Tricky Keeper Situation - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Draft, Trade, & Waiver Questions

Tricky Keeper Situation

Moderator: Football Moderators

Tricky Keeper Situation

Postby crimedoctor » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:19 am

I'm in a 14-team keeper league-with points scoring pretty standard. 4 pts for TD passes, 6 for rushing or receiving TD's. 1/2 points per reception.

Everybody's 1st and 2nd round picks from 2010 go back into the pool. I will be drafting out of the 9th spot, which gives me the 9th and 20th overall picks. I'm 99% certain to take the best available RB, .....and then probably a WR. Other owners are QB crazy in their draft strategy.

Owners can keep 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 of their 2010 final roster players. In keeping players, you must surrender your 3rd round pick, then 4th, etc. I'm going to snap up whoever looks best #1 and #2, ....and then surrender my 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th picks for four of the following from my 2010 final roster:

Hakeem Nicks-No brainer, ....no advice needed here

Peyton Hillis-Some might say no brainer, ....others are spooked by his pretty severe fade as the 2010 season wore on.

Mike Williams-Did I mention that this league will allow you to keep a player INDEFINITELY. This guy might end up being merely 18th best WR in 2011 (like he was in 2010), ....or he *could* be top 5. Either way, I see a potential superstar on the horizon somewhere around 2014. So, I guess he is a no brainer too.

Ahmad Bradshaw-If he gets hit by a bus, ....Brandon Jacobs is GOLD, ....or visa-versa. Just kidding, I'm not hoping for one of those things to happen, ....okay, maybe a little. Seriously, unless there is HUGE free agent news, both Bradshaw and Jacobs will be fine, top notch RBs, ....but neither will be in the same universe as Foster, Peterson, CJ, Charles, Rice...or even Mendenhall.

LaGarrett Blount-Intriguing upside, ....but the fact that he is a bit of a head case, in an offense that surprised everybody in 2010, and may get battered around by defenses who have watched a lot of his game films, ....weight that against his upside. Tough call.

Joe Flacco-All the preliminary draft lists say NO WAY. But I'm telling you, ....these other owners are QB goofy. If I don't claim Flacco, trust me, somewhere between 12 and 15 QB's will be gone when it comes to my 7th round pick. I am a Ravens fan, ....and I view Flacco as an EXCELLENT QB, .....for the Ravens, .....but a mediocre FANTASY QB, with *some* upside.

I also have rights to Felix Jones, James Starks, Sydney Rice, and Jacoby Ford (I know, .....niiiiiiiice), but there's no way any of them can crack the Top 4 priority list.

So, who would you keep?
crimedoctor
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 48
Joined: 22 Feb 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Tricky Keeper Situation

Postby Indibuck » Thu Jul 14, 2011 10:31 am

crimedoctor wrote:I'm in a 14-team keeper league-with points scoring pretty standard. 4 pts for TD passes, 6 for rushing or receiving TD's. 1/2 points per reception.

Everybody's 1st and 2nd round picks from 2010 go back into the pool. I will be drafting out of the 9th spot, which gives me the 9th and 20th overall picks. I'm 99% certain to take the best available RB, .....and then probably a WR. Other owners are QB crazy in their draft strategy.

Owners can keep 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 of their 2010 final roster players. In keeping players, you must surrender your 3rd round pick, then 4th, etc. I'm going to snap up whoever looks best #1 and #2, ....and then surrender my 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th picks for four of the following from my 2010 final roster:

Hakeem Nicks-No brainer, ....no advice needed here

Peyton Hillis-Some might say no brainer, ....others are spooked by his pretty severe fade as the 2010 season wore on.

Mike Williams-Did I mention that this league will allow you to keep a player INDEFINITELY. This guy might end up being merely 18th best WR in 2011 (like he was in 2010), ....or he *could* be top 5. Either way, I see a potential superstar on the horizon somewhere around 2014. So, I guess he is a no brainer too.

Ahmad Bradshaw-If he gets hit by a bus, ....Brandon Jacobs is GOLD, ....or visa-versa. Just kidding, I'm not hoping for one of those things to happen, ....okay, maybe a little. Seriously, unless there is HUGE free agent news, both Bradshaw and Jacobs will be fine, top notch RBs, ....but neither will be in the same universe as Foster, Peterson, CJ, Charles, Rice...or even Mendenhall.

