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Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

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Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Lucky7 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:37 am

I'm debating whom to keep in my standard scoring, NON-PPR league.
Each keeper moves up 2 draft rounds every year.
I have 7th pick in 10 team league.
My choices are TWO of the following:
Foster (costs me my 2d round pick = pick 14 overall; can't keep him next year)
Chris Johnson (costs me my 3d round pick = pick 27 overall; can keep next year as my 1st round pick)
Miles Austin (costs me 13th round pick)
Blount (costs me my 15th round pick)
NOTE: I cannot keep Foster AND CJ. I can only keep 1 of them.

The top RBs who would be left after keepers will be:
ADP
Foster or CJ
Rice
MJD
Gore
SJax
DMC
Forte

I would be guaranteed one of the above (prob one of SJax, DMC, Forte) at the 7th pick, if I go RB there.
None of the top WRs will be kept (except Austin perhaps).

Which 2 would you keep?

Thanks and leave a link.
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Instinctive » Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:55 am

I'm probably going to keep Chris Johnson for a 3rd.


I'm definitely keeping Austin at his price. Insane value to get him in the double digit rounds.



The only issue you have is that it might actually be better to keep Blount over CJ4.24: As a 15th rounder, that's basically a late flier pick who's your RB2. You said you get one of those RB1s with the 7th pick no matter what, and my thoughts are that you'll prefer Blount and your 3rd round pick to CJ4.24 and your 15th round pick when all is said and done.
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:11 pm

Johnson for a round cheaper is a no-brainer over Foster IMO. After that, I'd lean towards Austin, who's a bargain for a 13th rounder. That way you have RB1 and (at least borderline) WR1 and can take best RB available at 1.07.

Is the draft serpentine? If so, I'm sure there'll be substantial WR depth left six picks later and you'd have a nice RB-RB-WR-WR start ;-D
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Indibuck » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:19 pm

All 4 players offer excellent value.

I think Chris Johnson and Miles Austin are your guys. CJ for a third (with an option to keep him for 2012) is better than Foster's scenario. Blount for a late round pick is intriguing, but I think you have to go with Austin here, a legit WR1 for basically a throwaway pick. Then look to go either RB/WR or WR/RB in the first two rounds, and you are in pretty good shape.

Good luck.
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Instinctive » Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:21 pm

WaCougMBS wrote:Johnson for a round cheaper is a no-brainer over Foster IMO. After that, I'd lean towards Austin, who's a bargain for a 13th rounder. That way you have RB1 and (at least borderline) WR1 and can take best RB available at 1.07.

Is the draft serpentine? If so, I'm sure there'll be substantial WR depth left six picks later and you'd have a nice RB-RB-WR-WR start ;-D


I'm still intrigued by Blount in the 15th. You can still go RB in the 1st round and have an elite guy, Blount is easily a RB2, and you can have another top 5 receiver as well in the 2nd, most likely.

Not to mention 7th pick is also the 14th, and there's a decent chance you can get another top RB there anyway. One thing is that in a 10 team, the value of an elite QB is very depressed, so you can wait on QB for a while and try to get one late that may be keeper worthy next year.
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Lucky7 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 1:36 pm

WaCougMBS wrote:Johnson for a round cheaper is a no-brainer over Foster IMO. After that, I'd lean towards Austin, who's a bargain for a 13th rounder. That way you have RB1 and (at least borderline) WR1 and can take best RB available at 1.07.

Is the draft serpentine? If so, I'm sure there'll be substantial WR depth left six picks later and you'd have a nice RB-RB-WR-WR start ;-D


Thanks for your input. My thinking as well. Yes, it is a serpentine draft. Unless someone like Gore or MJD fall to me at 1.07, which I doubt, I would likely take a top 3 WR at 1.07 like AJ, Calvin or Roddy and then grab a RB at 2.04 like Forte or Blount. Not in love with SJax or DMC, though I think each could be good.
Chris Johnson, Blount, Calvin and Austin would be a good foundation.
(Although Chris Johnson, SJax, Wayne, Austin isn't too bad either come to think about it)
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Instinctive » Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:15 pm

Lucky7 wrote:
WaCougMBS wrote:Johnson for a round cheaper is a no-brainer over Foster IMO. After that, I'd lean towards Austin, who's a bargain for a 13th rounder. That way you have RB1 and (at least borderline) WR1 and can take best RB available at 1.07.

Is the draft serpentine? If so, I'm sure there'll be substantial WR depth left six picks later and you'd have a nice RB-RB-WR-WR start ;-D


Thanks for your input. My thinking as well. Yes, it is a serpentine draft. Unless someone like Gore or MJD fall to me at 1.07, which I doubt, I would likely take a top 3 WR at 1.07 like AJ, Calvin or Roddy and then grab a RB at 2.04 like Forte or Blount. Not in love with SJax or DMC, though I think each could be good.
Chris Johnson, Blount, Calvin and Austin would be a good foundation.
(Although Chris Johnson, SJax, Wayne, Austin isn't too bad either come to think about it)


What about DMC, Fitz, 3rd rounder...and Blount and Austin? What receivers are going to be available at 2.04? I still think that 3rd rounder and Blount is worth more than 15th rounder and Chris Johnson, if only because while Johnson is great value in the 3rd, Blount in the 15th is even better.

Think about it: you yourself are thinking about Blount at 2.04. That's thirteen rounds earlier than you could have him. Not to mention that means you can keep him for a 13th next year...an 11th the next...a 9th after that...and all those years he probably had a 1st/2nd round ADP
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:27 pm

Too much future planning IMO. Value is important and often key in these decisions, but I can't turn down top-2 talent/production for a 2-round discount. Valid points by Instinctive and not the worst moves you could make, but I'm all for winning now in a keep 2 league instead of locking up a lottery ticket who could become expendable in another year.

No way I'd rather have DMC, Blount, Fitz, Austin and a 3rd when compared to Johnson, DMC, Austin, 2nd (best WR available) and so on. Johnson is much more valuable than Blount, moreso than the difference between Fitz and who you'll get at 2.04 (could very well be him or someone similar anyway), and with a foundation of those 4 guys I'm not too worried about missing a 3rd rounder in a 10-team league.

You could go either way, and we're both arguing preference here with an angle of value, but I'd rather have the top-heavy Johnson/DMC (or similar)/Austin/best WR available side ;-D
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Lucky7 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 2:27 pm

Instinctive wrote:What about DMC, Fitz, 3rd rounder...and Blount and Austin? What receivers are going to be available at 2.04? I still think that 3rd rounder and Blount is worth more than 15th rounder and Chris Johnson, if only because while Johnson is great value in the 3rd, Blount in the 15th is even better.

Think about it: you yourself are thinking about Blount at 2.04. That's thirteen rounds earlier than you could have him. Not to mention that means you can keep him for a 13th next year...an 11th the next...a 9th after that...and all those years he probably had a 1st/2nd round ADP


I hear you, and it's an intriguing thought, but the idea of spearheading my team with the likes of:
DMC+Blount+Fitz+Austin+ maybe someone like Moreno or Benson in round 3 is very risky.

CJ+DMC+Fitz+Austin+15th round pick seems like a more solid base. I have plenty of rounds left to fill in WR/RB depth. 3d round picks, especially RBs are not real 3d round picks because so many RBs are kept.

The keeper bonus for Blount is also tempting, but I'm not sure that tips the scales.
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Instinctive » Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:19 pm

Lucky7 wrote:
Instinctive wrote:What about DMC, Fitz, 3rd rounder...and Blount and Austin? What receivers are going to be available at 2.04? I still think that 3rd rounder and Blount is worth more than 15th rounder and Chris Johnson, if only because while Johnson is great value in the 3rd, Blount in the 15th is even better.

Think about it: you yourself are thinking about Blount at 2.04. That's thirteen rounds earlier than you could have him. Not to mention that means you can keep him for a 13th next year...an 11th the next...a 9th after that...and all those years he probably had a 1st/2nd round ADP


I hear you, and it's an intriguing thought, but the idea of spearheading my team with the likes of:
DMC+Blount+Fitz+Austin+ maybe someone like Moreno or Benson in round 3 is very risky.

CJ+DMC+Fitz+Austin+15th round pick seems like a more solid base. I have plenty of rounds left to fill in WR/RB depth. 3d round picks, especially RBs are not real 3d round picks because so many RBs are kept.

The keeper bonus for Blount is also tempting, but I'm not sure that tips the scales.


The best stuff left for you in round 3 will be Moreno or Benson? In my experience, a 2 keeper with your draft pick rules, round 3 is about equal to round 4 in a normal redraft.

Did I miss your starting lineup, or did you not list it?
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