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Re: RB Rankings

Postby Indibuck » Wed Jul 20, 2011 10:22 am

Instinctive wrote:There was so much hate on Forte going into last year (by me, especially) that people are still undervaluing him.

He's got to be the pick here. And Moreno isn't close to Forte or Gore. Not even within two tiers, IMO.


Forte's on a better offense, with a better OC, has great receiving ability (so his yardage is relatively stable game to game) and lacks an injury history. I'm a huge part of the "can't predict an injury" crowd, but Gore's got an extensive history there. SFO has crap at QB. Chicago, on the other hand, has a very solid, young offense that grew last year and should grow again this year.


Forte all the way. He's undervalued this year.



Yes, but you only tell part of the story here.

1. The SF O-line >>> CHI O-line. Not that the SF line is elite... but the two early investments in their OL last year will continue to pay dividends this year. And, yes, the Bears drafted Gabe Carimi this year... but he's only one guy, and rookies at all positions this year will be hard pressed to perform well with an abbreviated preseason schedule. The Bears line was horrrrrrrrrrrrible last year and needs time (and likely, more talent) to improve.

2. Divisions. If you were a RB, what defenses would you like to see twice? The NFC West or the NFC Central? Yeah, me too.

3. ADP. Gore's current ADP (mockdraftcentral.com) is 15.47. Forte's ADP is 20.57. The consensus views Gore as a fringe starting RB, and Forte as an RB2. The consensus isn't always right... but the consensus values Gore more than Forte.
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby Indibuck » Wed Jul 20, 2011 10:27 am

Indibuck wrote:
Instinctive wrote:There was so much hate on Forte going into last year (by me, especially) that people are still undervaluing him.

He's got to be the pick here. And Moreno isn't close to Forte or Gore. Not even within two tiers, IMO.


Forte's on a better offense, with a better OC, has great receiving ability (so his yardage is relatively stable game to game) and lacks an injury history. I'm a huge part of the "can't predict an injury" crowd, but Gore's got an extensive history there. SFO has crap at QB. Chicago, on the other hand, has a very solid, young offense that grew last year and should grow again this year.


Forte all the way. He's undervalued this year.



Yes, but you only tell part of the story here.

1. The SF O-line >>> CHI O-line. Not that the SF line is elite... but the two early investments in their OL last year will continue to pay dividends this year. And, yes, the Bears drafted Gabe Carimi this year... but he's only one guy, and rookies at all positions this year will be hard pressed to perform well with an abbreviated preseason schedule. The Bears line was horrrrrrrrrrrrible last year and needs time (and likely, more talent) to improve.

2. Divisions. If you were a RB, what defenses would you like to see twice? The NFC West or the NFC Central? Yeah, me too.

3. ADP. Gore's current ADP (mockdraftcentral.com) is 15.47. Forte's ADP is 20.57. The consensus views Gore as a fringe starting RB, and Forte as an RB2. The consensus isn't always right... but the consensus values Gore more than Forte.


4. CHI ranked 32nd in passing attempts last year. Let that sink in for a moment. A Mike Martz offense finished dead last in pass attempts. I expect CHI to bring in at least one legit WR for Cutler to go along with Knox/Hester/Bennett. Last year was an abberation. You have to expect that passing attempts will rise in 2011 -- that means less carries for the RBs.

5. Forte was inefficient near the goal line in 2010 and was swapped out for an equally inefficient Chester Taylor. As of this second, Taylor is still on the Bears roster and in the mix for at least goal line carries.
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby Instinctive » Wed Jul 20, 2011 10:47 am

3. I know the consensus values Gore more. I believe that falls under the "I see Forte being undervalued" category.

4. And Forte is a top pass catching back - so more pass attempts isn't exactly a bad thing...



We can make a little side bet of some sort if you wish. Forte outscores Gore on the year. How much you want to put down on that?
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby Indibuck » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:21 pm

Instinctive wrote:3. I know the consensus values Gore more. I believe that falls under the "I see Forte being undervalued" category.

4. And Forte is a top pass catching back - so more pass attempts isn't exactly a bad thing...



We can make a little side bet of some sort if you wish. Forte outscores Gore on the year. How much you want to put down on that?



4. Yes Forte is a top receiving back... but that only means he will see a percentage of the higher number of pass attempts... implying his overall touches may still go down. By the way... Gore is no slouch as a receiving option, either -- I expect that Gore will see a fair number of targets in the passing game.

For what it's worth... I think that debate is good. It can be constructive and helpful to other owners who are trying to figure out their player rankings as we approach the season. I get the sense that you are taking this personally, though... I sincerely hope you are not and that you see my last two posts for what they are -- a debate.
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby Instinctive » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:25 pm

Indibuck wrote:
Instinctive wrote:3. I know the consensus values Gore more. I believe that falls under the "I see Forte being undervalued" category.

4. And Forte is a top pass catching back - so more pass attempts isn't exactly a bad thing...



We can make a little side bet of some sort if you wish. Forte outscores Gore on the year. How much you want to put down on that?



4. Yes Forte is a top receiving back... but that only means he will see a percentage of the higher number of pass attempts... implying his overall touches may still go down. By the way... Gore is no slouch as a receiving option, either -- I expect that Gore will see a fair number of targets in the passing game.

For what it's worth... I think that debate is good. It can be constructive and helpful to other owners who are trying to figure out their player rankings as we approach the season. I get the sense that you are taking this personally, though... I sincerely hope you are not and that you see my last two posts for what they are -- a debate.


Nothing personal involved. I just think the thread is steering the guy to a poor decision. Gore's at the wrong age, coming off the wrong type of injury, on the wrong team at the wrong time.

No bet then? Not that confident?
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby Indibuck » Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:28 pm

Instinctive wrote:
Nothing personal involved. I just think the thread is steering the guy to a poor decision. Gore's at the wrong age, coming off the wrong type of injury, on the wrong team at the wrong time.

No bet then? Not that confident?



Tell ya what -- if Forte does outscore Gore, you can post a big "I told you so" post on this forum, and I will tell you how right you were and how wrong I was, and you can hold it over me for as long as you wish. If Gore beats Forte, I won't do anything at all.
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby Instinctive » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:33 pm

Indibuck wrote:
Instinctive wrote:
Nothing personal involved. I just think the thread is steering the guy to a poor decision. Gore's at the wrong age, coming off the wrong type of injury, on the wrong team at the wrong time.

No bet then? Not that confident?



Tell ya what -- if Forte does outscore Gore, you can post a big "I told you so" post on this forum, and I will tell you how right you were and how wrong I was, and you can hold it over me for as long as you wish. If Gore beats Forte, I won't do anything at all.


Lol ok. That's what I thought.
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby thriftyrocker » Wed Jul 20, 2011 2:43 pm

Gore in redraft. Just take Kendall Hunter in rd 13 or 14 to secure your investment. I hate the risk too but he has more value. If I was stuck with Gore at RB1, I'd trade him pretty easily around W3 if I could get "2011 Arian Foster" or even "2011 Darren Mcfadden" for him.
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby thebigsmooth » Sat Jul 23, 2011 8:19 am

Indibuck wrote:Gore

Forte






Moreno


regardless of format.

Great reply. Dead on!
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Re: RB Rankings

Postby TexasBornCowboysFan » Sat Jul 23, 2011 12:10 pm

Based on Talent
Gore
Forte
Moreno

Based on Value
Moreno
Forte
Gore

Gore RB1
Forte RB2
Moreno RB3

This year is the year for Moreno "to put up or shut up". If Denver doesn't sign another RB in FA then Moreno is a RB2.
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