I'm in a PPR league, that also values all TD's as 6 points, including passing td's. With this scoring system, how early would you pull the trigger on an elite QB? It seems like with this scoring structure, the top few qb's are very important, as well as the top tier WR's? Thoughts?
I agree with the previous post. I would target those pass catching RB's like Foster, Charles, Rice, Mccoy in the 1st depending on where your picking, and if you want a top QB then you will have to get him in the 2nd or the 3rd, but if you don't get one of the top guys, i would definitely wait and grab a guy like ryan or freeman or even stafford later in the draft who should put up some good numbers. Unless ur super high on Vick or Rodgers, i would suggest taking a dual threat RB with ur first pick.
In previous drafts, I've always gone QB later in the draft and still managed to have successful teams. This past season I almost won our league (lost by a point in the semi-finals) and was the second highest scoring team, but was still hindered by not having a top end pass caller.
Yes, you can get great value out of a guy like Eli Manning, and he will certainly have a few 30+ point games sprinkled in there. And yes, when you look at the hard statistics, Manning's 23.23 points per game (7th among QB's) is hardly less than brother Peyton's 26.43 points per game (1st among QB's), especially from a draft value standpoint.
However, I think this is a truly flawed statistic. Digging deeper into the stats, Eli Manning had only eclipsed his 23.23 average eight times. The other eight weeks he finished with less than 19 points six times, including finishing with less than 10 points twice. Compare that to Peyton Manning, who, while he was equally as (in)consistent in hitting his average point total mark (which he did nine times), Peyton seldom had a bad week. He finished with less than 19 points only three times, less than 10 points only once, and had eleven weeks of 25 points or more.
I'm not saying you can't win championships with Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and co. I'm just saying the difference between the elite QB's and good QB's is bigger than the stats indicate in fantasy football.
But you didn't ask that.
You asked how early you'd pull the trigger on a QB in PPR leagues. My answer is early, and my justification is Brandon Lloyd, Stevie Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Peyton Hillis, Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, and so on and so forth.
Josh Freeman sure did have a nice coming out party last year, but he was still nothing compared to fantasy QB's like Rodgers and Brady. The same can't be said for the other skill positions, where depth picks like Darren McFadden and Austin Collie became fantasy superstars while early round choices like DeAngelo Williams and Pierre Thomas vanished into oblivion.
My personal strategy this year is to go QB-WR in the first two rounds of my PPR draft. Brees and Brady both seem like solid choices this year, while solid WR 1's like Larry Fitzgerald and Hakeem Nicks (who I'm sold on, despite only have one good season) should be around at the end of round one.
After that, it's a melting pot. Some of my guys will bust, some will boom. But I hope and feel that as long as I have an elite QB giving me a consistent 23-25 points with the occasional blow up 32+ week, I'll be able to build a consistent and top end fantasy squad.
Just something to think about. People shit on the QB position too much in fantasy.