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Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

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Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby TheMaizeAndBlue » Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:03 pm

Hey guys, been a while. The questions is as the topic line suggests, would you rather have Steven Jackson or Matt Forte for next year?

My league uses a 0.5 PPR system, so I'll be making my statements with that in mind, but feel free to comment on their relative value in traditional and full PPR leagues as well.

The rankings have Jackson ahead almost across the board, though it's fairly close. However, there are a few points in favor of Matt Forte.

1) The two players put up very similar point totals in 2010, with Forte actually holding the slight edge on Jackson (199 to 182 in ESPN standard scoring) even though Forte actually played the more difficult run schedule. (Based on 2010 pre-season ranking, didn't have time to analyze the data myself)

2) Forte has the far easier run schedule this year. (according to FFtoolbox, http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm?type=d ) 6 vs. 21 in terms of ease of schedule for RBs is a pretty significant difference!

3) Forte is less likely to break down. Both of these players will cost you a pretty high draft pick, so most teams won't be able to afford their second round RB going down with injury. Steven Jackson has the most touches of any RB in the last five season combined, and has had injury problems in the past. Forte on the other hand, has yet to miss a game in the NFL. Given that it's not really possible to win your league in the first few rounds, but it's certainly possible to lose it, Forte seems the much safer pick.

So my questions is, despite Forte being more productive last season, having an easier schedule, and being less of an injury risk, why is he being drafted after Jackson? Are drafters counting on Sam Bradford's emergence leading to a higher TD total for Jackson? Please leave comments below to debate and discuss!
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Re: Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby moochman » Fri Jul 15, 2011 6:21 pm

Interesting question. My first thought is SJax due to an up and coming O and being an intregal part of that O. Forte laid and egg a couple years ago, and S Jax has been a better model of consistancy. I do like Forte better simply because he will produce comparable stats and is a little cheaper.
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Re: Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby u_fig_eater » Sat Jul 16, 2011 7:16 am

I have SJax over Forte. It comes down to the injury risk, as you pointed out. Assuming they both stay healthy, I think SJax outproduces Forte. I will also say that I think Forte will do very well this year. To answer your question, I agree that Forte is the safer pick. But I don't know who has the better "expected value," again, since IF he stays healthy, SJax will do better IMO.
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Re: Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby m16a » Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:07 am

Forte and Jackson are two guys I both like. Forte has been underestimated since he stepped into the league, yet he keeps producing and keeps doin well. SJax is an example of how an RB should play. Team oriented, strong runner, contributes in the passing game (and he's always slaughtered me when I play against him in Madden :-b ) and just an all around good player. I think he'll do better at season's end, but not by much. Forte is a safer pick, less bust potential, but also a lower ceiling. Jackson might have a higher ceiling, but he's always that injury risk and the risk of struggle due to a young QB. In the end, I think SJax finishes slightly ahead of Forte, but maybe misses two or three games. They'll stay true to the rankings, and depending on my team, I'd probably rather have Forte. If SJax drops to say the 3rd or even early 4th, I'm giving him a shot on value.
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Re: Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby LMack » Sat Jul 16, 2011 10:29 am

My reservation with Steven Jackson is Josh McDaniels. The St. Louis offense may be more productive with Josh McD schemes, but I'm not sure that will mean more production out of Jackson. But McDaniels never had a chance to work with a back of Jackson's caliber, either.
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Re: Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby Guru13 » Sat Jul 16, 2011 1:29 pm

LMack wrote:My reservation with Steven Jackson is Josh McDaniels. The St. Louis offense may be more productive with Josh McD schemes, but I'm not sure that will mean more production out of Jackson. But McDaniels never had a chance to work with a back of Jackson's caliber, either.

This could be the first season in a very long time that Jackson isn't almost the sole focus of the defense. Hopefully it will open things up for him a bit.
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Re: Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby LS2throwed » Sat Jul 16, 2011 5:25 pm

I think it's because Steven Jackson has a pretty good track record for owners to go off of, he's very consistent. I just would like to see him score more TD's though. I would like to see more 2006 vintage Steven Jackson though, and I think alot of people think he has that in him this season.
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Re: Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby murphysxm » Sat Jul 16, 2011 6:06 pm

It's closer than I thought at first glance, but I'd still lean towards Jackson. I trust him more and he has a lower basement. That being said, this is the last year I draft him as a rb #1
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Re: Steven Jackson or Matt Forte?

Postby J Per » Sun Jul 17, 2011 10:19 pm

I begrudgingly like Forte over Jackson. Jackson is a freak of a human being but he has had to play through injuries for the past couple seasons and I think it might catch up to him. Of course Bradford will be better, but RB's don't exactly thrive in McD's system.

Nonetheless, I'm taking Forte because of his potential, not Jackson's downfalls. Forte had his bad season while playing with an injury, his other two while playing healthy were great. Forte certainly took advantage of screens that were thrown his way and I feel like he will be better in his second season with Mike Martz.
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