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Total Quarterback Rating

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Total Quarterback Rating

Postby LMack » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:14 am

Although ESPN has lagged behind the baseball sabermetric community, they appear to be moving forward in the world of football. ESPN has developed the Total Quarterback Rating.

The Total Quarterback Rating takes into account a larger number of variables than the nearly 40-year-old NFL Passer Rating system -- including down and distance, field position and importance of the game situation.

The new QBR weighs rushes, passes, sacks, fumbles, interceptions and penalties and calculate the per-play net impact of the quarterback. As an example, a pass completion on third down that yields a first down is worth more than a completion for the same yardage that doesn't result in a first down. Plays in closely contested games also count for more in the system.


They are airing a special on ESPN at 8 o'clock tonight discussing it, and there are several links worth perusing. What do you guys think?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/68332 ... ack-rating
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/68243 ... -variables
And to be subjective, an article defending the Passer Rating system
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... qb-rating/

*Just as a disclaimer, the stat is not useful for fantasy purposes.
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Re: Total Quarterback Rating

Postby u_fig_eater » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:26 pm

Of all quarterbacks from 2008 - 2010, Chad Pennington (2008) is 6th best. Matt Ryan (2008) is 5th. Wat

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/68345 ... br-seasons
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Re: Total Quarterback Rating

Postby Guru13 » Sat Aug 06, 2011 2:16 am

If Matthew Berry or Mel Kiper are involved it's obviously a flawed system.. Course if they're not maybe it's alright.
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Re: Total Quarterback Rating

Postby dgan » Sun Aug 07, 2011 3:20 pm

I've been curious about this - I've actually never had a problem with the old system because it isn't a "statistic", per se. Simply a reflection on statistics. However, improving this intrigued me. Until now...

Just gave it a quick look-see and am not impressed. It appears QBs may be penalized for either missed games or partially played games?? Rodgers ranked surprisingly low, for example. I also don't like giving weight to "meaningful" game time. Plays in close games score higher than if you have a 3TD lead? Converting 1st downs is equally, if not more important when you have a lead. QBs should not be penalized for blowing apart their opposition and rewarded for (ironically what I call Roethlisberger-ing) a messy game before managing a game-winning drive in the 4th Q.

I think they do this backward. They should construct a list of the best QB seasons, based on their eye test and stats. Then they should construct a formula that presents a very similar list. I think a little tweaking of the old system would have been a better idea than revamping the whole thing.
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Re: Total Quarterback Rating

Postby Hippo45 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 2:18 am

The passer rating needed to be revamped and I like what they did here. However, I must say that I dislike LT not being considered the best passer. I also dislike the fact that number of action plays don't have as much consideration. Vince Young is ranked 12th even though his action plays are half of what most other QBs have in a year.

Josh Freeman who I loved last year and thought based off his rookie year that he would be a stud in the league was ranked 27th. Not to shabby for the first full year he played in the league.

I'm curious to as what Brady's record setting 50 TD season would be rated under this system.

Interesting things I found from the list:

Romo, a person people think is/was a top 5 QB in the league, never ranked higher than 24.
Seneca Wallace is ranked higher than Matt Hasselbeck
Shaun Hill is ranked higher than Alex Smith
Matt Cassel in 2010 was barely better than Tyler Thigpen in 2008 and 2009 Cassel was much worse than Thigpen's 2008
Orton's 2009 rating was better than Cutler's 2010 rating
Favre was the worst starting QB in 2010
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