Picking Last - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Beginner's Forum

Picking Last

Moderator: Football Moderators

Picking Last

Postby Newfieboy64 » Sun Aug 07, 2011 2:54 pm

Hi all,
I donated to my fantasy football league last year and finished last, but I did learn some. This year I want to get an early start. I already know I am picking last in a 12 team format so I will get 2 picks in a row but have to wait for 22 more pick to pick again. What should I be thinking going in.
Most of the players in my league are pretty football savvy. I am a fan of the game but not much of a student.
Thanks in advance.
N64
Newfieboy64
Monday Morning Quarterback


Posts: 4
Joined: 7 Aug 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Picking Last

Postby WaCougMBS » Sun Aug 07, 2011 4:59 pm

Hi there, and welcome to the Football Cafe! Great to see new faces 'round these parts - hope you stick around ;-D

As for the picks, I am liking RB-RB this year because of the depth of WR, but depending on who falls a RB-WR start wouldn't be bad either. To better answer your question, what are the particulars of your league (i.e. starting requirements, scoring rules, etc.) - these things will help me and others answer both this post and future inquires as well.

Keep us posted, and again, glad you stopped by the Cafe ;-)
Image
Av/sig by deluxe_247
WaCougMBS
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
Radio PimpEditorModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterCafecasterTrivia Time Trial ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 8164
Joined: 29 May 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: New to the "block"

Re: Picking Last

Postby Motown Blues » Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:14 pm

When I pick last, I am ecstatic...nothing beats "bookend" picks, as you ALWAYS have the ability to address a need with double picks every time. However, you will win or lose most leagues NOT by your first 2 picks (you're going to get quality guys early regardless), but by what you do with your picks in those deep, middle rounds. So don't stress too much about your approach, but it would be valuable to go in with a game plan. The tricky thing about #12 is there is SO much variability as to what might - or might not - be there when you draft.

Go to FANTASY FOOTBALL CALCULATOR and do lots of mock drafts. You can enter them over and over and just run thru the first few picks. This allows you to create scenarios depending on what's there: WR-WR (certainly viable in a PPR league), WR-RB, RB-RB, QB-RB, etc. You may want to draw position threshold points, like "I'll go with a QB in round one ONLY if Aaron Rodgers is there." And if he is, you've created a positional scenario for your first four rounds. Perhaps it's MJD: if he's there, you FOR SURE take him. That sort of thing. Bottom line, create 5-7 scenarios and stick to it, giving yourself a rough idea of the positions you'll grab in rounds 3-4. After that, rely on your homework. Don't get caught on the end of a positional run (start one) and don't over-reach for a DEF or QB (if you don't get one of the top few at a value pick).

What's interesting to me in this RBBC universe is that if you were to choose two NON-running backs, you may find that the quality of RB's in rounds 3-4 may not be all that much lower than what you might get at the end of the first round (e.g., Rashard Mendenhall). I don't know if you are in a PPR league, but if you got Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson at the end of round one, then came back with say, LaGarrette Blount and Ryan Mathews....wouldn't you be happy?

Good luck.
Motown Blues
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 659
Joined: 27 Jul 2007
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Detroit

Re: Picking Last

Postby B3N1ZJAM1N » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:00 am

Honestly your best option is to just play the board. If 11 RB's go then determine what tier the RB's left are in and most likely go with a WR. I preached all last year on never taking a QB in the 1st round, but after seeing Vick you may want to look at the people in your league and see if you have a chance to get him after those 2 picks....you prolly won't. I'm huge on RB's in the first rounds and I always have been....so since I won my league last year and have the #1 pick...I will be going RB. I honestly wouldn't mind having the last pick simply so I could think about taking Vick...maybe I'm up on the hype but he has a lot around him this year.
B3N1ZJAM1N
Head Coach
Head Coach

CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2036
Joined: 23 Aug 2010
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Picking Last

Postby Newfieboy64 » Mon Aug 08, 2011 6:59 pm

Wow!
Thanks for all of the replies. I have a lot of research to do. My situation is a little different because I work on a ship and internet time is relatively expensive so I can't constantly be online looking through the forums.
Our league is on Yahoo and I am told has a standard format with playoffs. And a new twist this year to keep people from not paying attention if they think they are out is $10 per loss.
I will be having a look on here as much as possible and perhaps I can even find a co-manager to help me out, because even though I don't expect to win, I do want to make a show of it and get better than last year.
N64
Newfieboy64
Monday Morning Quarterback


Posts: 4
Joined: 7 Aug 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Picking Last

Postby P1Army » Wed Aug 10, 2011 10:45 am

The age old adage of taking RBs early is dead in the water. The NFL is a passing league now and almost all systems are using a RBBC (Running Back by Committee) approach. In the early rounds you want to be thinking about consistency and there is no other position more consistent in fantasy than QB. Having a top tier passer is crucial to having a stellar season. These are the guys to target in the first 2 rounds. By the bottom of the 3rd they should all be gone.

Vick
Rivers
Rodgers
Brady
Brees
Manning
(Schaub)
(Romo)


If you can snag one of these guys you are going to be in great shape right off the bat. There are always out of nowhere receivers and backs that have breakout seasons or exceed expectations because the situation for them has changed. I don’t want you spreading this information around either I love playing in leagues where everyone is touting the importance of RB early and often. That lets high caliber passers and WRs fall to me.

