A stable QB with not a big ceiling but a consistent performer, think Eli, Roethlisberger, Flacco etc.

As far as who to start by drafting 3 I would go with Ryan every week unless low-ceiling QB or Tebow (high-ceiling QB) has a matchup against a terrible defense. And of course if your high-ceiling dude breaks out then I would start him unless he is going against a stingy defense.


Real-life testimonial to this: I drafted Stafford and Kolb last year. I finished with Fitzpatrick and Shaun Hill. Should have taken a third QB since both of mine were still unproven.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby LMack » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:54 am

As far as my OP, the unreliability of FPA to QBs:

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Pretty big fluctuation from 2009 to 2010, especially for the Bears, Redskins, Texans, and Cowboys of the teams featured. The numbers might be cherry picked a bit, I'm not sure. Just a cautionary tale on basing defenses on previous performance.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby JimiRayThunderaxe » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:21 am

Can someone please tell me what "DVOA ratings (weighted, IIRC)" means?

Also, as far as Cutler goes, Didn't da Bears draft an O-line man? What if they get another in free agency? Cutler seems to do a lot with what little he has except for Shannahan's last year when he had an actual O-line and weapons around him.

Also, seems like if you are going to go QBBC you probably want to draft the 2 upside guys and get the "solid" guy from the W Wire when you need him. Three QBs take up a lot of bench space.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:31 am

murphysxm wrote:I will throw a completely different angle out there. I am anti-strategy and go straight on tiers. Elite QB's are awesome to have and must be grabbed if the price is right. If I am at the end of round 1 and Vick is there, I probably pull the trigger. However is I am mid round 4 and 8 QB's are off the board, I'm not going to reach to draft the best QB left. Especially this year. There are 12 QB's that I would walk away from a draft happy as my QB1, not even worrying about QBBC.
h
No particular order
Vick
Rodgers
Peyton
Eli
Rivers
Brady
Big Ben
Matty Ice
Cutler
Romo
Schaub
Freeman


If you would take any of them in no particular order, how can you say that you're drafting by tier? But then you also say that you would take Vick at the end of Round 1, but some of the others you wouldn't take mid-4th.

I think (because you offer an alternative drafting strat) that you're missing the whole point of QBBC, that a select group of later-round QB's can overall perform similar to an early round QB, enabling you to take an extra RB or WR early in the draft, which could be a huge advantage over those who used an early pick on a star QB.

It's not for everyone, and it does take a lot of strat, but it adds another dimension to the game for players who want to give it a try.

Give it a try on one of the freebie league sites to see how it works.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby u_fig_eater » Fri Jul 22, 2011 3:23 pm

I don't get why you would spend three draft picks on a position where only one man starts. Also, that third guy isn't going to be much better than what's floating around on the WW.

As for the earlier example, if I had Ryan / Eli or Ryan / Roethlisberger, I would have no need for a third QB. There's no scenario, barring injury, where I would start Tebow over either of them.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby daullaz » Fri Jul 22, 2011 8:46 pm

JimiRayThunderaxe wrote:Can someone please tell me what "DVOA ratings (weighted, IIRC)" means?


http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby DraftDodger » Sun Jul 24, 2011 5:54 pm

u_fig_eater wrote:I don't get why you would spend three draft picks on a position where only one man starts. Also, that third guy isn't going to be much better than what's floating around on the WW.

As for the earlier example, if I had Ryan / Eli or Ryan / Roethlisberger, I would have no need for a third QB. There's no scenario, barring injury, where I would start Tebow over either of them.


QBBC relies on match-ups to make lower-drafted QBs look like (and often perform like) #1s. The player essentially targets the worst (or expected worst) NFL pass defenses, and finds the (cheaply available) QBs who will face them. No one or two QBs are likely to have great matchups every week, but three or four can.

The idea of carrying a third (or even 4th) QB isn't so bad when you factor in that it's allowing you to draft stronger at key RB and WR positions.

I'm not claiming it's a great strat much less the best strat, but in theory it lets you draft better than your competition in the early rounds. And it brings a smile to your face when your opponent QB #1 on bye and #2 facing a stingy defense, while one of your QB's is matched up against a team giving up 300 passing yards and 3-4 passing TDs a game.
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Re: The QBBC: How to?

Postby Wenchtamer » Mon Jul 25, 2011 6:00 am

I did a mock draft yesterday and ended up with Stafford (Round 10) and Tebow (Round 13). This is perhaps too volatile a combo, but the upside is scary.

Two late round guys I like are Cassel and Fitzpatrick. Both went undrafted I believe. Cassel could be solid this year with all those weapons.

I'm definitely considering waiting until Round 12 or 13 (depending on how the draft is going) to take my first QB this year, and going with a Tebow/Cassel combo. The RB/WR depth would be sick.
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