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Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby daullaz » Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:31 am

Free Bagel wrote:
daullaz wrote:Right, we're talking about biggest fantasy ranking leap. Johnson was a No. 2 RB with upside buried in the draft one year and a top-three guy the next. Arian Foster, by comparison, went from being a no name with just one big Week 17 performance to a 4th-5th round pick, THEN had his breakthrough and is now the No. 1 pick. While it's a great story, jumping from a 4th rounder to a top overall pick isn't that rare. I think I remember Adrian Peterson in that range his rookie season.


I think you guys are badly mis-remembering how Larry Johnson was valued in the season before his breakout.

LJ was the #1 pick in 2006. In 2005, he was a consensus 5th rounder, just like Foster was last year. He was certainly not "buried in the draft" any more than Foster was.

Do you guys not remember the 80 page long threads we had back in 2005 arguing who should be the #1 between Priest and LT, with the main argument in LT's favor being that you'd have to use your 5th round pick on LJ if you drafted Priest?

And I can't recall his exact ADP, but I'm pretty sure LJ was a 2nd rounder in dynasty leagues that year too. Opinions about LJ back then were similar to what they've been to Jonathan Stewart the last few years. He certainly was not "buried".


I just checked out the ADP from that year on MFL. Johnson's was 79.50 overall in 2005, and then he was the No. 2 pick in 2006. Same site, Foster was 70.52 last year. I remember him shooting up and being a 4th round pick by the normal drafting season, though. I bet you remember the same about LJ (though I don't). So it seems were arguing apples and apples here. Same situation, maybe LJ gets a slight nod in the original question based on the numbers above, but they're virtually identical.
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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby daullaz » Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:43 am

Using the ADP from MFL, I went back and looked at the top five picks in each year since 2000. Aside from the players that meet the original qualifier of rookie backs entering their second year, the two biggest jumps into the top five were Johnson and Foster.
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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby spodog » Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:58 am

daullaz wrote:Using the ADP from MFL, I went back and looked at the top five picks in each year since 2000. Aside from the players that meet the original qualifier of rookie backs entering their second year, the two biggest jumps into the top five were Johnson and Foster.


So I guess that is the answer, at least in the last decade.

daullaz - just for grins, can you check that same data for the QB position? Would be curious to see who the biggest jump at QB was as well.
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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby Instinctive » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:13 am

spodog wrote:
daullaz wrote:Using the ADP from MFL, I went back and looked at the top five picks in each year since 2000. Aside from the players that meet the original qualifier of rookie backs entering their second year, the two biggest jumps into the top five were Johnson and Foster.


So I guess that is the answer, at least in the last decade.

daullaz - just for grins, can you check that same data for the QB position? Would be curious to see who the biggest jump at QB was as well.


It's really not though, because going from undrafted to even the 4th round is a bigger jump than 5th round to top 5 picks.

Vick and Hillis both made larger jumps last season to this season than Foster or LJ.
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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby spodog » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:34 am

Instinctive wrote:
spodog wrote:
daullaz wrote:Using the ADP from MFL, I went back and looked at the top five picks in each year since 2000. Aside from the players that meet the original qualifier of rookie backs entering their second year, the two biggest jumps into the top five were Johnson and Foster.


So I guess that is the answer, at least in the last decade.

daullaz - just for grins, can you check that same data for the QB position? Would be curious to see who the biggest jump at QB was as well.


It's really not though, because going from undrafted to even the 4th round is a bigger jump than 5th round to top 5 picks.

Vick and Hillis both made larger jumps last season to this season than Foster or LJ.


My originally stated premise when I started this thread was that Vick had made the biggest leap ever, so in my response above I've continued to assume that Vick holds that #1 spot. Personally, I think Kurt Warner is probably in the #2 spot, but since his leap was from after the '98 season to after the '99 season, that is before the 2000 year cutoff in the data that daullaz is examining.

If that next tier is Hillis, then Foster, then LJ, then so be it.

Personally, I'm probably not as interested in trying to objectively rank these year over year leaps, but was simply looking to start a discussion about others who had made similar leaps like this, and if anyone had made a leap bigger than Vick. Still seems Vick's is likely the largest ever.
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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby Instinctive » Thu Jul 21, 2011 10:53 am

Brandon Lloyd last year to this year would also be larger than Foster or LJ. Undrafted to the 4th or so.
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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby daullaz » Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:53 pm

spodog wrote:
daullaz wrote:Using the ADP from MFL, I went back and looked at the top five picks in each year since 2000. Aside from the players that meet the original qualifier of rookie backs entering their second year, the two biggest jumps into the top five were Johnson and Foster.


So I guess that is the answer, at least in the last decade.

daullaz - just for grins, can you check that same data for the QB position? Would be curious to see who the biggest jump at QB was as well.


Daunte Culpepper was the only guy I saw that leaped into the top five from a relatively low raking in the previous season. I believe he was in the mid-50s one year, then fourth or fifth the next.
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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby Free Bagel » Fri Jul 22, 2011 11:52 pm

Using MFL ADP, Vick went from QB35 last year to QB2 this year.

Hard to find an exact match, but here are some comparables.

Hillis
RB67->RB13

Foster
RB26->RB1

LJ
RB30->RB2

Priest
RB26->RB5

Travis Henry
RB54->RB12

Horn
WR42->WR10

Rudi
RB(not in top 500)->RB14

Droughns
RB(not in top 500)->RB39
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Re: Biggest fantasy preseason ranking leap ever?

Postby mojoorising » Thu Jul 28, 2011 12:27 am

Gates made a huge leap a few years ago.... was going as a late round sleeper to the first tight end off the board the following year
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