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8th PICK? thoughts

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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby TheBull » Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:50 pm

Who...Blount is a lock for 1100 yds 10 TD's. That is an conservative projection. Gore is broken. Bradshaw is losing goal-line duties and short ydg carries. SJAX is broken. Forte will get u 5 TD'S. The only other back I can think of would be Hillis and I don't see a repeat of last year.
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby Dirt McGirt » Wed Aug 17, 2011 10:55 pm

I have the 8th pick in my league as well and have some of the same thoughts as you. Not sure how your league values qb's but its pretty passive in mine. I do think someone will take vick before 8 though (even if he is there i am passing). I am aware this isnt ground breaking information, but i like to talk out it out to come up with the best solution. Here is shake-down.

1. Peterson
2. Foster
3. CJ

4. Charles
5. Rice

I believe those 5 are a notch above the rest of the field. I believe the next 5 guys I am going to list are also about the same

Mendenhall
Mccoy
MJD
Turner
Mcfadden

I live in Steeler Country so I know a steeler homer will grab up Mendenhall prob at 5,6, or 7. So that leaves McCoy MJD Turner or McFadden for the 8 spot. Personally I would ride with mike turner but cant really argue any.
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby Dirt McGirt » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:06 pm

ps... Blount at 17 isnt that much of a reach. If one of the big 4 wrs (calvin, roddy, AJ, fitz) were available I would probably go that route though.

According to your planning your base would be McFadden/Blount. That feels a lil too boom or bust for me. Its okay to take a shot one a potential one year wonder but to do it with your fist two picks feels to risky.

I would feel better with an MJD or Turner paired up with one of those wr's if they make it back to you. It is probably a stretch at 17 for one of those guys to make it back but you never know...if people love qbs in your league Vick and Rodgers will go in the top 17. Those 10 rbs i mentioned will def go. That takes care of 12 players. Throw in those 4 WR's and thats 16 picks players. So actually it could be possible for one of those to comeback to you at 17.

Good luck.
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby TheBull » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:31 pm

Ya. I have tossed around Turner @8. That is probably the direction I go. I do really like Blount this year. Ball control type offense in TB. I think he is in for a coming out year. Turner/Blount nice ring to it. Check out Blounts last 4 games. Impressive. Also, he didn't play 16 games. Kid is the real deal.
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby Those About To Rock » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:55 am

I agree with the last post that there will be better backs than Blount. I like mendenhall and Turner more than I like DMC. I think going for 2x RBs is a fine strategy (though watch for a potential bomb WR to exist at your pick in r2). In the first two rounds, take the highest value regardless of position.
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby prophecy135 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:10 am

why not go for turner at 8 and try to grab one of the many backs listed after the turn? Turner is the feature back in a very run heavy offense and he gets all the goalline carries. I imagine someone in your league will reach on Rodgers and Vick, and someone will take AJ, Megatron, and Roddy those all would likely come just before your pick or just after. That leaves SJax (who i disagree with you, I dont think he's broken) Forte, MJD, DMC, Mendy, McCoy, Gore, Hillis, all to drop into your range. I do think Blount is a reach in the 2nd and I think many of the backs listed will be available at 17.

I see your point on Forte not getting enough TD's and his recieving doesnt do as much to help out there with your scoring system. Gore I understand if you're not sold on his health, but DMC and Hillis both missed games last year and Gore has only missed more then 4 games once in his career.

*edit*

After checking ADP's on mockdraftcentral, I retract my statement about Blount being a reach, as his ADP is 18.96. He does however have a high of 38, and there are guys such as Turner, DMC, MJD, Mendy, McCoy, Gore and Hillis all with higher ADP's
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby murphysxm » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:10 am

I just don't buy into the Blount love. He reeks to me of being this year's Shonne Greene. He ends the year with a great run and gets overdrafted the next year. I think Blount will do better than Greene did last year, but he will not be a 2nd round value IMO. SJax, Forte, Turner, Gore, Hillis, MJD and Bradshaw are all backs that might be there in 2 that should get drafted before Blount every single time.
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby TheBull » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:11 am

SJAX career is headed in the wrong direction. Same old Gore, injuries and NO QB=bad results. Bradshaw is losing carries. Your logic doesn't make sense
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby prophecy135 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:45 am

TheBull wrote:SJAX career is headed in the wrong direction. Same old Gore, injuries and NO QB=bad results. Bradshaw is losing carries. Your logic doesn't make sense

I dont see your point with SJax, for your scoring system he might not be a great fit, but he WILL get into the endzone, he may not get the yards he's gotten in the past with McDaniels there, but if they're inside the 10 I'd bet he's getting the ball..

Same old Gore? Gore averages 1100+ yards rushing, 7 TD's, close to 400 yards recieving and at least a TD there too. Yeah thats pretty bad.. I can see how the TD's are not as high as probably what Blount will get, but that extra points from recieving are bonus' Blount cant offer. As for injuries, last year was the ONLY year in his career he's missed more then 3 games. No QB typically means he's getting the ball MORE, and he's put up those numbers with the same QB's or worse every year.

Bradshaw losing carries? to who? Jacobs? I'm not sure how you can say that after 1 preseason game. If you're looking at the end of last year, you're comparing a banged up Bradshaw to a perfectly healthy Bradshaw. He was in a time share last year as well and still put up great numbers (1200+ yards and 8 TD's) and he had 7 TD's the year before.

If you like Blount take him, but you asked everyone for their opinion and we all gave it to you, you can't argue that OUR opinion is wrong. Everyone has their own draft and everyone will draft differently, we're just saying that WE would prefer others over Blount, and I specificially would prefer others to Blount due to the fact that he doesnt catch the ball out of the back field and I prefer to have more dimensional players who offer more then just rushing yards.

If you're worried about injuries with Bradshaw and Gore, I dont see why you're looking at McFadden who seems to get injured every year. At 8 you might as well go with Turner if he's available, and the n grab Blount in the 2nd, two very similar backs and will work well in you're scoring system.
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Re: 8th PICK? thoughts

Postby TheBull » Thu Aug 18, 2011 10:38 am

Your right. I am liking Turner more and more @8


Thanks
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