LaGarrett Blount-Intriguing upside, ....but the fact that he is a bit of a head case, in an offense that surprised everybody in 2010, and may get battered around by defenses who have watched a lot of his game films, ....weight that against his upside. Tough call.

Joe Flacco-All the preliminary draft lists say NO WAY. But I'm telling you, ....these other owners are QB goofy. If I don't claim Flacco, trust me, somewhere between 12 and 15 QB's will be gone when it comes to my 7th round pick. I am a Ravens fan, ....and I view Flacco as an EXCELLENT QB, .....for the Ravens, .....but a mediocre FANTASY QB, with *some* upside.

I also have rights to Felix Jones, James Starks, Sydney Rice, and Jacoby Ford (I know, .....niiiiiiiice), but there's no way any of them can crack the Top 4 priority list.

So, who would you keep?



First off, welcome to the Cafe. I think you'll find we have a good group of folks willing to help out. I hope you stick around and maybe help some people with their roster questions in return.

On to your roster...

Nicks and Mike Williams are no-brainers and should be the core of your team for many years to come. So there's your 3rd and 4th-round picks.

I would also keep Hillis in lieu of a 5th round pick. Personally, I don't think he will recapture his 2010 numbers, but the value is there to keep him. If you feel like I do about his future, he makes a good sell-high candidate.

For your last spot, I think either Blount or Bradshaw is excellent value for a 6th round pick. I like Bradshaw over Blount.


This sets you up pretty well.... your 1.09 pick should indeed be best available RB. With your 2nd round pick, I would take best available player, regardless of position... WR makes sense there but don't pigeonhole yourself into thinking you MUST take one there if there is exceptional value at RB or even QB.

Good luck! ;-D
Indibuck
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionLucky Ladders ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 4455
(Past Year: 173)
Joined: 8 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Fort Rain

Re: Tricky Keeper Situation

Postby m16a » Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:09 am

Indibuck wrote:
First off, welcome to the Cafe. I think you'll find we have a good group of folks willing to help out. I hope you stick around and maybe help some people with their roster questions in return.

On to your roster...

Nicks and Mike Williams are no-brainers and should be the core of your team for many years to come. So there's your 3rd and 4th-round picks.

I would also keep Hillis in lieu of a 5th round pick. Personally, I don't think he will recapture his 2010 numbers, but the value is there to keep him. If you feel like I do about his future, he makes a good sell-high candidate.

For your last spot, I think either Blount or Bradshaw is excellent value for a 6th round pick. I like Bradshaw over Blount.


This sets you up pretty well.... your 1.09 pick should indeed be best available RB. With your 2nd round pick, I would take best available player, regardless of position... WR makes sense there but don't pigeonhole yourself into thinking you MUST take one there if there is exceptional value at RB or even QB.

Good luck! ;-D


Welcome to the cafe. We hope you stick around and become a great part of this fine community. ;-D

As for your keeper situation, indi has summed things up marvelously. I agree on almost all counts, except I personally prefer Blount over Bradshaw as a long term keeper. Bradshaw probably has more immediate value in a ppr. I find them rather interchangeable, and the newest cafe rankings seem to agree. The ADPs are close to, Bradshaw at 3.11, Blount at 4.02. I like Blount. Good luck out there.
Image
Props to Deluxe for the sig
There is nothing more frightening than ignorance in action.
- Goethe
m16a
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 5361
(Past Year: 38)
Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Somewhere in PA

Re: Tricky Keeper Situation

Postby LMack » Thu Jul 14, 2011 11:36 am

+1 to Nicks, Buc Williams, and Hillis.

I'm a little nervous about keeping Ahmad Bradshaw for two major reasons. The first is the fact that head coach Tom Coughlin said that they plan to increased Brandon Jacobs' workload. HC Coughlin noted that Jacobs had "a lot of gas in the tank", and that the 276/147 carry split in favor of Bradshaw might not have been ideal. As much as I hate RBBCs, the Giants' coach might be right. Brandon Jacobs ran for a bruising 5.6 yards per carry. With Bradshaw's fumble problems (7 last year), I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants evened the split of carries. If this was full point per reception, it would be easier to dismiss the potential of Jacobs poaching, but .5 makes it something worth considering.

