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Cam Newton is not a fluke

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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:36 am

u_fig_eater wrote:He doesn't have a legit WR other than Steve Smith. AFAIK a rookie QB has never finished in the top 10 (correct me if I'm wrong). ARI secondary sucks.


You're wrong. As examples, Manning and Marino both lead the AFC in passing in their rookie years.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=list/rookieqbs

You might notice a few familiar names there ...
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby u_fig_eater » Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:00 am

DraftDodger wrote:
u_fig_eater wrote:He doesn't have a legit WR other than Steve Smith. AFAIK a rookie QB has never finished in the top 10 (correct me if I'm wrong). ARI secondary sucks.


You're wrong. As examples, Manning and Marino both lead the AFC in passing in their rookie years.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=list/rookieqbs

You might notice a few familiar names there ...


You're right, but barely. Manning was the 10th best fantasy QB in 1998. Marino, on the other hand, was QB14 his rookie year. I didn't bother checking the others.

http://www.fantasyplaymakers.com/histor ... position=1
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Sep 16, 2011 1:33 am

u_fig_eater wrote:
DraftDodger wrote:
u_fig_eater wrote:He doesn't have a legit WR other than Steve Smith. AFAIK a rookie QB has never finished in the top 10 (correct me if I'm wrong). ARI secondary sucks.


You're wrong. As examples, Manning and Marino both lead the AFC in passing in their rookie years.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=list/rookieqbs

You might notice a few familiar names there ...


You're right, but barely. Manning was the 10th best fantasy QB in 1998. Marino, on the other hand, was QB14 his rookie year. I didn't bother checking the others.

http://www.fantasyplaymakers.com/histor ... position=1


Tarkenton was 4th, and coincidentally was a scrambler like, um, Newton. I hate going back 50 years to back up my point. LOL. Seriously though, Newton can throw and scramble like Tarkenton, and is a bigger guy. I can see him having a huge fantasy season, with perhaps a few horrible games squeezed in to frustrate owners. Keeping drives alive with his legs gives him a chance to boost his passing stats.
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby biju » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:05 am

I was one of the few who thought Cam Newton looked like the real deal and took him in a dynasty draft. That said, I think people are getting *way* ahead of themselves anointing him the next elite QB. It's been exactly one week and even if he was breaking records, he was doing it against the Cardinals who have a very suspect secondary.

Extrapolating is a funny thing after only one game as it says that Donovan McNabb is going to throw for only 624 yards this season while Tom Brady throws for 8,272. We know it isn't going to happen like that, so let's calm down the expectations a bit. If you think he's going to do that every week, I'm going to have bad news for you in about two days...
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby LMack » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:30 am

A significant chunk of Cam Newton's value comes from those potential rushing touchdowns. A lot of those rushing touchdowns depend on the health (or lack there of) of Carolina's two runningbacks. The last year the Carolina Panthers had one single quarterback throw over 3000 yards, DeAngelo Williams scored 18 rushing touchdowns. Its been hard to gauge the backs RZ effectiveness in recent years as the RBs have either been injured or on an offense so horrible that few opportunities presented themselves.

Neither DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart received any carries in red zone on Sunday. The days of DeAngelo Williams scoring 18 touchdowns seem very over. DWilly looked slow with The Daily Show looking a little more explosive. I'm not overly confident in either of the Panthers backs though, so Newton could get to finish of his drives either with his legs or his arm.
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby Sex Panther » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:54 am

He threw for an astounding, rookie 1st game (or is it all time rookie) record 422 - yes.

He exceeded all expectations for a QB making his 1st NFL start - yes.

He played pretty well on the road all things considered - yes.

He has the ability to run the ball - yes, but still only managed 18 yards on the ground on 8 carries (2.3 YPC) - he did score a TD (on a play I'm sure Riveria cringes at watching).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59H4jmcE ... re=related

He did this against what appears to be among the worst secondaries in the NFL - yes.

