Thanks for the words of wisdom ... I will def consider all the issues you addressed. It seems like its going to come down to a "gamble", and Im not a real big gambling man. we will see, I think im going to leave his offer on the table for now, and let it ferment and see how things go this weekend. maybe things will look differently next week if he still has the offer up.
Fancycash34 wrote:The more and more I think about this trade I think you have to do it. Cam should help solidify who you are going to start at QB each week and Foster will be back to his regular old self next week...i hope so anyways. I do like Vernon way more than Fred but thats a small price to pay for the other two players. Last 2 years Vernon on 7 TDs and 13 TDs two years ago...he's just off to a slow start this year. I think you're getting the better end of this deal, it is a pretty big move but I think you're getting the better end of this deal. GL and thanks for your help with mine.
it is a pretty big move, thats whats worrying me ... this is my first time playing FF, so I dont really know what Im doing! lol! but this move looks like it can make or break me! I have 2 really good RB's and a crappy QB right now, if I make this deal, I can possibly have a great fantasy QB and 2 great RB's or 1 or both of them could flop and Im stuck in a rut! I feel like Im at the casino!!!
Since this is your first time doing fantasy football I want to add something. It's only been two weeks, it's a 17 week season. Don't put too much emphasis on these first two weeks. Sure, it's a good indicator of whats to come but a lot of players will start playing both worse and better as the season goes on. Not to mention there will always be injuries occurring to good players.
I say these things because it seems as though you'd rather have Newton than Cutler, while giving up Mendenhall + Vernon to be receiving Foster (already said my dislike for him, I'd much prefer to have Rashard) and the Daily Show. For quick statistics for you, Newton, in his entire college career, only threw for more than 300 yards TWICE. Neither time was it for more than 335 yards. Yes, that's college and this is the NFL but my point is, he's never thrown the ball as much as he has and he's never thrown this many pass yards on a consistent basis. I'm not saying he's not capable of consistently putting up 300+ yards but it's highly doubtful when you look at his college career. He's always had a fairly good TD to INT ratio but this year he already has more interceptions than passing TD's (4 to 3). Most rookies end up throwing more picks than TD's their first year and the next few years they slowly turn around and start playing better. The one thing Newton has that most QB's don't have is the ability to run. It's clear Carolina loves having him rush when their inside the 5. Even if he only threw for 150 yards, 1 TD, 2 picks, if he managed to rush for 20 yards + had a rushing TD that still gives you 14 points. Which is a decent amount of points for a rookie that you might have been able to grab off the waiver wire. I think you can expect about 15 points from Newton each week, while he may have a 20+ week occasionally. Personally, if you gave me the option of having either Cutler or Newton for the rest of the season, I'd take Cutler. Last season he was the most sacked qb by far yet still managed an 84.1 qb rating with 3274 yards, 23 td's, and 16 picks. Which equates to about 190 points, which isn't bad at all. If my team wasn't doing too well and I needed to make a few moves since I thought my team was weak I'd consider this trade but I feel like your team isn't weak.
Add to the fact that you're dishing out Vernon (a top 5 TE) for The Daily Show. The Daily Show has huge upside, if DeAngelo goes down hes instantly a top 15 RB but you can't rely on that to happen. It's too risky. Vernon Davis is off to a slow start. I'm not worried nor should you be. The past two years he's ended up being a top 5 TE. Last year, he had a down year yet he still managed to get 900+ yards and 7 TD's which is great for a TE. It's not Antonio Gates numbers but Gates is usually so far ahead of the pack it's a joke. Last year he had a total of five games that were horrible. This year, he's already had two and both in succession but it happens. The other thing you need to look at is Alex Smiths' stats. Guess how many passing TD's hes thrown for so far? Only two. Guess how many yards he's throw for? 303 yards. Guess who's the leading receiver on the 49ers thus far? Vernon. Guess who has the most receptions thus far? Vernon. Guess who has the most targets thus far? Vernon. Stick with Vernon, he'll repay you, trust me.
I'm not saying to do or not do this trade, it's up to you but just consider all that I've said. Rookie fantasy players always put way too much emphasis on the first few weeks and they blow it out of proportion. Experienced owners know this and attempt to take advantage of it whenever possible.