Sex Panther wrote:It's not a Beanie vs. Hightower thing, it's a Hightower is being way overdradted/over rated thing. Washington sucks and Hightower is mediocre at best, yet he is being drafted in the 5th round - like as a lowend RB2/highend RB3 - I just don't see that. IMO he's being drafted like 4 or 5 rounds early.
I agree with this general assessment. To me, Hightower is the kind of back that if he is available later on after I'm done picking a lot of my "key" guys and need a RB3 or RB4 who could be a decent fill in guy or something, then I might take him but I definitely don't trust him to be someone I want to be relying on for anything at all this season. I wouldn't feel comfortable at all with him as my RB2 and not really even as my primary backup RB or anything like that. I don't think Hightower is anything special talent wise and the combination of that fact and how fickle Shanny can be just makes him a risk to even keep his job all season as a starter. Plenty of options out there so why take a chance there?
To provide some historical perspective on these rankings, Hightower was ranked 34 before Ryan Williams was injured. I notified Daullaz awhile back and took he Williams out of the rankings and posted this comment:
Update: The rankings have been updated as of 8/30/11. All updates are mine and mine alone, so I have left the original average rank of each player intact.
So he didn't move Hightower up; he just took Williams out. That's a function of the fact that all of these rankings were compiled by multiple members and it was probably too hard to get them all back together again to change the average rank for each player.
That's a problem that discredits these rankings over rankings from another site that has a full-time staff. But that is the reality when we come to a site for information that is run by unpaid volunteers. That's not a knock on the Cafe (well, maybe it kind of is), but it is more a statement to manage your own expectations.
Rankings are supposed to tell you a player's value, but there are two kinds of value.
1) Actual value - how well the player will actually do on the field at the end of the season, relative to other players at his position
2) Perceived value - where all of the other sites/mags have a player ranked.
Perceived value is important because it gives us an idea where our competition may draft a player (i.e. 5.10 or 7.01). Actual value is important, because when compared to perceived value it helps us make a decision when to draft a player. For example, perceived value is 5.10, but actual value is 7.01, so I will not select him with my 5.10 pick. I will find someone else that allows me to get better value for my 5.10.
Perceived value is 5.10, but actual value is 5.02, so if he falls to me at 5.10, I will take him.
Most other sites are good about putting up Perceived Value. The FFC has always been good at posting actual value, meaning there are often significant deviations form the norm posted on other sites. This time, it didn't work because the rankings didn't get a wholesale update. Hightower is not the 34th best RB. He is better than that and the site should have been updated.
BTW - my personal opinion is that Hightower should not be taken as a #2 RB because that is well above his perceived value. But I think he has the actual value of a RB2.
Also - I think he will be better than Beanie.