He benefits from having a really, really good WR to throw to - yes.

There's another decent WR opposite of Steve Smith - no, although Olsen & Shockey are both decent at the TE position.

The Panthers are going to throw ball 58% of the time - not if they can help it.

The Panthers are going to attempt 590+ passes this year - in all likelyhood, no (that would have been 5th in the NFL in 2010, tied for 5th in the NFL in 2009, 5th in 2008, NFL teams avearge in the neighborhood of 1000 pays per season - give or take a few, with the personel they have in place - and the money spent on Williams, I'm fairly confident in saying they'd like to run the ball more than 410 times.)

Newton is going to run the ball 8 times a game (128 on the season)? In all likelyhood, no (Vick's season high is 123 back in 2006, Vince Young's high is 93 back in 2007, and they have 2 pretty good RB's in Williams & Stewart).

The 2 TD passes to Smith were high degree of difficulty passes - no.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84xTZdfShEg the 26 yarder, no pressure simple toss into single coverage.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3n3NA6h ... re=related the 77 yarder - he was so wide open it's not even funny & Newton nearly allowed the DB to catch him w/ no loft on the ball.

He was good on 3rd down - not really (3 of 7, sacked twice)

He was good in the 2nd half - not really (15/24, 224, 0 TD, 1 INT, 75.7 QB rating)

Was he good when the Panthers were leading - no not at all (3/6, 50% completion, 39 yards, 1 INT)

IMO, hitching one's wagon to a rookie QB on what figures to be a pretty bad team after 1 (granted magical) week, regardless of his his precieved potential for fantasy dominance at some point, is probably not a good idea.

Another thing to consider is that mobile (ie. running) QB's tend to open themselves up for an abundance of hits, hence making them more prone to injury (think Vick or either Young - Steve or Vince).

Considering the opponent that's rolling into Carolina this weekend, I would seriously temper expectations. Green Bay is going to be the other end of the spectrum for the Newton litmus test.

He doesn't have the benefit of seeing Arizona every week - and even the Cardinals seemed to have figured him out a litle bit in the second 1/2.

Best case I think he's capable of putting up Vince Young type numbers this year & if all goes perfectly Mike Vick type numbers down the road.
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby Guru13 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:48 pm

DraftDodger wrote:Tarkenton was 4th, and coincidentally was a scrambler like, um, Newton. I hate going back 50 years to back up my point. LOL. Seriously though...

That's not even relevant. Like at all.
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Sep 16, 2011 3:17 pm

Guru13 wrote:
DraftDodger wrote:Tarkenton was 4th, and coincidentally was a scrambler like, um, Newton. I hate going back 50 years to back up my point. LOL. Seriously though...

That's not even relevant. Like at all.


It's totally relevant to the claim made that no rookie QB had ever finished in the top 10, though as you might notice I LOLed at having to use Tarkenton as an example.

I'm simply in agreement with the OP that Newton is no fluke. He will probably have horrible rookie games, and I'd only start him vs. great match-ups (and a little later in the season when we can be more sure of those match-ups).

I don't think anyone here is trying to argue that you should declare Newton an instant stud and plug him in every week.
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby abrunn11 » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:26 pm

What happened this past Sunday was a perfect storm that will most likely NEVER happen again. Newton went against what will probably be the worst pass defense in the NFL this year and against a team that did not have any game film on him. Newton also benefited from a 77 yard TD that came after a blown coverage, something you cannot rely on.

Newton as absolutely ZERO chance of being a top 10 QB this season, ZERO. I am predicting a line of 13/31 178 0/3 this week.
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Re: Cam Newton is not a fluke

Postby Sex Panther » Fri Sep 16, 2011 4:31 pm

abrunn11 wrote:

Newton as absolutely ZERO chance of being a top 10 QB this season, ZERO. I am predicting a line of 13/31 178 0/3 this week.


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