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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby LMack » Wed Sep 07, 2011 11:35 am

Osk wrote:Tim has a higher ceiling than any other RB you'll find in the 4th round (in a 12 or 14 team league) or beyond. If you can grab him in the 5th or 6th, I wouldn't hesitate. If he's lasting past the 6th round, you're either in a 10 team league or in some n00b league. Hightower is the type of player that wins championships for teams: players chosen in the middle rounds that end up putting up 1st/2nd round production.

For the record, the same is true of Felix Jones, who should be drafted before Hightower (since his team is much better). No risk, no reward. Go ahead and pick Cedric Benson, who'll help you make the playoffs. Not bad. But then, watch the guy with Felix or Hightower cruise into the Finals. You're not going to win 3 games in a row in the playoffs if your players consistently only score 8 points a week. Playoffs yes, Championship no.

IF you do pick these guys, though, make sure you draft some good depth behind them in case they're not as good as predicted (or injuries occur). You should have good depth in any situation anyway, but especially when you're taking a risk like this.


My one gripe with this is the statement: "Tim has a higher ceiling than any other RB you'll find in the 4th round." Filtering the fantasyfootballcalculator ADP to 14 teams, PPR scoring, Knowshon Moreno (4.04), Mark Ingram (4.06), and Ryan Mathews (4.10) are all available in the 4th round. I know this could seem like basically arguing the semantics of your statement, but on the other hand I'm curious if you think Hightower has a higher ceiling than those 3 in PPR leagues?
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby joejlitz » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:33 pm

mattb47 wrote:
Sex Panther wrote:It's not a Beanie vs. Hightower thing, it's a Hightower is being way overdradted/over rated thing. Washington sucks and Hightower is mediocre at best, yet he is being drafted in the 5th round - like as a lowend RB2/highend RB3 - I just don't see that. IMO he's being drafted like 4 or 5 rounds early.


I agree with this general assessment. To me, Hightower is the kind of back that if he is available later on after I'm done picking a lot of my "key" guys and need a RB3 or RB4 who could be a decent fill in guy or something, then I might take him but I definitely don't trust him to be someone I want to be relying on for anything at all this season. I wouldn't feel comfortable at all with him as my RB2 and not really even as my primary backup RB or anything like that. I don't think Hightower is anything special talent wise and the combination of that fact and how fickle Shanny can be just makes him a risk to even keep his job all season as a starter. Plenty of options out there so why take a chance there?


To provide some historical perspective on these rankings, Hightower was ranked 34 before Ryan Williams was injured. I notified Daullaz awhile back and took he Williams out of the rankings and posted this comment:
Update: The rankings have been updated as of 8/30/11. All updates are mine and mine alone, so I have left the original average rank of each player intact.

So he didn't move Hightower up; he just took Williams out. That's a function of the fact that all of these rankings were compiled by multiple members and it was probably too hard to get them all back together again to change the average rank for each player.

That's a problem that discredits these rankings over rankings from another site that has a full-time staff. But that is the reality when we come to a site for information that is run by unpaid volunteers. That's not a knock on the Cafe (well, maybe it kind of is), but it is more a statement to manage your own expectations.

Rankings are supposed to tell you a player's value, but there are two kinds of value.

1) Actual value - how well the player will actually do on the field at the end of the season, relative to other players at his position
2) Perceived value - where all of the other sites/mags have a player ranked.

Perceived value is important because it gives us an idea where our competition may draft a player (i.e. 5.10 or 7.01). Actual value is important, because when compared to perceived value it helps us make a decision when to draft a player. For example, perceived value is 5.10, but actual value is 7.01, so I will not select him with my 5.10 pick. I will find someone else that allows me to get better value for my 5.10.

or

Perceived value is 5.10, but actual value is 5.02, so if he falls to me at 5.10, I will take him.

Most other sites are good about putting up Perceived Value. The FFC has always been good at posting actual value, meaning there are often significant deviations form the norm posted on other sites. This time, it didn't work because the rankings didn't get a wholesale update. Hightower is not the 34th best RB. He is better than that and the site should have been updated.

BTW - my personal opinion is that Hightower should not be taken as a #2 RB because that is well above his perceived value. But I think he has the actual value of a RB2.

Also - I think he will be better than Beanie.
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby mase088 » Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:06 pm

Hightower just isn't going to be as good as everyone is hyping him to be this year. He deserves a rank at 34, at least for now. He is going to be on a very bad team, with a terrible QB no matter who they start. Teams are going to stack the box against Hightower. Combine that with him probably splitting some time with other RB's, and not being the best talent, and we have ourselves a RB ranked at 34.