The second factor I'd consider about Ahamad Bradshaw is the fact that he is a set to be a free agent. If the Giants resign him, then this point is completely moot. But there is a small chance that he lands in an unfavorable spot. It seems like he will stay in New York, but it just makes me a bit apprehensive.

LeGarrette Blount is set to be a featured back by the Tampa Bay Bucs. Blount won't play many passing downs, but will be a Michael Turner like bell-cow. He is a physical back, and although he has had some issues he is very talented.

The choice between Blount and Bradshaw is a tough one. I'd give a slight edge to Blount, but its close IMO.
Image
LMack
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe Musketeer
Posts: 1871
(Past Year: 32)
Joined: 15 May 2009
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Straight Cash Homey

Re: Tricky Keeper Situation

Postby u_fig_eater » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:15 pm

I'd keep Nicks, Hillis, MIke Williams, and Blount. I think Bradshaw regresses into a 3rd down role. There's no guarantee he even returns to the Giants. Blount appears to be the clear-cut feature back.
Ball Breaker Keeper League: Beast Mode 8-5 #2 seed
u_fig_eater
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 913
Joined: 6 Mar 2006
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Tricky Keeper Situation

Postby crimedoctor » Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:26 pm

Great answers everybody. I have been doing fantasy NFL and MLB for a few decades now, and recent years had me at a different forum site. Those guys 'over there' were just a bit too opinionated and confrontational, ....so it's refreshing to get straight answers with the absence of insults.

Back to the topic, ....I was pretty much leaning Nicks, Williams, ....plus a reluctant Peyton Hillis pick. I think my best bet is to nab Hillis and MAKE SURE I get Hardesty with a somewhat late round flyer. I get the feeling that the Browns might develop an RBBC-ish system with those two guys.

Then comes the TRICKIEST call, ....Ahmad v. Blount. I posted my question thinking Ahmad, ....with Blount as a long shot. But the more I think about the 'committee' we might all see with Hillis/Hardesty, ...the more I dread the possibility of ANOTHER RBBC in New York as well. My best bet is to push the decision until the 11th hour (the commish promises to give owners until just a few days before the draft to decide keepers). Maybe the August news flashes on Ahmad v. Blount will make things clear.

Yes, these other owners are a LOCK to scarf up Aaron Rodgers, Brees, Manning, Brady, etc. with blinding speed. After I get either Jamal Charles, Rice, or Mendenhalll at 1.9, ....I'm guessing that ANY QB worth beans will be either GONE by early 2nd round, ...or will be on somebody's keeper list. Since I will almost certainly go RB at 1.9, plus Hillis, plus Ahmad or Blount, ....it will be crazy to add a 4th RB that early. The only other option will be WR.

Again, thanks for your thoughts.
crimedoctor
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 48
Joined: 22 Feb 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Tricky Keeper Situation

Postby Venom » Thu Jul 14, 2011 8:42 pm

I think everyone else is in agreement with the first 3...

Nicks, Williams and Hillis are easily worth the picks in their respective rounds. Keep those. I like the idea of grabbing your Hillis cuff as well.

As for the final spot, it is definitely between Bradshaw and Blount. I think they are both easily worth a 6th round pick.

Personally I would go with Blount. I think as far as a RBBC situation goes Blount has less competition than Bradshaw...if he stays in NY. Now if he signs with a team like say...Miami or a similar team without a clear cut starter...that could change things.

I would wait until free agency is hashed out and make my decision then. Too many what ifs in such a close call ;-D
Venom
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 1845
(Past Year: 47)
Joined: 16 Sep 2007
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Cleveland, OH-IO

Re: Tricky Keeper Situation

Postby bungle613 » Sat Jul 16, 2011 4:05 pm

Are you allowed to trade prior to the start of the draft?

As always, if you can, I will say package a 2 for 1 and get elite. THere should be some team willing to take Hillis and BLount for say Ray Rice or whomever. Look for the weaker teams and make a deal.
Image
Image
bungle613
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 10988
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 31 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: straight ahead, hang a left, look down


Return to Draft, Trade, & Waiver Questions

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 16:12 hours
(and 41 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact