by LMack » Thu Jul 07, 2011 10:48 pm
I think if this is moved over to the Football Talk section of the forum it'd get a little more action.
Anywho, I think Harris summed it up best in this sentence "I think he'll be a top-five fantasy QB. But to be worthy of a first-round fantasy pick -- and to be worthy of the first overall fantasy pick, a notion I've heard floated by some this summer -- a player must boast an elite combination of steadiness, upside and safety. I don't think Vick is there"
I'd say Vick has steadiness to some degree. Even on games where Vick is not passing successfully, he is able to run for some value. It is hard to completely keep him off the board, unlike some pure passers such as Brees. When Brees got shut down in 2010, he put up numbers in the low teens. Vick getting shut out was around 20 points. Standard scoring wise at least.
Upside, well Vick has plenty. I don't think I need to write anything about that.
Which brings us to safety. It is hard to justify taking a player in the first round (a QB of all positions) who is such an injury risk. Missing an average of 3 games a season is simply too much for the first player on your team. Vick may play 16 games in 2011, but the chance he misses time is too much of a threat. A lack of safety totally negates any upside or steadiness.
I'm not saying I would not draft Vick. In keeper leagues where I had a solid, safe base I would try to make a move for him to put my team over the top. In larger redraft leagues, Vick as a late first rounder after all the feature backs are gone makes sense too. I am going to play in about 4 leagues this year, and although I wouldn't shy away from drafting Vick, I'm not sure I will have him on any of my teams. I think that everyone will be too bullish on Vick for my taste.
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