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Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Lucky7 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:46 pm

Instinctive wrote:The best stuff left for you in round 3 will be Moreno or Benson? In my experience, a 2 keeper with your draft pick rules, round 3 is about equal to round 4 in a normal redraft.

Did I miss your starting lineup, or did you not list it?


RBs kept will likely be:
CJ, Charles, McCoy, Mendy, Turner, Hillis, Greene, Grant, Hightower, Torain, Tolbert.

I have pick 3.07, which is pick 27 overall. A fair number of the remaining RBs should go in the first 3 rounds. Last year, 12 RBs were picked before pick 27, not counting keepers. So, if you take the RBs rankings compiled by Ironman, the top 12 non-keepers are Foster, AP, Rice, MJD, DMC, SJax, Gore, Forte, Mathews, Bradshaw, Blount, DWill. The next 2 non-keeper RBs on Ironman's rankings are Moreno and Benson (ranked RB 20 and 21, respectively).

My lineup is:
QB
RB, RB
WR, WR
Flex (RB/WR)
TE
K
+ 8 bench spots.
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Shark1225 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:14 pm

I 'd go CJ and Blount then draft some great wideouts. You would be set with a RB1, RB2, WR1, and WR2 by the time the second round is done.
QB: BREES, Cutler
RB: TURNER, MCGAHEE, R. JENNINGS, Leshoure, D. Williams, Hillman, Hunter, Dwyer
WR: CRUZ, GARCON, Amendola, Edwards, D. Baldwin
TE: GRAHAM
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:17 pm

Shark1225 wrote:I 'd go CJ and Blount then draft some great wideouts. You would be set with a RB1, RB2, WR1, and WR2 by the time the second round is done.


Not trying to be glib, but that also happens if he keeps CJ and Austin and drafts RB-WR at 1.07 and 2.04 :-?
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Instinctive » Tue Aug 02, 2011 8:47 pm

I actually think Blount is the most obvious guy.

I'd be going Blount and CJ4.24 or Blount and Austin. Not sure if it is better to do the former and take 2 wideouts right away, or do the latter and take RB then WR.


Then again, the Blount/Austin may be slightly worse for this year, but it's going to be way better for future years to be keeping them that late.
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:14 pm

Instinctive wrote:I actually think Blount is the most obvious guy.

I'd be going Blount and CJ4.24 or Blount and Austin. Not sure if it is better to do the former and take 2 wideouts right away, or do the latter and take RB then WR.


Then again, the Blount/Austin may be slightly worse for this year, but it's going to be way better for future years to be keeping them that late.


Except it's not a dynasty. Why not win this year and go on from there? With only 2 keepers, as long as you draft pretty well you're always going to have some crazy perceived value from the 8th-15th rounds, and you can easily dump Johnson next year if you don't want to sacrifice your third-rounder. If this was a keep-5 or keep-8 I'd pretty much be on board with your overarching theory, but I think you're looking way too far down the road for a keep-2 when this guy can have a top-2 player for a 3rd-rounder and a top-12 WR for what we both agree is absolutely dirt cheap.

I don't want to gamble on a dream of Blount not being a flash in the pan and having his act turned around on and off the field to make the kind of committment you're suggesting, and IMO it's as simple as that :-?
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Instinctive » Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:50 pm

Considering his league rules - RBs will be much more valuable than WRs anyway, and Blount at that spot is way better than Austin at his spot (which is already awesome value).

And lol @ the media driven "turning his act around" - one guy said something he shouldn't have, and Blount shouldn't have hit him...but he's never done anything else. He's not Mike Williams or anything...


Cj and Blount is probably what I would do - his league is basically Zealots scoring, and RBs will be king. The ability to come out of the first with something like DMC/CJ4.24/Blount would be quite the coup.

RBs score significantly better than wideouts with their scoring setup, and you also have the ability to start more RBs than receivers. Blount is a drastically better choice - now and in the future. WRs like Austin are a dime a dozen in this league, especially considering it is only ten teams and you only start 2 if you do it right. That's 20 wideouts that should be starting when a typical standard league will be 12 by 3 - 36 total wideouts. In that scenario, you're right.

But when you should be starting 3 RBs, you have short benches, and you only need 2 WRs, and deep threats become more valuable than high catch guys (non-PPR) - taking a 2nd round RB in the 15th over a 3rd round receiver in the 13th.

His league setup way devalues receivers and makes top RBs that much more important. I'd almost say he ought to keep Foster and CJ, if we're really going to go into the "just take it one year at a time" mentality. You'd be getting 2 top 3 picks AND your 1st round pick.

Actually, that might be my answer now. How can you not start with Foster, CJ4.24, and a guy like DMC in a league where you definitely want to be starting 3 RBs every week?
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Lucky7 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:09 pm

I appreciate all your thoughts, but as I mentioned in my original post, I can't keep both CJ and Foster. If I could, I wouldn't have needed to post! That would be a no brainer. I'm not sure I would call Austin a dime a dozen wr, but I do agree that the issue cOmes down to whether to keep Austin or Blount. I'm leaning Austin because he's shown tremendous upside when both he and romo are healthy. It's a close call tho. I may still grab Blount at 2.07. Also, I am playing much more for this year, with an eye to the future if a decision comes down to a close call between two Players. I wouldn't keep Blount over CJ just because of my ability to hold onto Blount in the future.
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:10 pm

You know what, I have to change my stance slightly because I missed the post about the roster requirements and I had in my head it was 2 RBs and 3 WRs and not 2-2 and a flex. In that case I would also say that Blount is a better keep than Austin, as you'll likely be able to get at least one fringe WR1 like him at some point anyway.

That leaves me at Blount and CJ until I start reading Instinctive's idea and in sticking with my overriding theory I, too have to push for the win now strategy I've been doing all along - I got a bit side tracked on this one and have to admit my mistake - shoot for the moon with two top-3 backs and draft the best RB you can get in the 1st as well. Then you can calmly sit it out until the 4th and shoot for either WR-WR-QB (in some order), or WR-TE-QB, or something similar.

Winning in the future of a keep 2 is no given, and since you can keep Johnson and some later draft pick next year, you'll still be in better shape than you could be going another direction.

Why not shoot for the moon when you have arguably Nos. 1 and 2 already locked up? ;-D
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby WaCougMBS » Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:10 pm

Lucky7 wrote:I appreciate all your thoughts, but as I mentioned in my original post, I can't keep both CJ and Foster. If I could, I wouldn't have needed to post! That would be a no brainer. I'm not sure I would call Austin a dime a dozen wr, but I do agree that the issue cOmes down to whether to keep Austin or Blount. I'm leaning Austin because he's shown tremendous upside when both he and romo are healthy. It's a close call tho. I may still grab Blount at 2.07. Also, I am playing much more for this year, with an eye to the future if a decision comes down to a close call between two Players. I wouldn't keep Blount over CJ just because of my ability to hold onto Blount in the future.


Why can't you keep both again?

I knew something got me off that track, I just didn't remember what O:-)

I still don't get it though :-S
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Re: Tough Keeper Choices (I'll help you)

Postby Lucky7 » Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:22 pm

We can only keep up to one player drafted in the first 8 rounds. It opens up the draft a bit more. My concern about keeping two rbs is it hamstrings me a little in the first two rounds if a rb happens to fall. I'm almost forced to go wr wr. If a rb like gore or mjd happen to fall to me at 1.07, I'd be in a tough spot. Same if someone like dmc falls to me at 2.04. I guess that wouldn't be a terrible problem tho. Hmmmm
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