The list below is a cumulative ADP (Average Draft Position) for 2010, take a look at the top 10 RBS selected. How many of those running backs finished in the top 10? Take another look at the list and tell me where you see guys like Peyton Hillis, Darren Mcfadden, Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster (All finished in the top 10 at RB in 2010). My point is that outside of the top few Backs i.e. Peterson, johnson, rice…the RB pool becomes murky and you can mine gold elsewhere.

Player ADP

1 Johnson, Chris TEN RB 1.56
2 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 2.46
3 Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 4.67
4 Rice, Ray BAL RB 4.93
5 Gore, Frank SFO RB* 7.46
6 Turner, Michael ATL RB 9.7
7 Jackson, Steven STL RB 12.89
8 Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB 18.46
9 Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB* 19.29
10 Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 21.03
11 Grant, Ryan GBP RB* 25.57
12 Greene, Shonn NYJ RB 26.45
13 Benson, Cedric CIN RB 31.15
14 Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 33.4
15 Thomas, Pierre NOS RB* 36.72
16 McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 39.56
17 Wells, Chris ARI RB 45.78
18 Addai, Joseph IND RB 46.42
19 Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB 48.61
20 Forte, Matt CHI RB 49.7
21 Best, Jahvid DET RB 51.02
22 Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 53.94
23 Brown, Ronnie MIA RB 57.35
24 Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 63.58
25 Jones, Felix DAL RB 67.57
26 Foster, Arian HOU RB 70.52
27 Bush, Reggie NOS RB 73.59
28 Barber, Marion DAL RB 79.37
29 Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB 80.21
30 Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB 85.3



Granted you can still dig up a 4,000 yard passer outside of that elite tier, Guys to look at are Eli Manning, Big Ben, Freeman, but these guys aren’t a sure thing. For the first round wrap around I would probably let all the RBS fall and grab a top tier passer of your choosing, Rivers being my consensus favorite out of the group (Vick is good too but he is just getting to be too expensive in drafts). Get a top tier WR Either Johnson, Roddy, Nicks, Wallace etc…and search for good RBs in improved systems this year in the round 3-4 wrap around.

Guys I like there of course would be Bradshaw (if he falls that far) Blount, Greene, Felix Jones, Ryan Grant, Ryan Matthews (but make sure you reach for Tolbert by round 7).

If your top 4 picks looked like

Tom Brady
Mike Wallace
Shonn Greene
Ryan Grant

I think you’d be off to a great start.
Send questions direct to my twitter account @gallegosdavidm
P1Army
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 319
Joined: 6 Sep 2009
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Picking Last

Postby Newfieboy64 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:42 am

Without starting a new topic I thought I would ask where I could find an live adviser during our fantasy league draft? I work on a ship and we will be conducting the draft while most of us are in Venice, Italy. But there will be people in Grand Cayman, Texas and Canada participating through skype. It is scheduled for Sept. 6th. Not sure of the actual time but I am sure it would be pretty early in the morning EST. I am guessing 7 or 8 am.
I am even willing to hire a co-manager to offer me advice during the entire season, any winnings would be shared equally and I will pay the dues.
Thanks in advance.
N64
Newfieboy64
Monday Morning Quarterback


Posts: 4
Joined: 7 Aug 2011
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Picking Last

Postby bigmck » Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:18 pm

I would suggest you give it a go by yourself. I haven't played on Yahoo, but on ESPN they have the players ranked for you so you have an idea of who are the best. I am sure Yahoo would be the same. It is much more fun to do your own thing. Next year then would be much better for you. Good Luck.
bigmck
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 82
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 9 Mar 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Picking Last

Postby P1Army » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:04 pm

I'll do it...hit me up on teitter

@gallegosdavidm and give me the details. I get a cut of the winning by the way if you win the championship.
Send questions direct to my twitter account @gallegosdavidm
P1Army
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 319
Joined: 6 Sep 2009
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Picking Last

Postby 204BC » Wed Aug 24, 2011 11:08 pm

bigmck wrote:I would suggest you give it a go by yourself. I haven't played on Yahoo, but on ESPN they have the players ranked for you so you have an idea of who are the best. I am sure Yahoo would be the same. It is much more fun to do your own thing. Next year then would be much better for you. Good Luck.


Yahoo's ranking system is terrible. It's based entirely on average draft position and it is apparent to me that 90% of the people playing in Yahoo leagues have absolutely no clue what they're doing because the ADP is really messed up, especially after the top 25 are gone. On the plus side, you can get some steals if the other people in your league are using Yahoo's rankings to do their drafts. I had A. Foster pegged as a top tier RB2 last year, which he obviously outperformed, and was hoping to get him in round 6 or 7. He was so far down the list when those rounds came that I waited even longer and got him in round 9 in one league and round 8 in another. Oh, and if you do IDP's, don't even bother looking at the rankings for that. They have Patrick Willis, the undisputed #1 IDP player for the past several years ranked like 1700th overall. Pathetic.
204BC
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant

Cafe WriterCafe RankerPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 542
Joined: 5 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: middle of nowhere USA

Next

Return to Beginner's Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 17:42 hours
(and 35 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact