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NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

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NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby WebHamster » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:04 pm

We’re used to surprising results in Week 1, so though a lot of final scores were shocking in nature last weekend, nothing should have shocked us entirely. Buffalo broke out for a 34-point win on the road against a division winner, while Super Bowl favorites like Pittsburgh, Atlanta and New Orleans dropped their first games [...]

http://www.fantasyfootballcafe.com/2011 ... ings02.php
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby WickedSmaat » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:12 pm

I'm surprised by the drop of the Saints and Steelers in the rankings to be so far for some potentially potent teams. I really like the Lions but I'm not totally sold on them being above either of them. But I don't expect the Pack to move out of the 1st spot at all this year ;)
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby mattb47 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:50 pm

I'd say that I'm most surprised and confused as to why New Orleans dropped 6 spots from #6 to #12 after losing a VERY close game that literally came down to the last play against the team ranked 1st? That to me makes no sense whatsoever.
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby losercore » Sat Sep 17, 2011 8:57 pm

The Chargers suprise me at 4. Really? Yea they won, but they were behind for the majority of the game to the worst team I have ever seen play football. I am not even sure the Vike's were playing football.

That seems over-rated to me.
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby mattb47 » Sat Sep 17, 2011 9:14 pm

Yea...I think the biggest problem I generally have with power rankings at this level is the amount of overreactions to the smallest things. Here's what I think from the list:

Overrated:
#3 Philadelphia - Sure they won last week but it wasn't a big convincing win in my eyes. They were having trouble early against them and it wasn't until 75% of the Rams significant players got hurt that they decided to pull away and win. They have to show a lot more in my eyes before I put them that high against some of the other teams.

#4 San Diego - They did win in a very Norv Turner like unconvincing fashion which seems to be the norm for them. I mean at some points the front office people have to see that Norv manages to get less out of the talent that he has than almost any other coach in football.

#6 Houston - Convincingly beat a really bad looking Colts team playing its first game without Manning in many many years. They have to show more against a decent or good team before I can feel good with them this high.

#8 Detroit - Looked pretty good against Tampa but I'm not sure if #8 is the right spot for them quite yet. Another one of those let's see them keep doing it against better teams before we put them into this upper class of teams.

Underrated:
#10 Pittsburgh - I'm sure you guys saw this coming from me but while they played downright awful last week, I have a hard time seeing them being no better than the 10th best team in the league. That was one of those performances that was so bad that they will likely never play another game that bad in the Big Ben era. They'll probably be back up higher again after this week.

#12 New Orleans - Lost a very close game on the road against the top rated reigning Super Bowl Champs and they drop down 6 spots? Sorry, but this team is still very dangerous and very good and definitely not deserving of a #12 ranking.
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby losercore » Sat Sep 17, 2011 9:28 pm

mattb47 wrote:Yea...I think the biggest problem I generally have with power rankings at this level is the amount of overreactions to the smallest things. Here's what I think from the list:

Overrated:
#3 Philadelphia - Sure they won last week but it wasn't a big convincing win in my eyes. They were having trouble early against them and it wasn't until 75% of the Rams significant players got hurt that they decided to pull away and win. They have to show a lot more in my eyes before I put them that high against some of the other teams.

#4 San Diego - They did win in a very Norv Turner like unconvincing fashion which seems to be the norm for them. I mean at some points the front office people have to see that Norv manages to get less out of the talent that he has than almost any other coach in football.

#6 Houston - Convincingly beat a really bad looking Colts team playing its first game without Manning in many many years. They have to show more against a decent or good team before I can feel good with them this high.

#8 Detroit - Looked pretty good against Tampa but I'm not sure if #8 is the right spot for them quite yet. Another one of those let's see them keep doing it against better teams before we put them into this upper class of teams.

Underrated:
#10 Pittsburgh - I'm sure you guys saw this coming from me but while they played downright awful last week, I have a hard time seeing them being no better than the 10th best team in the league. That was one of those performances that was so bad that they will likely never play another game that bad in the Big Ben era. They'll probably be back up higher again after this week.

#12 New Orleans - Lost a very close game on the road against the top rated reigning Super Bowl Champs and they drop down 6 spots? Sorry, but this team is still very dangerous and very good and definitely not deserving of a #12 ranking.




LIKE ;-D

I have to agree with all of this. I might agree with Detriot being a much better team, but #8 is insane.
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby daullaz » Sun Sep 18, 2011 10:26 am

While certain teams looked better or worse, the only thing that matters is wins or losses in the NFL. I think while I'm putting the majority of the emphasis on Week 1 results, most of you are essentially thinking about the rankings in terms of FO's DVOA. They do such a good job over there that I don't see any reason to recreate that line of thinking -- in fact, if I went that way with it I may as well just copy and paste their rankings.

I aimed to keep my initial rankings consistent for teams with the same record and not alter things too much based on what happened in Week 1 (which seems counter-intuitive to my earlier statement, I know). If the Lions and Saints end up fighting for a Wild Card, the Lions have a one-game advantage already, so I wanted to rank potential 1-0 playoff teams ahead of all potential 0-1 playoff teams. However, when it came down to figuring out who should rank ahead of whom between 0-1 teams, I kept the original order for the most part.

Hope this explanation helps see my thought process for this week. I'm sure the rankings will move more toward how you guys are envisioning them as more games are in the books.
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby mattb47 » Sun Sep 18, 2011 11:12 am

daullaz wrote:While certain teams looked better or worse, the only thing that matters is wins or losses in the NFL. I think while I'm putting the majority of the emphasis on Week 1 results, most of you are essentially thinking about the rankings in terms of FO's DVOA. They do such a good job over there that I don't see any reason to recreate that line of thinking -- in fact, if I went that way with it I may as well just copy and paste their rankings.

I aimed to keep my initial rankings consistent for teams with the same record and not alter things too much based on what happened in Week 1 (which seems counter-intuitive to my earlier statement, I know). If the Lions and Saints end up fighting for a Wild Card, the Lions have a one-game advantage already, so I wanted to rank potential 1-0 playoff teams ahead of all potential 0-1 playoff teams. However, when it came down to figuring out who should rank ahead of whom between 0-1 teams, I kept the original order for the most part.

Hope this explanation helps see my thought process for this week. I'm sure the rankings will move more toward how you guys are envisioning them as more games are in the books.


I don't think that's necessarily true that you would need to copy and paste anything from anyone to take more things into account. To me, a power ranking like this seems rather pointless if you weigh the last week's wins and losses so heavily that they outweigh general common sense in how you're placing teams there. I mean the idea of a power ranking system is to rank the teams top to bottom to see which teams are best and worst in the league at that point in the season.
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby DraftDodger » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:06 am

I'm pretty impressed with the rankings. Overall, the higher-ranked teams tended to win their games, with a few head scratchers that suggest a team was mis-ranked with only one game to go by.

The Ravens/Titans outcome in particular calls for a re-evaluation of those teams in the rankings. It looks like it just took Matt H. an extra week to get up to speed with the offense. I suspect they need to rise quite a bit in the rankings. If the Titans are really that much better than we thought, however, it might also mean that the Ravens don't have to fall far (if at all) in the ranks.

It's basically a wash when a good team beats a good team, a great team beats a great team, or a lousy team beats a lousy team. The Pats' win over SD doesn't mean anything to the rankings. Either team could have won that game, with the slight edge to the Pats. I suspect that most of the adjustments (to the rankings) will be conservative this week, with maybe 2 or 3 teams making a big move in one direction or the other.

Given that the article writer had no same opponent comparisons available after the first week, I think he did an excellent job with the power rankings. I'll be watching these all season to see how the accuracy holds up, but it's impressive so far.
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Re: NFL Rankings: Reacting to Week 1

Postby daullaz » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:46 pm

Thanks for the compliment. I'd like to shoot the Titans up in the rankings as I thought they were a nice sleeper heading into the season, but that Week 1 loss to the Jaguars now looks particularly awful. We'll see how it goes -- it's going to be tough with all the 1-1 teams now out there, and even tougher since some deserve to be ranked higher than certain 2-0 teams.
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