He's a decent player, in a bad situation for fantasy football, which is why he was ranked that way.
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby joejlitz » Thu Sep 08, 2011 12:47 pm

mase088 wrote:Hightower just isn't going to be as good as everyone is hyping him to be this year. He deserves a rank at 34...

It's hard for me to believe that, with only 32 teams in the NFL, a starting RB in this league is worth only a 34. :-B
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby mase088 » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:10 pm

There are several teams with their RB's in a timeshare, as I'm sure Hightower will be to an extent. Maybe they feel that both Rb's that get the ball on teams like NO, Car, NYG and the like are better than Hightower.
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby Hippo45 » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:26 pm

mase088 wrote:There are several teams with their RB's in a timeshare, as I'm sure Hightower will be to an extent. Maybe they feel that both Rb's that get the ball on teams like NO, Car, NYG and the like are better than Hightower.


NO??? They have not had a decent running game since Payton took over. I would take my chances with Hightower over any Saint running back. They have 3 different people that could see plenty of action which makes them terrible options on a week-to-week basis.
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby Sex Panther » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:45 pm

Hippo45 wrote:
mase088 wrote:There are several teams with their RB's in a timeshare, as I'm sure Hightower will be to an extent. Maybe they feel that both Rb's that get the ball on teams like NO, Car, NYG and the like are better than Hightower.


NO??? They have not had a decent running game since Payton took over. I would take my chances with Hightower over any Saint running back. They have 3 different people that could see plenty of action which makes them terrible options on a week-to-week basis.


That's not a true statement, they had a very good rushing offense when they won the Super Bowl in 09.

6th in yardage - 2106 (131.6/game)

T5th in YPC - 4.5

T7th in attempts - 468 (29.2/game)

This was also predicated on their defense being a turnover machine that year - 26 INT, 13 FR... lots of short fields to work with.
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby Hippo45 » Thu Sep 08, 2011 1:55 pm

Sex Panther wrote:That's not a true statement, they had a very good rushing offense when they won the Super Bowl in 09.

6th in yardage - 2106 (131.6/game)

T5th in YPC - 4.5

T7th in attempts - 468 (29.2/game)

This was also predicated on their defense being a turnover machine that year - 26 INT, 13 FR... lots of short fields to work with.


Why did you mention team stats and not individual stats because that is all people care about in fantasy football? Pierre Thomas that year was the 20th best running back. So he was a low end RB 2 in most leagues. Reggie Bush was ranked 35th and Mike Bell was ranked 41st. They always have an RBBC which makes them useless. I wouldn't feel comfortable with the Saints running backs.
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby Sex Panther » Thu Sep 08, 2011 2:28 pm

Is my math wrong or isn't a 20th ranked RB extremely startable in just about every fantasy format where 2 RB are startable?

The vast majority of leagues of are the 10+ team variety, a majority of those employ a flex position which allows upto 3 RB's to start. 10 x 3 = 30 (20th ranked RB solid option), 12 x 3 = 36 (20th ranked RB extremely good option, 35th ranked RB viable option), 14 x 3 = 42 (20th ranked fantastic RB option, 35th ranked RB solid option, 41st ranked RB viable option), 16 x 3 = 48 (20th ranked RB outstanding option, 35th ranked RB solid option, 41st ranked RB viable option).

And again, let me check the math, isn't a 20th ranked RB better than a 34th ranked RB?

And, no math involved in this one - isn't the head coach in Washington pretty universally hated in fantasy football for his penchant of using a variety of running backs in multiple combonations of RBBC's?

And yes, I would much rather have Ingram over Hightower in every format without hesitation.
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Re: Criticizing Cafes preseason rankings...

Postby joejlitz » Thu Sep 08, 2011 5:41 pm

Sex Panther wrote:
Hippo45 wrote:
mase088 wrote:There are several teams with their RB's in a timeshare, as I'm sure Hightower will be to an extent. Maybe they feel that both Rb's that get the ball on teams like NO, Car, NYG and the like are better than Hightower.


NO??? They have not had a decent running game since Payton took over. I would take my chances with Hightower over any Saint running back. They have 3 different people that could see plenty of action which makes them terrible options on a week-to-week basis.


That's not a true statement, they had a very good rushing offense when they won the Super Bowl in 09.

6th in yardage - 2106 (131.6/game)

T5th in YPC - 4.5

T7th in attempts - 468 (29.2/game)

This was also predicated on their defense being a turnover machine that year - 26 INT, 13 FR... lots of short fields to work with.

Agreed. These stats are pointless in FF. And a 20th ranked RB as your RB2 may win you a championship, but probably not likely. You have to have a hell of a lot of strength at the other positions.
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